The MLB betting action continues Tuesday, May 31, 2022, with the National League showdown from Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, so we bring you the best Braves vs. Diamondbacks betting pick and odds.
Atlanta and Arizona meet for the middle contest of a three-game series, and Monday night’s opener has been excluded from the analysis. The reigning champions are -165 moneyline favorites for Tuesday’s clash, while the Diamondbacks sit at +152 with a total of 9.0 runs on BetOnline Sportsbook.
The Braves need more from Charlie Morton
Frankly, the Atlanta Braves need more from a bunch of guys, but Charlie Morton has been a huge disappointment thus far. The 38-year-old righty carries a 3-3 record, 5.28 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 41/20 K/BB ratio across 44.1 innings into Tuesday’s date with the Diamondbacks.
The Braves are undefeated in Morton’s last four starts, but Charlie has allowed seven earned runs on 16 hits over his previous two showings and 9.2 frames of work. He’s surrendered three or more earned runs in six of his nine starts this season.
Atlanta beat Miami 6-3 last Sunday to clinch a three-game home set against the Marlins and improve to 23-25 on the season. It was the Braves’ sixth win in their previous ten outings. Over the last couple of weeks, Atlanta has recorded a decent .245/.303/.416 slash line and 3.57 ERA.
The D-backs just got swept by the Dodgers
The 23-26 Arizona Diamondbacks entered the Braves series riding a four-game losing streak. They just got outscored by the mighty LA Dodgers 26-8 in a four-game set at Chase Field. After a heavy 14-1 defeat in the opener, the D-backs battled bravely against the Blew Crew but couldn’t find a way to hit against the Dodgers’ stellar pitching.
Arizona hit 57 home runs in 2022, enough for the sixth-most in baseball. However, the Diamondbacks are scoring just 3.86 runs per game (24th in the MLB) on a .217/.299/.378 triple-slash (.239/.310/.384 league average) while posting a 4.20 ERA (also 24th).
Humberto Castellanos will take the mound Tuesday and face the Braves for the first time in his career. The 24-year-old right-hander is 3-2 with a pedestrian 5.22 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in eight starts and a couple of relief appearances in 2022. He pitched four innings in that 14-1 loss to the Dodgers, yielding six earned runs on ten hits.
- 7-3 in the last ten games against Arizona
- 4-1 in Charlie Morton’s last five starts
- 2-5 in the last seven games overall
- 2-8 in the last ten home games against Atlanta
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
I don’t expect Charlie Morton to improve a lot. The current Diamondbacks are hitting .305/.323/.405 in 37 at-bats against him. But I’m still backing the reigning champs to win on the back of their offense. Arizona has registered an awful 5.90 ERA in its last 14 games, and the Braves have to take advantage of Humberto Castellanos and his relievers.
Atlanta hasn’t impressed at the plated over the last couple of weeks (.719 OPS), but there’s a lot of room for improvement in the Braves’ offense. Arizona’s bullpen holds a 4.44 ERA and 4.27 FIP while striking out just 7.11 per nine innings.
Pick: Take Atlanta Braves at -165
The Braves’ bullpen sports the second-highest WAR in the majors (2.9), but it’s had ups and downs so far this season. Last week, the Braves’ relievers had a 3.71 ERA, allowing 1.01 home runs per nine innings.
Hereof, I’m expecting to see a high-scoring affair, especially if both Charlie Morton and Humberto Castellanos continue to struggle. The over is 6-3 in Arizona’s last nine games overall and 5-2 in Atlanta’s previous seven.
Pick: Go over 9.0 runs at +100