The Philadelphia Phillies visit LoanDepot Park on Friday night to open a three-game series against the Miami Marlins, so we’re taking a closer look at this NL East showdown to get you the best Phillies vs. Marlins betting pick and odds.
The Phillies continue their playoff battle as -144 favorites to beat the Marlins in the opener. The hosts are +133 moneyline underdogs with a total of 8.0 runs on Bookmaker Sportsbook, and Miami is 6-7 in 13 games against Philadelphia in 2021.
The Phillies are riding a six-game win streak
The Philadelphia Phillies overcame a six-run deficit on Thursday to beat the Washington Nationals 7-6 and sweep a three-game set at Nationals Park. It was their sixth win on the spin, as the Phillies improved to 69-64 on the season, trailing just a game and a half behind the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves.
In that six-game stretch, the Phillies have scored 47 runs, smacking nine home runs and 19 extra-base hits. On the pitching side of things, they’ve registered a 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a .228 batting average.
Kyle Gibson will take the hill Friday in Miami, and the 33-year-old righty has never met the Marlins before. He’s 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in five starts and one relief appearance since joining the Phillies from Texas at the trade deadline.
Last Saturday, Gibson fired six scoreless frames in a 7-0 home win to Arizona, scattering three hits and punching out three. He’s 10-5 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 116/53 K/BB ratio in 150 frames of work this season.
The Marlins have won a few games lately
The Miami Marlins’ season is already ruined, and they’ve lost ten of the last 14 games overall (Thursday’s road game at the Mets has been excluded). Still, the Marlins went 4-2 last week, winning a couple of three-game sets against Cincinnati and Washington.
Miami continues to struggle at the plate, and in the last couple of weeks, the Marlins have posted an awful .222/.295/.331 batting line. Their pitching staff’s had some ups and downs, and the Marlins have registered a 4.06 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in that span.
Jesus Luzardo dominated the Reds last Saturday, allowing just one hit and one free pass across six scoreless innings. Just like his rival on the mound this Friday, Luzardo was traded in July after three years with the Oakland Athletics, and the 23-year-old lefty is 3-3 with a disappointing 7.62 ERA in six starts with the Marlins.
Luzardo has never met the Phillies before. He’s 3-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in five outings (23.2 innings) at LoanDepot Park.
- 6-0 in the last six games overall
- 5-1 in the last six road contests
- 4-10 in the last 14 games overall
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Pick
The Phillies are swinging a hot bat at the moment. They’ve scored exactly seven runs in six of their last seven outings while dropping 12 on the Nationals in the other one. The Phillies are hitting the lefties well (.756 OPS on the season), so I’m backing them to continue a hot streak against Jesus Luzardo, who’s yielded three or more runs in six of his last seven outings.
On the other side, Kyle Gibson should be fine against the Marlins offense that owns a .677 OPS against the right-handed starting pitchers in 2021. The Phillies bullpen is always a problem, but the visitors should have enough firepower, especially at the plate, to come out on top.
Pick: Take Philadelphia Phillies at -144
LoanDepot Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and ranks first in the MLB this season, so backing the under should be the right move. However, I don’t trust Jesus Luzardo, who’s yielded five home runs in five home starts for Miami.
The Phillies have gone bonkers over their last seven games and could easily destroy the talented lefty. Both bullpens are pretty much a hit-or-miss, so I would stick with the side bet. The under is 7-4-1 in the last 12 encounters between the Phillies and Marlins, and their last three meetings in Miami produced fewer than seven runs in total each.
Pick: Go under 8.0 runs at -130