Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick 09/29/19

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The Miami Marlins are set to take on their divisional rival Philadelphia Phillies. NBC Sports Philadelphia is in line to showcase the matchup and the game is scheduled to get going at 3:05 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

The Marlins are 56-105 SU and are 83-77 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 15.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.8 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 81-80 SU and 75-85 ATS. They’ve lost 8.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 13.3 units ATS.

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Philadelphia games have a 74-79-7 over/under record in 2019. The Marlins have an over/under record of 76-71-13.

Right-hander Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the visiting Marlins. Alcantara is 5-14 with a 3.95 ERA and 146 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with 12 strikeouts and a 4.97 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).

The Phillies are going with righty Blake Parker (3-2, 4.18 ERA), who has 63 punchouts and 22 walks to his credit, along with a 1.19 WHIP. Parker is 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Miami this year.

Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.19 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.96, along with a K/9 of 9.19.

The Marlins offense has slashed .241/.300/.374 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game this season, including 3.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Miami’s offensive production has been powered by second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas. Castro is slashing .270/.300/.431 with 21 home runs, 85 RBIs and 67 runs scored, while Rojas (.284/.331/.379) has produced five homers, 46 RBIs and 52 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.61, a WHIP of 1.36 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.4. The bullpen has a 4.42 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 75 games against NL East foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.83 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.10.

The Philadelphia hitters have put up 4.8 runs per outing, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .232/.298/.442 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led the Phillies’ hitters this year. Hernandez is hitting .280/.334/.410 with 14 home runs, 71 RBIs and 76 runs scored, while Segura’s line is .280/.323/.420 with 12 homers, 60 RBIs and 79 runs scored.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER

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Miami has tallied 17 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Philadelphia has 19 XBH over its last five.

The Marlins have lost four of their last five games SU.

Miami has recorded 22.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.6 over its last five.

Each team has hit 13 home runs over its last 10 games.

The Marlins have an OPS of .674 this season and an OPS of .665 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .747 overall and .732 against righties.

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