The Blue Jays (81-67, 39-34 home) will host the Red Sox (74-74, 36-36 away) in game two of this AL East series. Starting for the Blue Jays is Chris Bassitt, while the Red Sox are giving the ball to Chris Sale. Read on to see my pick for this showdown between Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.
BOSTON RED SOX VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Boston Red Sox +1.5 Runs
This game will be played at Rogers Centre at 3:07 ET on Saturday, September 16th.
WHY BET THE BOSTON RED SOX:
- Against the runline, the Blue Jays have gone just 1-2 in their last three home games.
- Over their last five games as the favorite, the Blue Jays are just 2-3 against the runline.
- Opponents are hitting a healthy .300 against Chris Bassitt in his last two starts.
BOSTON RED SOX STRUGGLING VS RUNLINE OF LATE
148 games into their season, the Red Sox are 5th in the AL East on an overall record of 74-74. Against other teams in the AL East, Boston is 22-22 while their overall series win percent sits at 51%. At home, the Red Sox are 38-38 and 36-36 on the road.
The Red Sox will turn to starter Chris Sale, who has an overall record of 6-4. Through 17 appearances, his ERA is 4.88 and his K/9 is 11.01. His FIP stands at 3.90 and his OBP is .295 thus far in the 2023 season.
Chris Sale was recently on the mound for the Red Sox, but his performance was not up to par. He allowed six earned runs and six hits over four innings of work, resulting in a 13-12 loss to Baltimore.
This season, the Red Sox are 8th in the league at 4.9 runs per game. Over their last ten games, they have a combined batting average of .236 (18th) leading to 4.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are generating 3.0 walks per game compared to 8 strikeouts. Boston’s on-base percentage of .328 has them 7th in the MLB.
Wilyer Abreu has been a consistent force in the Boston lineup this season, boasting a .365 batting average and .519 slugging percentage. In the team’s last ten games, Abreu has been particularly impressive, leading the Red Sox in hits with a .352 average.
WILL THE TORONTO BLUE JAYS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?
For the season, the Blue Jays have put together a record of 81-67 and are 3rd in the AL East, putting them 10.5 games out of first place. Toronto’s overall series record sits at 27-17-2. On the road, they have gone 42-33 and 39-34 at home.
The Blue Jays will turn to starter Chris Bassitt, who has posted a 14-8 record over 30 appearances this season. His ERA stands at 3.83, with an impressive 8.11 K/9 figure and 4.47 FIP. Opposing batters have managed just a .298 OBP against him.
Chris Bassitt’s last start ended in a 10-4 loss to the Texas Rangers. The right-hander gave up five runs on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings.
The Blue Jays have been one of the top power lineups in the league of late, having hit 4 home runs over their last five games. Compared to other clubs, this is 8th best in that span. For the season, they are ranked 16th in home runs and 13th in slugging percentage. Overall, Toronto is averaging 4.5 runs per game (16th).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the Blue Jays’ most productive hitters in 2023, boasting a .265 batting average and driving in 89 runs. The slugger has also hit 23 home runs this season.