On Saturday, December 16th at 5:45 ET, the Fresno State Bulldogs will host the New Mexico State Aggies. Television coverage for this week 1 CFB matchup at University Stadium will be on ESPN. New Mexico State enters this non-conference game against the Bulldogs as 2.5 point road favorites. Keep reading to discover my insights and betting recommendations.

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES VS FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +2.5

This game will be played at University Stadium at 5:45 ET on Saturday, December 16th.

WHY BET THE FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 27-25 in favor of New Mexico State.
  • Even though we have New Mexico State winning straight-up, we like Fresno State at +2.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 51 points, and we like the over with a projected 52 points.

Will the Aggies Come Through as Road Favorites?

So far, the New Mexico State Aggies are 10-4, including going 5-3 on the road and 2-1 at home.

So far, New Mexico State has been favored four times and the underdog in seven games. This has led to an ATS record of 8-3 and an average scoring differential of +6.9.

This season, New Mexico State has posted an over/under record of 4-7 through 14 games. On average their games have combined for 50.5 points.

As they prepare to face the Fresno State, the Aggies’ offense is averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per attempt. Nationally, they are 3rd in rushing yards and 43rd in passing yards, on an average of 224.9 yards per matchup. New Mexico State has averaged 28.7 points per game so far. This figure places them 31st in the nation.

The Aggies’ defense has allowed 145.9 rushing yards per game this season, ranking 145th. Opponents are averaging 241.8 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of 95.5 against New Mexico State. They currently rank 60th in points allowed in the NCAA.

Is an Upset Waiting to Happen at Home?

With a 8-4 record, the Fresno State Bulldogs take on New Mexico State. Their road record so far is (3-3) and at home (4-1).

So far, Fresno State has been favored nine times and the underdog in two games. This has led to an ATS record of 4-7 and an average scoring differential of +5.3.

Across 12 games, the average over/under line in Fresno State’s matchups is 50.8 points. These games have seen an average combined score of 54.5 points, resulting in an OU record of 7-4.

In the rushing game, the Bulldogs are currently 96th in college football with 336 attempts per game. This has resulted in an average of 106 rushing yards per game, putting them 117th nationally. Their passing game has averaged 39.5 passes and 273.1 yards per game. When it comes to scoring, they are 46th, averaging 29.9 points per game.

The Bulldogs defense faces off against New Mexico State with 26 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re giving up 24.6 points per game which is 91st in the nation. Against the pass, they’re 79th in the NCAA, allowing 216.9 passing yards per game. Fresno State’s run defense is yielding 169.2 rushing yards per contest.