Last Updated: 2018-02-05
That dreaded period between the Super Bowl and March Madness is here. Fortunately, we’ve got a lot of daily action going on across the winter sports to keep us entertained and a really solid field for this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This top-heavy field with Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth promises to be a whole lot of fun and the star power in this event means that we have some good value picks down the board for those playing golf DFS.
We’ll try to help you with your daily fantasy golf choices by looking for the top values. Everybody can take the top guys and hope for the best, but it’s often that low-cost missing piece that makes all the difference in your GPPs, 50/50s, or H2H matchups. Keep that in mind as you read through these plays. We’re looking for cheap players with upside.
New to daily fantasy sports? Need to reload? DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from BangTheBook Radio on Wednesdays with our resident golf betting expert Wes Reynolds, who outlines players to take a chance on for this weekend’s event. Also, we have golf previews for the PGA event each week.
Pat Perez ($8,600) – We’re paying a bit of a stiff price on Pat Perez here, but he’s played quite well this season and has fared pretty well in these Western US events. Perez narrowly finished top 30 at the Omega Desert Dubai Classic, the only event he has played in the last month. He opened his year with a win at the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur. Perez has played very well at Pebble Beach in the past. He has two top-10 finishes and a top-15 finish over the last four years. He’s right around the average salary, so he’ll be a decent addition alongside a couple of the top guys and a couple of our lower-cost value picks.
Brandt Snedeker ($8,100) – If Brandt Snedeker can get the flatstick going this week, look out. Sneds has not been able to putt particularly well this season, but he’s just trying to get the right feel after missing a good chunk of last season due to injury. Snedeker is a two-time winner at Pebble Beach, which is a good start. We’re paying a bit of a premium for that course form with this price, but sometimes a struggling golfer just needs to take some swings at a comfortable event. Snedeker actually played really well at the Phoenix Open and shot a solid 68 on Sunday with five birdies and just two bogies. With 11 rounds over the last three weeks, he should be getting back into decent form at just the right time.
Vaughn Taylor ($6,900) – This is the type of course where Vaughn Taylor can be kind of dangerous. All three courses in question this week measure less than 7,000 yards. Taylor is not a big hitter by any means, but he is pretty accurate off of the tee. That accuracy from the box allowed him to win this event two years ago. Taylor finished 11th last week at TPC Scottsdale and really got it going with the putter and the wedges around the green. Those are very important skills at Pebble Beach and he is a fine addition to your lineup at a low price.
Luke Donald ($6,800) – If DraftKings was a thing back in 2002… Anyway, Luke Donald also gets a course more to his liking this week. He’s not a big hitter. He only has one top-25 in his last 14 tournaments. Yada yada. Donald has moderate upside at this price point. Last year he finished T-23 at Pebble Beach, despite an opening-round 75. He shot 69-65 in the middle and then finished with a 72 on Sunday. Donald is a guy that has fallen by the wayside because it is hard for him to compete on the long courses that the top players can really shorten. This is a shorter course, so I’d expect Donald to perform a bit better. At this price point, it’s not like you’re asking for miracles.
Russell Knox ($6,700) – Look, Russell Knox probably doesn’t have much of a chance to win this thing, but for a guy with 114 birdies in seven events this season, this price point is laughably low. Knox has made all seven cuts and has four top-30 finishes in that span. He hasn’t made a whole lot of putts, which is a problem going into Pebble Beach, but his game around the dance floor has been pretty good. With that in mind, taking a stab on Knox at $6,700 certainly seems more than reasonable for this week’s Pro-Am.
-END OF 2018 PICKS-
It’s too bad we can’t pick the amateurs in daily fantasy for this weekend’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am event. That would be a lot of fun. Some of the current and former athletes and entertainers in attendance are pretty good golfers, but it would be hard to handicap a lot of those guys. It would just be a bunch of guesswork and variance. Instead, we get to focus on the pros this week. This is a very large field of 156 players and a tournament played on three different courses, where weather and coastal winds can wreak havoc. Be smart and responsible this week with a lot of options.
Our quest in these golf daily fantasy articles is to look for the top value picks on the board. Everybody can take the top guys and hope for the best, but it’s often that low-cost missing piece that makes all the difference in your GPPs, 50/50s, or H2H matchups.
New to daily fantasy sports? Need to reload? DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from BangTheBook Radio on Wednesdays with our resident golf betting expert Wes Reynolds, who outlines players to take a chance on for this weekend’s event. Also, we have golf previews for the PGA and the European Tour events each week.
JJ Spaun ($7,900) – It’s time to pay attention to JJ Spaun. Spaun now has back-to-back top-10 finishes. He was ninth at the Farmers Insurance Open and fourth at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. It’s not a coincidence that Spaun’s first round has been his worst round in each of the last two tournaments because he’s getting a feel for some of these courses, but he’s really playing well. The 26-year-old won the News Sentinel Open to get his PGA Tour card for this season and he played very well on the PGA Tour Canada. The San Diego State University product should feel right at home in California for this week’s tournament.
Martin Laird ($7,100) – Martin Laird has two top-10 finishes in his last three starts and appears to be hitting a nice groove. He went 67-66-65-73 while spending most of the week scrambling, so there’s something to be said about his ability to battle. The courses this weekend don’t feature a lot of length, so accuracy on the approach is critical, but Laird had 19 birdies against four bogies and a double last week and already has six rounds under 70 in three events this season. At a price point like this, you’re not asking for the moon, but another top-15 is a great ROI.
Vaughn Taylor ($6,900) – The reigning champion is well down the board this weekend. It’s understandable because Vaughn Taylor isn’t exactly a household name, but he also tied for 10th in 2015 and played okay when he missed the cut back in 2013. The 40-year-old isn’t in very good form right now with just one top-25 finish in his last five events, but this is a course that he feels comfortable at and sometimes that’s half the battle. He has made seven cuts in a row, so that’s a plus at a price point like this. Keep in mind, these are guys that allow you to fill in some of the big names.
Hunter Mahan ($6,700) – We’re really digging deep this week, aren’t we? Hunter Mahan doesn’t have a whole lot of recent form, but he’s been quite good at Pebble Beach in his career. Mahan’s last two starts have been MCs at Pebble Beach, but, prior to that, he has a sixth, 16th, 15th, and second in this tournament. Confidence is important, especially for a player that has finished outside the top 60 in back-to-back events. Mahan is a California native, so it makes sense that he plays well in this event and has played fairly well in the events out on the West Coast in his career.
Jimmy Walker ($8,800) – We’ll step up and grab one the more expensive players in Jimmy Walker. We’re getting some value on Walker because he’s missed two straight cuts. He was 11th here last year, 21st in 2015, won in 2014, despite an awful final round, finished third in 2013, and ninth in 2014. Those are some really strong finishes and he’s been pretty consistent overall. He’s struggled here the last two weeks, but he’s back at a course that suits some of his strengths and there’s some value in that price point.
Players to Avoid:
Jason Day ($11,600) – Until we see some more consistency from Jason Day, it’s hard to roster him at a five-figure price point. Day is working on some swing changes designed to help with his back pain and he missed the cut last week at the Farmers. Day only hit 54 percent of the fairways with his more compact swing and sacrificed a little bit of distance. The courses at Pebble Beach are shorter than most courses, so maybe Day can have success, but tying up this kind of money in trying to find out seems tough to do. Day has some very good finishes here, so it’s understandable why he’d be priced like this, but a wait-and-see approach is best.
Webb Simpson ($8,200) – Webb Simpson seemingly came out of nowhere to battle Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff for the title last weekend at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Simpson was going for his first win since 2013 and that was his first playoff since 2013. He hasn’t played this event since 2013, so we don’t have a whole lot of course form, but it also means that he doesn’t have a lot of recent experience with the fanfare and the hoopla with all these celebs in attendance. Last year, Simpson didn’t play another event until March after the Phoenix Open. This deviation in schedule could be a problem.
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