Looking to win big? The Maple Leafs and Bruins face off at 8:00 ET on TBS. The Bruins are hosting the game at TD Garden in Boston, MA. The over/under for this matchup is currently set at 5.5 goals and the Bruins are the -1.5 favorite to win at home vs. the Maple Leafs.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS BOSTON BRUINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Bruins -1.5

This game will be played at TD Garden at 8:00 ET on Saturday, April 20th.

WHY BET THE BOSTON BRUINS:

  • With the Bruins being favored by 1.5, our NHL analytics models has this one playing out 4-3 in favor of the Bruins.
  • Take the Bruins on the moneyline
  • On the spread, we like Maple Leafs (+1.5)

Can the Maple Leafs Pull Off a Road Win?

On the season, the Maple Leafs are 46-26-10 and sit in 3rd place in the Atlantic Division. In the Eastern Conference, Toronto is 5th and has gone 22-28 against conference opponents. Over their last ten games, the Maple Leafs are 5-5 and have dropped their last two games.

When playing on the road this season, Toronto has gone 24-11-6, and they are 7-8-2 when listed as the underdog. In games against other teams from the Eastern Conference, the Maple Leafs have gone 11-15 this year. So far this season, Toronto has been the favorite in 65 of their 82 games.

On the road this season, the Maple Leafs have a puck line record of 18-23, and their average scoring margin away from home is +.6 goals per game. So far, Toronto has been the underdog in 17 games, and their puck line record as the underdog is 11-6.

When looking at their last ten games, the Leafs have gone just 4-6 against the puck line, and their puck line record for the season is 32-50. In their last three games, Toronto’s puck line record is 0-3, and they have 27 wins this season by multiple goals.

On average, Toronto’s games have finished with 6.9 goals per game. The season’s average over/under line stands at 6.5. In total, the Maple Leafs come in with an over/under record of 45-35-2.

Although Toronto has a straight up record of 1-2 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the puck line going 1-2. The team averaged 3 goals per game in these games.

For their offensive performance, the Maple Leafs come in averaging 3.6 goals per game this season, which is 2nd in the NHL. In the category of shots on goal per game, they are 7th in the league. Looking at how the Maple Leafs’ offense is performing during power plays, they are 12th in power play goals and 23rd in shorthanded goals.

Toronto’s current leading scorer is Auston Matthews. This season, he has 69 goals, which puts him 1st in the NHL. Matthews also comes into the game with 38 assists.

Defensively, the Bruins are currently 10th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are taking 30.4 shots per game against Boston. They also are 11th in shutouts, coming in with 5 shutouts.

Heading into this matchup vs. Boston, goalie Ilya Samsonov has started 40 games in this season. His current record is 23-7, and his save percentage stands at 0.707%.

Can the Bruins Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

At home this season, the Bruins have gone 24-11-6 and have been favored in 67 of their 82 games. Against Eastern Conference opponents, Boston has gone 30-20 and is in 4th place in the conference standings. Over their last ten games, the Bruins have gone 6-4 and have lost two straight games as the favorite.

Overall, Boston has gone 47-20-15 this season and is in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division. Against teams from their division, the Bruins have gone 18-8 this year. Over their last five games, Boston has gone 2-3, and they have lost two straight games at home.

When favored, the Bruins have gone 26-41 against the puck line this season. Overall, they have a puck line record of 39-43, including going 19-22 at home. So far, Boston has 31 wins by multiple goals and 16 wins by a single goal.

Coming into the game, the Bruins have dropped their last two games against the puck line and have gone just 1-4 against the puck line in their previous five games. In their last ten home games, the team has a puck line record of 4-6.

This season, Boston’s games have an average of 6 goals per game. The average over/under number for the season is 5.9. The Bruins come in with an over/under performance of 37-44-1.

Through their last three road contests, the Maple Leafs offense has averaged 3 goals per game while allowing an average of 4. Toronto posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.

Offensively, the Bruins come into the game at 3.2 goals per contest placing 14th in the NHL. In terms of shots on goal per game, they are in 21st position in the league. Boston’s offense comes into the game ranked 15th in power play goals. And in terms of shorthanded goals, they are 13th in the NHL.

The leading scorer for Boston’s offense is David Pastrnak. Coming into the game he has 47 goals, ranking 7th in the NHL. Pastrnak also comes into the game with 63 assists.

Boston defense takes on the Maple Leafs ranked 10th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are averaging 30.4 shots per game against Boston. They also are 11th in shutouts, with 5 shutouts.

Goalie Jeremy Swayman comes into the game having made 43 starts this season. So far, his record is 25-10 and he has a save percentage of 0.776%.