The 2023 ATP Next Gen Finals began on November 28 at the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The annual tournament brings together eight of the top 21-and-under players on the ATP Tour and has $2 million in prize money on the line. Brandon Nakashima won last year’s event, while other past winners include Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune were the top two qualifiers for this year’s tournament but, of course, both qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals, won by Novak Djokovic. Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti also qualified, but withdrew from the event. 

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A Recap of the Group Stage

The group stage began on November 28 with Arthur Fils, Dominic Stricker, Flavio Cobolli, and Luca Nardi in the Green Group. Luca Van Assche, Alex Michelsen, Hamad Medjedovic, and Abdullah Shelbayh were in the Red Group. 

Fils won the Green Group with a perfect 3-0 record, while Stricker finished in second despite having a 1-2 record. Both Cobolli and Nardi also had a 1-2 record, but Stricker barely squeaked by with a 5-6 set record, whereas Cobolli and Nardi had 5-7 and 5-8 set records, respectively.

Medjedovic, the sixth seed, was the surprise victor in the Red Group with a perfect 3-0 record. Van Assche qualified in second place with a 2-1 record, beating Michelsen and Shelbayah. 

Semifinal Matches

Arthur Fils (-400) vs. Luca Van Assche (+275)

Fils and Van Assche meet in the first of two semifinals on Friday afternoon. Fils, as the top seed in the tournament, is the clear betting favorite. They have never played each other in an official ATP Tour event, but Van Assche has a victory over Fils in the 2021 French Open juniors competition. 

Fils is 44-22 this season, including 20-8 on indoor hard courts. Van Assche is 34-29 and 15-8 on indoor hard courts. Fils lost three matches in a row heading into the ATP Next Gen Finals, while Van Assche won two of three heading into the tournament. There’s a lot of reasons to like Van Assche for the upset here.

Dominic Stricker (+110) vs. Hamad Medjedovic (-135)

Stricker and Medjedovic have also never played each other in their careers. Stricker, the world No. 94, was just 7-8 in ATP Tour matches this season and is 19-17 in his career. He last played at the ATP 500 event in Basel, reaching the quarter-finals before losing to Ugo Humbert. He picked up a win over Casper Ruud in the Round of 16. Medjedovic was 3-0 in the round robin and had lost four ATP matches in a row before the start of the Next Gen Finals.

There’s a lot to like about Stricker in Friday’s semifinal match, especially as the underdog. He may not have performed as well as Medjedovic, but he had a tougher group and was playing better heading into the event.

Finals Prediction

If we’re assuming Van Assche and Stricker win their respective matches, that sets up an intriguing final match between two up-and-coming players. They’v also never played each other, but Van Assche is the higher-ranked player and had slightly better results as of late.

Title Winner Prediction: Van Assche (bet at BetUS)