Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Betting Pick 09/28/19

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The Baltimore Orioles will be facing off against their division rival Boston Red Sox. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will broadcast the matchup. The first pitch will be at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Baltimore (+155) as the underdog to Boston (-165). If you think the game’s total will go under 10.5 runs, then bookmakers are offering even money odds (+100). Taking the over will give you -120 odds. Runline odds sit at -140 for betting the Orioles +1.5 runs and +120 for the Red Sox -1.5.

The Orioles have gone 53-107 SU this year and are 68-91 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 22.1 units for moneyline bettors and 29.6 units ATS. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 83-77 SU and 67-92 ATS. They’ve lost 25.8 units for moneyline bettors and 34.6 units ATS.

Boston games have had an over/under record of 91-65-3 in 2019. Baltimore has also been a decent over bet with a total record of 81-66-12.

John Means will get the start for the visiting Orioles. The southpaw Means is 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA and 116 strikeouts. He’s 2-1 with 10 strikeouts and a 2.35 ERA against Boston this year (four starts).

The Red Sox will send righty Jhoulys Chacin (3-11, 5.81 ERA) to the mound. Chacin has 98 punchouts and 45 walks to his name, along with a 1.54 WHIP. Chacin hasn’t faced the Orioles yet this year and did not re a start against them in 2018.

Baltimore’s pitching staff allowed 6.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.58 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 7.07 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.81, along with a WHIP of 1.41 and a K-per-9 of 8.65.

Orioles hitters have slashed .246/.312/.414 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Baltimore’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Jonathan Villar and outfielder Trey Mancini. Villar is slashing .273/.338/.453 with 24 home runs, 71 RBIs, 109 runs and 39 steals, while Mancini is hitting .290 with 34 homers, 94 RBIs and 105 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Boston’s pitching staff has allowed 5.1 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have a 4.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.39 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. In 74 games against divisional opponents, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 5.16 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.13.

The Boston offense is putting up 5.6 runs per outing, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .291/.352/.453 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Third baseman Rafael Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts have led the Red Sox offense this year. Devers is hitting .309/.360/.556 with 32 home runs, 115 RBIs and 128 runs scored, while Bogaerts has produced a line of .306/.380/.550 with 32 homers, 114 RBIs and 108 runs.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Trends

Both offenses have recorded 17 extra-base hits over their last five outings.

Boston has recorded 24.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 27.2 over its last five.

The Orioles have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.

The Orioles have an OPS of .726 this season and an OPS of .717 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Red Sox’ OPS sits at .808 overall and .808 versus righties.

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