Last Updated: 2019-04-07
After a successful debut with NFL Prop Bets, I’m back for the MLB season taking a slightly different approach to betting these games. You can find one of the most thorough daily MLB write ups here on this site from Adam Burke so I’ll be doing something a bit different.
Every weekend, I’ll be posting a play from Sunday Night Baseball looking along the edges for opportunities in the prop betting market. Some good bets can be found looking at 1st inning scoring, 1st five innings sides or totals and looking at individual player props. Let’s get creative and have some fun!
We struggled a bit in one week but that’s the start of baseball season for ya and we’ll bounce back. It wasn’t a bullpen blow up that cost us, but more so a case of men left on base. I figured the pitchers would struggle and we’ll see some runs, but that only partly came to fruition. My ‘1st inning run’ bet was a loser even though there were 5 walks allowed alone in the 1st inning. That’s close to impossible to happen again. In total, there were 15 walks in the game and 32 men left on base while both teams combined for 1/14 with runners in scoring position. It’s frustrating but it happens and that’s why it’s wise to start off the year with conservative bets.
Tonight, I’ll be siding with the chalk as the red hot Dodgers play in Colorado on National television. Perhaps playing a night game in a haze of weed smoke at Coors Field may help Corey Seager hit the ball as he’s the only big name Dodger starter that’s struggled this year. The rest of team has mashed as they lead the MLB in most hitting categories. This line opened at -140 and has been steamed up to -155 and should close higher than that come game time. It’s hard to sweep a team but I’m not ready yet to jump on the Rockies even with the possibility of getting some value tonight. Their big bats of Arenado, Story and Blackmon have struggled so far but if they lose again tonight then I may look for them to get back on track in their upcoming series vs Atlanta’s bullpen and SF’s starters.
Julio Urias makes his second start of the year after an impressive debut (5IP/0ER/3H/7K). Albeit, it was against possibly the worst line up in the league in the Giants but it’s a good sign. He’s back after missing most of 2018 with an elbow injury and is throwing harder than ever. A few Rockies have seen him before and have had some success (Arenado 3/4, Blackmon 2/3, Dahl 1/2) so there’s a possibility Arenado and Blackmon may get their season on track against the young lefty.
It’s mediocre righty Chad Bettis on the mound for Colorado which you’d think is good news if you’re a big left handed Dodger bat. However, in 2018 his ERA and hits allowed were double that from right handed batters vs lefties so I like the looks of Justin Turner and AJ Pollock who are a combined 13/33 vs the Chad. After getting roughed up last week in Tampa taking the loss and giving up 7 hits, 6ER, 2BB over 5.2 IP, he’ll need to be on his game to limit this Dodger offense. Statistically, the Rockies hold a bullpen edge so far in 2019 but the Dodger bullpen is better. That said, they may throw out their Tuesday afternoon stripper squad if they have a lead so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Rockies pick up a few runs late.
Let’s make some money people!
Dodgers over 3.5 runs in the 1st 5 Innings (+115) 1 unit
Colorado to score last (-115) 1.15 units
Dodgers to lead after 3 innings (+100) 1 unit
Highest Scoring Period are Innings 6-9 vs 1-5 (+200) .5 unit
AJ Pollock over 1.5 total bases (-115) 1.15 units
Justin Turner over 1.5 total bases (-115) 1.15 units
Justin Turner home run (+480) .25 unit
Nolan Arenado over 1.5 total bases (-120) 1.2 units
David Dahl over 1.5 total bases (+105) 1 unit
For record keeping, I’ll be using a 1 to 3 unit bet stake where 1 unit will equal $100 and I’ll try to stick to commonly found bets/lines from one of six offshore books. I’ll take the vig into account during my tracking so on a -110 line, I’ll be betting $110 to win $100.
2019 MLB Record = 2W-5L / – $380
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