It’s a late-night AL matchup at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, as the Mariners host the Red Sox. First pitch is set for 10:10 PM ET, and you can catch the action on RSNW. The Mariners are favored in this one, with a money line of -175 compared to the Red Sox at +145.

Brayan Bello will take the mound for the Red Sox, while Luis Castillo gets the start for the Mariners. The over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, with the over slightly favored at -107 compared to the under at -114.


The Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline -175

This game will be played at T-Mobile Park at 10:10 ET on Thursday, March 28th.


  • We have the Mariners winning by a score of 5 to 4
  • However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Red Sox to cover
  • As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Red Sox Records & Stats

The Red Sox missed out on the playoffs last season, finishing with a record of 78-84. In the American League, they were 10th and 5th in the AL-East. Their overall series record was 23-25-3.

At home, Boston went 39-42 last season, while their road record was also 39-42. As the underdog, the Red Sox were 38-48 last season, and they are currently listed as the underdog at +145.

Last season, the Red Sox finished with a run line record of 78-84, including a 36-45 record at home and 42-39 on the road. In games they won, their average scoring margin was +3.7 runs per game, compared to -3.4 runs per game in losses. Overall, their average run differential was exactly even at -0.0 runs per game. Last season, they were the underdog in 53.1% of their games, going 47-39 vs. the run line in those contests.

When looking at the Red Sox’s over/under record from last season, they finished 82-77, and their average over/under line was 9.0 runs per game. In their games with an O/U line of 7.5, the over/under record was 6-5. Last season, 93.2% of their games had higher O/U lines than 7.5 runs, and their games averaged a combined 9.6 runs per game. In their games, 65.4% of them finished with more runs than 7.5 runs.

Brayan Bello will be making his first start of the season against the Mariners, a team he faced twice last year. In those two appearances, Bello went 2-0 with an ERA of 1.95. Overall, Bello made 28 starts last season, going 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA. He had 15 quality starts and allowed a total of 24 home runs. Bello’s WHIP for the season was 1.34, and his FIP was 4.54. Last season, he averaged 7.57 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.58 walks per nine. For the year, Bello’s opponents had a batting average of .268 and an on-base percentage of .319.

At home last season, the Red Sox were one of the best hitting teams in the league, ranking 2nd in batting average at .270 and 5th in slugging percentage at .441. Overall, they were 5th in batting average and 9th in slugging percentage. On the road, their batting average dipped to 19th in the league at .232, and they were 17th in slugging percentage. For the season, Boston averaged 4.7 runs per game, which was 11th in the league. On the road, they averaged 4.5 runs per game, compared to 5.0 at home.

The Red Sox will be looking for big things from Rafael Devers and Triston Casas this season. Devers hit 33 home runs and drove in 100 runs last year, while Casas hit 24 home runs and drove in 65. Boston also added Tyler O’Neill from the Cardinals this off-season. O’Neill hit 9 home runs and drove in 21 runs last season.

Mariners Records & Stats

Seattle is looking to get back to the playoffs after missing out last season. They finished with an overall record of 88-74, which was good for 6th in the American League and 3rd in the AL West.

At home, the Mariners were 45-36, while they went 43-38 on the road. In night games, Seattle was 59-46 compared to 29-28 in day games. As the favorite, they went 66-46 last season.

As for today’s game, the Mariners are favored at -175 on the money line. Last season, they went 41-28 as the home favorite and 4-8 as the home underdog.

Seattle finished last season with a run line record of 77-85, including a home run line record of 32-49 and a road run line record of 45-36. Overall, they outscored opponents by an average of 0.6 runs per game. In games they covered the run line, their average scoring margin was +3.8 runs per game compared to -2.3 runs per game in games they did not cover the run line. Last season, they were the favorite in 69.1% of their games, going 47-65 vs. the run line in those contests.

Seattle’s over/under record last season was 81-77, and their average over/under line was 8.1 runs. In games with an O/U line of 7.5 runs, the over/under record was 25-19. Last year, 62.3% of their games had higher O/U lines than 7.5 runs, and their games had an average combined run average of 8.7 runs per game.

Luis Castillo is coming off a season in which he made 33 starts and finished with a record of 14-9. His ERA for the season was 3.33, and he finished with a WHIP of 1.10. Castillo’s batting average allowed was .215, and his on-base percentage allowed was .271. He finished the season with 18 quality starts and gave up a total of 28 home runs. Castillo’s strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season was 3.9, and he averaged 1.7 walks per game.

Seattle’s offense was a bit better on the road last season, averaging 5.0 runs per game compared to 4.4 at home. Overall, they were 12th in runs per game, scoring an average of 4.7 runs per contest. Their team batting average of .242 was 15th in the league, and they struck out the 2nd fewest times in the league. On the road, they had the 5th best slugging percentage and were 8th in home runs.

The Mariners will be looking to Julio Rodríguez to lead the team in home runs once again this season. Rodríguez hit 32 home runs last season while also driving in 103 runs. Cal Raleigh is also back after hitting 30 home runs last season. Mitch Garver is a new addition to the team after hitting 19 home runs last season.