The Golden Gophers and Spartans are set to face off at 12:00 ET on BTN. The Spartans will host the game at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 135.5 points, and Michigan State is favored by -6.5 to win at home against Minnesota.


The Pick: Michigan State Spartans -6.5

This game will be played at Target Center at 12:00 ET on Thursday, March 14th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Spartans.
  • Not only will Michigan State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -6.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 135.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Can the Golden Gophers Pull Off a Road Win?

Minnesota heads into this game as a 6.5-point underdog, which is not surprising given their road record of 2-9 this season. They have lost five straight games away from home, and they are coming off a 90-66 loss to Northwestern.

On the season, the Golden Gophers are 18-13, including a 9-11 record in Big Ten play. They have been much better at home, going 16-4 compared to 2-9 on the road. Minnesota has been the underdog in 16 of their games, going 5-11 in those contests.

Minnesota has an overall ATS record of 22-8-1 this season and they are 7-4 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Golden Gophers have an impressive ATS mark of 8-2. However, their ATS record vs. the spread when favored this year is only 11-3-1.

Minnesota’s over/under record this season is 17-14 and today’s line of 135.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (144.1). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 142 points compared to their season average of 147.3 points per game. In their last three contests, their over/under record is 1-2 and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 6-4.

The Minnesota offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 66 points versus Northwestern. During the game, they attempted 16 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 49.1%. The team’s scoring leader is Dawson Garcia, who holds an average of 17.7 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Cam Christie is averaging 11.3 points per game this season.

So far, the Golden Gophers’ defense is ranked 157th in the country at 71.6 points per contest. Minnesota’s three-point defense is currently 79th in the country at 6.4 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 44.4% of their shots vs. Minnesota.

Pressure Builds for Michigan State as Home Favorites

Michigan State will be looking to get back on track after a tough 65-64 loss to Indiana. The Spartans have been solid at home this season, going 15-6 compared to 3-7 on the road. Over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 8-2.

On the year, Michigan State is 18-13 overall and 10-10 in Big Ten play. They have been the favorite in 24 of their 31 games, going 16-8 in those contests. For the season, they have an average scoring margin of +12.4 points per game at home.

As the favorite this season, Michigan State has gone 13-11 vs. the spread. At home, the Spartans are 12-9 ATS this year, but they have not fared well in their last three home games (0-3 ATS) or as the favorite (0-3 ATS) in their last three games.

Today’s over/under line of 135.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Michigan State games this season (141.8). This year, 20 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 127 points and their OU record in their last 10 games is 3-7.

In their latest game, Michigan State offense put up 64 points against Indiana. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 38.5% and made 8 threes. Tyson Walker led the team in scoring, putting up 30 points. Additionally, A.J Hoggard contributed 10 points for the Spartans.

In the current season, the Michigan State defense has excelled, sitting 30th in the nation by allowing 65.9 points per game. So far, the Michigan State defense is giving up an average of 8.5 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 9.2 times per game (371st).