Another hard-to-handicap golf event is on our hands this week with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Last week’s unique atmosphere created a lot of different considerations with the rowdy crowd at TPC Scottsdale. This week, the players will play on three different courses over the first three days and then Pebble Beach Golf Links on Sunday if they are lucky enough to get there.
Amateurs will also be hacking around the course with their playing partners, which is a dynamic that some players like and some players most certainly don’t. That means that we really have to choose wisely this week.
Per usual, we’ll be looking for bargain bin DFS options that are off the beaten path a little bit or are mispriced despite good course form or a skill set that matches up well.
Brandt Snedeker ($8,200) – Maybe we were premature in looking to back Brandt Snedeker. The Farmers Insurance Open and the Waste Management Phoenix Open both reward length. Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula, and Spyglass Hill don’t reward length as much. Like most events in California, Brandt Snedeker has a win here. He’s played well in terms of hitting greens and has been a decent scrambler, but he hasn’t made enough putts to post good numbers over the last two events. That’s mostly because it’s tougher for him to get to the green with eagle putts. Birdies are good scores this week and Sneds should have a good chance at some of those. He won here in 2013 and 2015 and was fourth two years ago. Something about odd-numbered years.
Ted Potter ($7,400) – Ted Potter probably won’t have a repeat performance of last year’s win, but this is a criminally low price for the reigning champ. Potter did not play well last week in Phoenix, but did score a top-15 at the Sony Open earlier this month. He’s not a big hitter at all, but that’s why his skill set plays up at Pebble Beach and its sister courses. Maybe it was just a one-off performance, but Potter is top-20 in driving accuracy this year and that’s a good start at Pebble.
Brice Garnett ($7,000) – My personal favorite play this week is Brice Garnett. Potter won last year as a 300/1 shot and Vaughn Taylor wasn’t that far off from that price in 2016. Long shots can come in here at Pebble. Garnett’s lone win came in last year’s alternate event in Punta Cana and he annually plays well at Mayakoba, so he’s a decent wind player and likes the coastal courses. Garnett also heads into this week eighth in driving accuracy, so he can play from the short grass here and that’s a big part of the battle at Pebble Beach. Garnett hasn’t shown well the last two events at TPC Scottsdale and Torrey Pines, but those don’t fit his skill set as well as these courses.
Graeme McDowell ($6,800) – Let’s see if Graeme McDowell can turn back the clock quite a ways and put together a strong showing for us at Pebble Beach. McDowell finished seventh here back in 2014 and this is also the site of his US Open win way back in 2010. He hasn’t been seen since November on the PGA Tour side of things, but he did finish 11th in the RSM Classic that weekend. McDowell does have a limited number of rounds, but he ranks 10th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour this season. That’s good enough for me to take him as a long shot that slots in nicely with pricier players.
Brandon Harkins ($7,000) – Brandon Harkins is something of a gut feeling play. Harkins was really good on the greens last week in Phoenix, but had a hard time on the approach. Harkins did play really well here last year and tied for 15th. Last week’s 7-under was quite a show, as he had 21 birdies, but eight bogeys and three doubles. But, he shot a 66 and a 69 and this is a much smaller and shorter course for him to where being able to hit greens in regulation is just a little bit easier. There are worse gambles in this price range and Harkins probably won’t be owned by too many GPP participants.