Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick 09/22/19

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Rafael Devers and the struggling Boston Red Sox will do battle against their divisional rival Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. New England Sports Network will broadcast the matchup. The game is slated to get underway at 1:10 p.m. ET.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Boston (+160) is coming into this one as the underdog to Tampa Bay (-170) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs. The odds for playing the game’s total sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. This game currently has a runline of Red Sox +1.5 (-135) and Rays -1.5 (+115).

The Rays are 92-63 straight up (SU) and 79-75 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle much for gamblers, gaining 0.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 6.3 units ATS. Tampa Bay has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 80-74 SU and have gone 63-90 against the spread. They’ve lost 26.3 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 35.7 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven.

Tampa Bay games have an over/under record of 75-71-8 in 2019. Boston has been a solid over bet with a total record of 85-65-3.

Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start for the visiting Red Sox. Eovaldi is 1-0 with a 6.19 ERA and 61 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with five strikeouts and a 16.20 ERA against Tampa Bay this year.

The Rays are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Ryan Yarbrough (11-4, 3.78 ERA), who has 112 punchouts and 17 walks as well as a WHIP of 0.94. Yarbrough is 2-0 with 16 strikeouts and a 4.80 ERA in one start against Boston this year.

As a unit, Tampa Bay’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have a 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 69 games against AL East foes, Rays starters have an ERA of 3.44 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.37.

Tampa Bay’s offense is putting up 4.8 runs per outing, including 4.7 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .231/.299/.371 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Rays’ batters have been led by Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows. Pham is slashing .276/.373/.453 with 20 home runs, 66 RBIs, 75 runs and 23 stolen bases, and Meadows has put up a line of .288/.360/.562 with 32 homers, 88 RBIs and 80 runs.

For the visitors, Boston’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.87 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.57 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.34, along with a K-per-9 of 10.56.

The Red Sox offense has slashed .268/.341/.467 on its way to 5.5 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Third baseman Rafael Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts continue to lead Boston’s offense. Devers is slashing .307/.358/.553 with 31 home runs, 112 RBIs and 121 runs scored, while Bogaerts is slashing .305/.380/.553 with 32 homers, 110 RBIs and 105 runs scored.

The Red Sox have lost 15.2 units and are 17-32 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 27 of those games, compared to 21 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Rays have netted 5.9 units and are 49-49 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 50 of those games, as opposed to 43 which went under the total.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Rays, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Trends

Boston has tallied 17 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Tampa Bay has 14 XBH over its last five.

The Red Sox have a team OPS of .808 this season and an OPS of .785 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Rays’ OPS stands at .759 overall and .754 against southpaws.

The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games SU.

Boston fielders have committed five errors over the last five games, compared to two errors for Tampa Bay over its last five.

The Red Sox have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.

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