All 30 MLB teams will be playing on Sunday, September 25, but these two from the NL East are quite attractive to the bettors, so make sure you check out the Braves vs. Phillies betting pick and odds.
Atlanta and Philadelphia will play the fourth of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park, and the Braves are -115 moneyline favorites on BetOnline Sportsbook, while the total is set at 8.5 runs. These NL East foes have met 15 times this year, before this series, and the Brewers lead 9-6. However, Philadelphia won the opening two games of this series, while Game 3 will be played on Saturday night.
Braves were ineffective in a massive loss to the Phillies
The Atlanta Braves lost the first two games of the series to the Philadelphia Phillies and scored just three runs in the last three games overall (all losses). That’s concerning for the reigning MLB champions who are fighting for the NL East title with the New York Mets. Considering that the Mets are three wins ahead, the time is running out for the Braves to catch them.
Austin Riley was the only Brave with a multi-hit display in a big 9-1 defeat in Game 2. Robbie Grossman drove the lone RBI with a sacrifice fly, while Jake Odorizzi dropped to a 5-6 record after a disastrous start. Odorizzi surrendered eight runs on ten hits with six strikeouts and three walks in 4.0 innings.
Charlie Morton (9-6) will take the mound for the 30th time this year when he faces the Phillies on Sunday. The 38-year-old right-hander owns a 4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 196/59 K/BB ratio across 163.0 innings.
Phillies beat the Braves on the wings of Nola and Hoskins
The Philadelphia Phillies are inching closer to a wildcard spot after winning the last three games, allowing just four runs in that stretch. The Phillies are battling the Padres and Brewers for two remaining spots in the National League, and are currently in the best position of all three teams to make the cut.
Rhys Hoskins homered and drove in four runs in a 9-1 victory over the Braves as he tormented Jake Odorizzi early on. Aaron Nola improved to a 10-12 record after pitching for six shutout innings with eight strikeouts and three walks. Philadelphia registered ten hits opposite Atlanta’s six.
Kyle Gibson (10-7) will get his 30th start of the year when he takes on the Braves on Sunday. The 34-year-old right-hander has a 4.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 128/44 K/BB ratio over 156.2 innings of work.
- 15-4 in the last 19 vs. National League East rivals
- 40-13 in the last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30
- 14-5 in the last 19 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
- 3-8 in the last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
- 1-5 in the last six Sunday games
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
Kyle Gibson is going through his worst month of the season. He registered a 9.68 ERA in four starts in September and allowed 4+ runs in three of those four. Although he played well against Atlanta in two starts this season (3.27 ERA in 11.0 innings), I don’t think he will have a good time on Sunday. Philadelphia already beat Atlanta twice in this series, and I am backing the visitors to conclude it with a victory. Charlie Morton doesn’t have excellent numbers against Philly but is in a better form than Gibson, which is the strongest argument to back the Braves in this one.
Pick: Take the Braves to win (-115)
I mentioned Morton’s not-so-great numbers against Philadelphia; he owns a 4.15 in four starts (21.2 innings) and a 0-1 record. Given that Morton allows a .296 batting average and Gibson a .305 BA in this matchup, I expect to see some runs in the opening few frames. Over is 4-0-1 in Morton’s last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record; Over is 3-0-1 in Gibson’s previous four home starts vs. a team with a winning record, while Over is 5-1 in the Phillies’ last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Pick: Go Over 8.5 points (-110)