The 2024 Mexican Open, also known as the Abierto Mexicano Telcel, is one of three ATP Tour tennis events taking place this week along with the Chile Open and Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. The ATP 500 outdoor hard courts tournament began on Monday with eight of the top-15 players in the world and we’re now down to the semi-finals, beginning Friday night. Only three of the top-eight seeds remain.
Below is a recap of this week’s action in the Mexican Open along with betting predictions for the final three matches.
Past Champions and History
Alex de Minaur, the third seed in this year’s tournament and one of the four semi-finalists, is the defending champion at the Mexican Open. He beat Tommy Paul in last year’s final. Holger Rune, another one of the four semi-finalists in 2024, lost to de Minaur in the semi-finals at last year’s Mexican Open.
Rafael Nadal won the tournament in 2022, beating Cameron Norrie in the final to win for the fourth time in his career. Other past champions include Alexander Zverev (2021), Nick Kyrgios (2019), and Dominic Thiem (2016). The tournament began in 1993 as an ATP 250 event and has been an ATP 500 event since 2000.
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Recap of Early Action
Zverev, the 2021 champion, was the top seed in this year’s tournament but was beaten 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 in a first-round upset to fellow German Daniel Altmaier. Taylor Fritz, the fourth seed, also lost in a first-round upset to Matteo Arnaldi. Paul, a finalist last year, had his tournament come to an end in first-round action, losing to Jack Draper, who rode that momentum all the way to the semi-finals.
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Frances Tiafoe are the other top-eight seeds eliminated from contention. Tsitsipas reached the quarter-finals before losing to de Minaur, while Tiafoe lost in the second round to Dominik Koepfer.
De Minaur is into the semi-finals after picking up wins over taro Daniel, Sebastian Ofner, and Tsitsipas, while his opponent, Draper, has beaten Paul, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Miomir Kecmanovic. Casper Ruud, the sixth seed, reached the semis with wins over Christopher Eubanks, Dusan Lajovic, and Ben Shelton. His semi-final opponent, Rune, has wins over Michael Mmoh, Aleksander Kovacevic, and Koepfer.
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Semi-Final Matches
Alex de Minaur (-140) vs. Jack Draper (+120)
On the surface, it’s somewhat surprising that de Minaur is only a -140 favorite in this match considering he’s ranked about 40 spots higher than Draper and is the defending champion. Draper, however, has been playing lights out in Mexico. He hasn’t dropped a set and has only lost 11 games in three matches. Draper has been on court for just 3 hours and 55 minutes, while de Minaur has needed nearly five hours to win his three matches.
De Minaur is 2-0 in his career against Draper, but both matches have been close. He beat him 4-6, 7-6 (4), 7-6 (1) at the Tokyo Open last October and won in four sets at Wimbledon in 2022. Considering how well he has played this week, however, Draper is a solid betting option, especially at +120.
Holger Rune (+115) vs. Casper Ruud (-135)
This is another match where the underdog might have the advantage, despite being 1-5 in six career matches. Rune has played much better this week after reuniting with his former coach and is looking like he has a renewed confidence and sense of purpose. He’s 11-4 this year and 8-2 on outdoor hard courts and has been on court nearly an hour less than Ruud. He’ll need to take advantage of his serves, however, as Ruud hasn’t been broken yet this tournament.
Final Prediction
Nobody is playing better than Draper right now. Assuming he continues his impressive play, he should be in fine form to win his first career ATP title.
