We’ve touched upon the concept of baseball teams having ups and downs over the course of the season several times. Things will go one for a team for a short period of time before finding their way back to a point or normalcy. You can say that a team is “due” for a good game or a poor game and there would be some degree of truth to that.
When a team losses a couple of close games back-to-back they are probably due for a break, which is simply another way of saying that probability indicates they will probably pick up a victory shortly and that’s the basis of this article.
What we’re looking for are favorites who lost their last two games by one run. These teams have posted a 369-249 record at an average lay price of -144 dating back to 2004. The profit has been $2,018 and the ROI is 2.3%, which isn’t bad, especially considering low little effort was needed to find plays. These teams have done slightly better on the run line, where they have posted a 208-268 record but at an average price of +139, which has shown a profit of $1,711, but a higher ROI of 3.5%. The higher ROI is simply due to the fact that you’re risking $100 on the majority of the games instead of $144.
These teams have better as an away favorite in money line bets, where they show a 2.9% ROI and better at home in run line bets, where the ROI jumps up to 4.8%. This is due to home teams receiving better odds because of the possibility they may not bat in the bottom of the ninth or the game being called if they take the lead in extra innings.
While it doesn’t happen nearly as often, a better bet has been to find favorites who have lost three straight one-run games. These teams have posted a 51-27 record, which has been good for a profit of $1,352 and an impressive ROI of 12.3%. Again, these teams have fared better on the run line, showing a profit of $2,110 and a hefty ROI of 32%.
These teams have fared better at home in both moneyline betting and on the run line. For straight bets, the home favorites are 30-13 for a profit of $1,080 and an ROI of 17%. Run line bets have yielded a profit of $1,582 and an ROI in excess of 40%.
Away favorites have gone 21-14 and shown an ROI of 5.8% and an ROI on run line wagers of 17.3%.
