The Mutua Madrid Open, one of nine Masters 1000 tennis events on the ATP/WTA Tours, is coming to an end this weekend after two weeks of exciting action, albeit with incredibly contrasting results. The top players in the men’s draw have lost and/or withdrawn from the tournament, leaving a final four with only player ranked inside of the top-10 world rankings. Meanwhile, the top two players in the world – Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka – meet in the women’s final.

ATP Recap

The top three seeds in the men’s draw were eliminated from the Mutua Madrid Open in the quarter-finals, all in different fashion. Top seed Jannik Sinner, winner of the 2024 Australian Open, withdrew from his match against unseeded Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, due to injury. Second seed Carlos Alcaraz suffered a rare clay court loss to seventh seed Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev, the third seed, retired after dropping the first set in his match against 30th seed Jiri Lehecka. 

WTA Recap

Meanwhile, the women’s draw has gone exactly as anticipated with the top two seeds playing in Saturday’s final. Swiatek, the top seed and world No. 1, punched her ticket to the final with a dominant 6-1, 6-3 victory over Madison Keys in the semi-final, but had a tougher time in the quarter-final, needing three sets to beat 11th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia. 

Sabalenka earned a spot in Saturday’s final with an emotional come-from-behind 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 (5) over fourth seed Elena Rybakina in the semi-final. She beat Mirra Andreeva in straight sets in the quarter-final.

ATP Semi-Finals Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime (+115) vs. Jiri Lehecka (-135)

Auger-Aliassime was once one of the best up-and-coming players in the game, but the 23-year-old Canadian has struggled over the last two years. Lehecka, meanwhile, is having a breakthrough campaign and is more battle tested, having beaten Medvedev and Rafael Nadal. Auger-Aliassime, who is 0-1 in his career against Lehecka, beat Casper Ruud in the Round of 16, but didn’t have to play a quarter-final match.

Taylor Fritz (+135) vs. Andrey Rublev (-155)

This will be the ninth head-to-head meeting between Fritz and Rublev, with the American leading the overall series 5-3. Rublev, however, won their lone match played on clay at the Monte-Carlo Masters in 2023 and is the better clay court player. He has a career record of 118-67 on the surface, whereas Fritz is 60-42. Were this on any other surface, Fritz might be favored, but the best bet here is Rublev.

WTA Final Prediction

Aryna Sabalenka (+260) vs. Iga Swiatek (-310)

Swiatek is by far the most accomplished clay court player in the women’s game and should beat Sabalenka in Saturday’s final. She’s a massive betting favorite and holds a 6-3 career record over Sabalenka, including 3-1 on clay. Swiatek, a two-time French Open winner, is 31-4 this season, including 7-1 on clay. She’s looing to – and should – win her fourth event this season on the WTA Tour.