Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Knights and Horned Frogs. The game is starting at 5:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Horned Frogs at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth, TX. Get ready to place your bets! This Big 12 conference matchup has an over/under of 142.5 points, and TCU is favored to win by -8 at home vs. UCF.

UCF KNIGHTS VS TCU HORNED FROGS BETTING PICK

The Pick: UCF Knights +8

This game will be played at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena at 5:00 ET on Saturday, March 9th.

WHY BET THE UCF KNIGHTS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 73-71 in favor of the Horned Frogs.
  • Even though we have TCU winning straight-up, we like UCF at +8.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 142.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Can the Knights Pull Off a Road Win?

UCF is 15-14 overall this season, including a 6-11 record in Big 12 play. They have lost two straight games and are 3-7 on the road this season. In their last game, they lost to Houston by a score of 67-59.

As an underdog this season, UCF has gone 4-10, and they are 1-4 on the road over their last five games.

As the underdog this season, UCF has gone 8-5-1 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Knights are 7-3 vs. the spread. On the road, UCF has an ATS mark of 5-5 this year and they are 2-1 vs. the spread in their last three road games.

This season, the over/under record for UCF games is 14-14-1. So far, 16 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 142.5. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 128 points.

Most recently, the UCF offense finished with just 59 points vs. Houston. For the game, they hit 3/10 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 45.5%. Jaylin Sellers is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 16. Meanwhile, Darius Johnson also brings a PPG average of 14.1 into the game.

In the current season, the UCF defense has excelled, sitting 45th in the nation by allowing 66.7 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, UCF’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 41.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 31.9% this season.

Will TCU Win at Home?

TCU has been a much better team at home this season, as they have gone 12-5 compared to 8-5 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +13.1 compared to +3.9 on the road.

Overall, the Horned Frogs are 20-10 this season, including a 9-8 mark in Big 12 play. They have been favored in 22 of their 30 games, going 17-5 in those games.

As the favorite, TCU has gone 13-9 vs. the spread this season and 7-3 in their last 10 games as the favorite. At home, the Horned Frogs are 9-8 ATS this year and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games. Overall, TCU has an ATS record of 18-12 this season.

TCU’s over/under record this season is 16-14 and today’s line of 142.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season (149.1). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 150 points compared to their season average of 151.9 points per game.

TCU is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 93 points versus West Virginia. This output is higher than their season-average of 80.5 points per game. Leading the team in scoring was Emanuel Miller with 21 points. Jameer Nelson Jr. also added 17 points for the Horned Frogs.

Coming into today’s game, the TCU defense is giving up an average of 71.4 points per contest. The TCU defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 81 points and allowed West Virginia to connect on 4 threes.