Missouri vs. Arkansas College Football Betting Pick 11/29/19

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The Missouri Tigers (-11) are heading neutral to face their SEC nemesis Arkansas Razorbacks at War Memorial Stadium. This Friday SEC game is scheduled to be nationally-televised on CBS and the opening kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. ET.

Missouri vs. Arkansas Betting Odds 11/29/2019

The spread for this SEC game is placed at 11 points in favor of Missouri. The Tigers are currently getting -450 moneyline odds while the Razorbacks are +325. The over/under has been set at 55 points, and if one side catches a lucky break early, it’ll probably result in a solid live betting opportunity.

The game’s total has been driven higher after originally being set at 53.5. The opening spread (11) has remained firm.

The Tigers are 5-6 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against conference opponents. The Razorbacks are 2-9 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play. The disappointing Tigers are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 13.6 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-9.

The Razorbacks have lost 4.2 units this season. They’re 3-8 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-6.

The Tigers fell to Tennessee 24-20 in a contest where the defense allowed the Volunteers to pass for 415 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 111 yards. Josh Palmer had a productive day for the Volunteers in that one with 124 yards on six catches. Offensively, Kelly Bryant completed 16 passes for just 166 yards and one touchdown. Larry Rountree III (43 yards on 16 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Bryant (18 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack. Barrett Banister (five receptions, 46 yards) and Daniel Parker Jr. (four catches, 25 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Arkansas just fell 56-20 to LSU. The team’s defense allowed the Tigers to pass for 352 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 260 yards and five scores. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was outstanding, putting up 188 rushing yards and three touchdowns on six attempts, along with 65 yards on seven catches for the Tigers. As a group, the Razorbacks collectively completed 13-of-28 passes for 190 yards and one touchdown. K.J. Jefferson went seven-for-14 for 105 yards while Nick Starkel was three-of-10 for 34 yards. Rakeem Boyd (33 yards on 13 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Jefferson (zero yards on 12 carries) mounted the running attack as Treylon Burks (three receptions, 80 yards) and Mike Woods (three catches, 47 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Missouri has run the ball on 54.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Arkansas has a rush percentage of 47.9 percent. The Tigers have rushed for 152 yards per game (including 129 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Razorbacks are putting up 146 rush yards per contest (114 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.

The Tigers have tallied 226 yards/contest in the air overall (199 per game versus conference opposition) and have 16 passing scores so far. The Razorbacks have recorded 203 pass yards per outing (185.6 in the SEC) and have 12 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Missouri should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 130 yards and pass for 189 yards per game. Arkansas has allowed 228.5 yards per game on the ground and 233.2 to opposing teams in the air. The Tigers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.49 to opposing QBs, while the Razorbacks have allowed an 8.06 ANY/A.

Bryant is up to 2,011 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 156-of-253 attempts with 15 passing touchdowns and five interceptions. Bryant’s got a 7.26 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.19 over the last two games.

We’re looking for Tigers to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to receiver Jalen Knox (254 receiving yards and one touchdown), Tyler Badie (396 rush yards, two rush TDs, 336 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Larry Rountree III (711 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have delivered in the offense for Missouri.

For the home team, K.J. Jefferson has produced 137 yards, zero TDs and zero INTs. Jefferson’s ANY/A stands at 5.84 for the year and 2.21 over his past two games.

The Razorbacks also like to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Rakeem Boyd (158 receiving yards), Treylon Burks (35 rush yards, 410 receiving yards) and Mike Woods (381 receiving yards and four TDs) have seen a multitude of touches recently.

These two teams faced off a year ago with the final result being a 38-0 win for Missouri.

Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Pick

SU Winner – Missouri, ATS Winner – Missouri, O/U – Under

Notes

Team Betting Trends

Both teams have lost six fumbles this year.

The Missouri defense has sacked opposing QBs 19 times this year. Arkansas has produced 18 sacks.

As a team, Missouri has averaged 2.2 yards per carry over its past three contests and 2.3 over its last two.

Arkansas has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.2 over its last two.

Over its last three contests, Arkansas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Missouri’s last game going into it was 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-20 loss to Tennessee.

Over its last three games, Missouri is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Arkansas’ previous matchup going into it was 70. The over cashed in that 56-20 defeat to LSU.

Arkansas has dropped 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a 21-point win over Colorado State on September 14th accounting for its lone victory over that stretch.

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