The Marlins (59-56, 25-32 away) and Reds (60-56, 29-30 home) head into game three of this National League matchup all tied at 1-1. Johnny Cueto is scheduled to get the start for the Marlins against Graham Ashcraft for the Reds. Check out my best bet for today’s Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds showdown.
MIAMI MARLINS VS CINCINNATI REDS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds -128
This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 12:35 ET on Wednesday, August 9th.
WHY BET THE CINCINNATI REDS:
- The Marlins have gone just 3-7 in their last ten games.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Marlins are just 2-8 straight-up.
- Over his last four starts, Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of just 2.44.
MIAMI MARLINS STRUGGLING VS RUNLINE OF LATE
For the season, the Marlins are 59-56 overall, including going 25-32 on the road and 34-24 at home. When looking at their overall series record, Miami is above .500 at 18-17-1. In the NL East, the Marlins are currently 3rd.
The Marlins will turn to starter Johnny Cueto, who has an 0-3 record this season. Across five appearances, his ERA stands at 5.32, with a K/9 of 7.36 and a FIP of 5.54. Additionally, he has an OBP of .259.
The Marlins were unable to come out on top in their matchup against the Phillies when Johnny Cueto took the mound. The veteran pitcher went six innings, giving up four earned runs on five hits, resulting in a 4-2 loss for Miami.
During their last ten games, Miami is the 13th ranked offense in terms of batting average. In these games, they have hit a combined .245 and are averaging 3.7 runs per game. Across the entire season, the Marlins are hitting .262 with an OBP of .319 while averaging 4 runs per contest. This figure puts them 24th in the league.
Over the Marlins’ past five contests, Jorge Soler has topped the club in hits, boasting a .367 batting average. This season, Soler is hitting at a .246 clip and has knocked in 62 runs.
WILL THE CINCINNATI REDS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?
Through 116 games, the Reds are in 2nd place in the NL Central on an overall record of 60-56. So far, they have a below .500 record at home, going just 29-30. For the season, Cincinnati has played in 36 series and gone 17-15-4.
Graham Ashcraft is making his 22nd appearance of the 2023 season with a record of 6-7. His ERA stands at 5.18, while teams have a .267 batting average against him. On the road, he has been successful with a 3-1 record and 3.97 ERA, but has struggled at home with an ERA of 9.62 and a 3-6 record. Opponents have managed to slug .437 against him this season.
Graham Ashcraft earned a quality start in his most recent outing, hurling eight innings and allowing three runs. Despite his impressive showing, the Reds were unable to overcome the Nationals, falling 6-3.
The Reds have been one of the top power lineups in the league of late, having hit 8 home runs over their last five games. Compared to other clubs, this is 5th best in that span. For the season, they are ranked 12th in home runs and 12th in slugging percentage. Overall, Cincinnati is averaging 4.8 runs per game (7th).
TJ Friedl has been a major contributor to the Reds’ offensive success this season, leading the team in home runs over their last five games with two. His overall total of 10 homers is complemented by a .285 batting average, making him an integral part of Cincinnati’s lineup.