Carlos Carrasco gets the start for the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, as they are on the road to take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Brennan Bernardino is set to go for the Red Sox, who are 10-9 this season. As for the Guardians, they are 12-6 and are currently the favorites on the money line (-127).

Thursday’s over/under line is at 9.5 runs, and first pitch is set for 1:35 PM ET. This American League matchup can be seen on NESN.

BOSTON RED SOX VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline -127

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 1:35 ET on Thursday, April 18th.

HOW TO BET THE GUARDIANS VS RED SOX:

  • We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 6 to 5
  • However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Guardians to cover
  • As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Boston picked up a 2-0 win over the Guardians in the most recent game of this series. The Red Sox offense only had five hits but still picked up a win thanks to a good outing from Tanner Houck, who went nine innings and didn’t give up a run. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were favored at -135 on the money line.

Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and there was no more scoring until the Red Sox pushed across the game’s final run in the 4th. As for the Guardians, they had their best chance to score in the 5th, but Houck got out of a bases-loaded jam.

Connor Wong was the only player in the game to homer while going 2/3 with an RBI. Jarren Duran also had two hits and scored a run for Boston. As for the Guardians, Ben Lively gave up just one run in five innings of work.

Guardians Records & Stats

Cleveland comes into today’s game in 1st place in the AL Central, leading the Royals by half a game. The Guardians have an overall record of 12-6 and have won four straight games vs. the Red Sox. These four straight wins came after dropping their series opener vs. the Yankees.

At home, the Guardians have gone just 3-3 this season, but they have been great on the road at 9-3. As the underdog this season, Cleveland has a 7-2 record compared to 5-4 as the favorite. Their overall series record is 4-1.

The Guardians have been a solid run line bet this season, going 12-6 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 9-3 against the run line. They have an average run margin of 2.0 runs per game this season, but that number jumps to 3.2 runs per game on the road. They have been a good bet as an underdog, going 8-1 against the run line in those games.

The Cleveland Guardians have played 17 games this season with an over/under line set at less than 9.5 runs. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 10-7. Today’s over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, and the Guardians have played just one game this season with an over/under line that high. In that game, the total was set at 9.5 runs, and the game went under.

Carlos Carrasco and the Cleveland Guardians are on the road to take on the Boston Red Sox. Carrasco has a no-decision in each of his first two starts of the season. He went 3 innings in his first start, giving up 1 run on 1 hit and struck out 6. In his last outing at home against the Yankees, he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up 5 hits and 5 strikeouts.

The Guardians have a few players with strong projections today. Steven Kwan has the 9th highest total hits projection in the league today. José Ramírez has the highest home run projection on the team and it’s 9th best in the league today. Andrés Giménez is 2nd in terms of total hits on the team.

Red Sox Records & Stats

With a record of 10-9, the Red Sox are in 5th place in the AL East, tied with the Rays and three games behind the division-leading Yankees. So far, they have really struggled against teams in their division, going 0-3.

At home, the Red Sox are just 3-6 this season, but they have been much better on the road at 7-3. Coming into today’s game, they have an overall series record of 3-1-1.

The Red Sox have a run line record of 10-9 this season, with an average run margin of +0.3 runs per game. They have been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 8-2, but have struggled at home, going just 2-7. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while it drops to -3.6 in losses.

With a combined run average of 8.3 runs per game, the Boston Red Sox have an over/under record of 8-10 this season. The average over/under line for their games has been set at 8 runs, but their over/under record when the line is set at 9.5 runs is 0-1. In total, only 10.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher.

Brennan Bernardino will be making his first start of the season for the Red Sox, as he has made 4 appearances out of the bullpen so far. In his last outing, he took the loss against the Guardians, going just 1 inning and giving up 1 earned run. In his first outing of the year, he went 1 inning and struck out 2 batters.

When looking at the Red Sox player props, we see that Triston Casas is not only projected to have the most hits on the team, but he also has the best odds to hit a home run for the Red Sox. In fact, his home run projection is 5th best in the league today. Tyler O’Neill is also expected to have a solid game, as he has the 3rd highest total hits projection on the team and the 2nd best odds to hit a home run for the Red Sox.