Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick 09/29/19

Jonathan Villar and the Baltimore Orioles are ready to do battle against their divisional rival Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will broadcast the matchup and the first pitch is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Odds

The Orioles are 54-107 SU and have gone 69-91 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 20.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 28.6 units ATS. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 83-78 SU and 67-93 ATS. The team’s lost 27.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 35.6 units ATS.

Red Sox games have a 91-66-3 over/under record in 2019. The Orioles have also been a good over bet with a total record of 81-67-12.

The right-handed Chandler Shepherd is the probable starter for the visiting Orioles. Shepherd is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA and 11 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Red Sox this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Red Sox are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (19-6, 3.80 ERA), who has 205 strikeouts and 73 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.34. Rodriguez is 3-0 with 16 strikeouts and a 1.29 ERA across three starts against Baltimore this year.

As a unit, Boston’s pitching staff has given up 5.1 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 4.97, a WHIP of 1.38 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.6. The bullpen has a 4.41 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. In 75 divisional games, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 5.22 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.17.

The Boston offense is putting up 5.6 runs per outing, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .288/.351/.469 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Red Sox offense has been led by third baseman Rafael Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Devers is slashing .308/.359/.553 with 32 home runs, 115 RBIs and 128 runs scored, while the line for Bogaerts stands at .309/.383/.556 with 33 homers, 116 RBIs and 109 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 6.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.58 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 7.08 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.79, along with a K/9 of 8.63.

The Orioles offense has slashed .247/.312/.416 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Jonathan Villar and outfielder Trey Mancini continue to lead Baltimore’s hitters. Villar is slashing .274/.339/.455 with 24 home runs, 72 RBIs, 111 runs and 40 steals, while Mancini is slashing .291/.364/.537 with 35 homers, 96 RBIs and 106 runs scored.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER