We’re going to wrap it up in the WNBA today, and take a quick look at the series between the Connecticut Sun and the Washington Mystics. The WNBA was pretty good to us this season, where we wind up with a 40-25 record for the season. We started out strong, then hit a slump when teams started scoring more, but were able to finish strong.
The Connecticut Sun and the Washington Mystics were the two best teams during the regular season, so it’s only fitting that they’ll meet in the best-of-5 WNBA Finals. When healthy, the Mystics are the best team in the league.
These teams haven’t played each other in three months and the home team won all three meetings during the regular season, with Connecticut taking two of the three, as they were the home team twice.
Elena Delle Donne didn’t play in the Sun’s 84-69 victory in May and the Mystics were pretty bad from the field in that one, hitting just 37.5% from the field and 14.3% from 3-point range. It was a three-point Sun lead at halftime, but a 23-12 third-quarter advantage put the game away.
Delle Donne did play in the rematch, which Connecticut won 83-75 on the strength of a 50-38 scoring advantage in the second half. The Sun were strong from the floor, hitting 47.6% on 3-pointers and 47% overall.
The Mystics were ready for their first game against Connecticut at home and it was over early, as Washington outscored the Sun 29-15 in the first quarter and never let up on their way to a 101-59 butt-kicking of Connecticut. Six Mystics scored in double figures.
The Mystics are favored by 8 with a total of 166 in Game 1 and I have Washington winning 86-74 when they’re the home team and I have the Sun winning 86-82 when they’re the home team. Both teams have been off for a while, so there could be a little bit of rust at the beginning of the game, but these two teams are also veteran teams, and know how to handle a layoff, as they showed in the semifinals.
Since I’ll be watching a bit – or at least have the games on in the background – I just made a couple of token wagers and took the Mystics to win in four games at +285 and for Washington to win in five games at +250. Added up, the two bets don’t even equal a unit, so it’s strictly for fun, with the five-wager slightly larger of the two.
END OF 2019 WNBA PLAYS
Coming off a dismal day Saturday, where couldn’t do anything right. But all you can do is march forward and we’ll start with the WNBA, where we’ve had the most success.
A pair of 2-0 series, where the pressure is on both home teams, who face elimination, which historically hasn’t been much of an advantage in the WNBA playoffs.
Washington at Las Vegas: The Aces scored at least 90 points in each of the two games played in Washington, but allowed 97 and 103, so no surprise they find themselves down 2-0 in the series. Las Vegas has allowed Washington to score 95 points or more in four of the five games the teams have played this season and the lone exception was the game Elena Delle Donne missed, which also happens to be the only game Las Vegas won during the season.
It’s no secret what the Aces need to do to be successful here and that’s play better defense, something you would expect of a Bill Lambier team, but the Mystics have gotten the job done from the outside, hitting nearly 40% of their 3-point shots in the first two games and are shooting 48% from the field.
The Mystics are favored by 3 and the total is 181.5, making it the highest playoff total in the last nine years. I have this one 86-86, so will just stay away and watch.
Connecticut at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has been bet up to 5.5, while the total here has stayed at 161.5. I have Los Angeles winning this one 79-73 and am going to take the under 161.5, as LA has been a better defensive team at home this year, allowing 72.7 points in their home games and surrendering more than 82 per game on the road.
The Sun score a fair amount less on the road than they do at home and have to think the Sparks are going to try and do what they do best and that’s play defense. Los Angeles held Connecticut to 70 and 72 points in the two games that were played in Los Angeles this season and with their backs up against the wall, expecting another strong effort on the defensive side of things. The Sparks were dominated on the boards last game and think they’ll do a better job and prevent the Sun from getting so many second chances, so will take a stab on under 161.5.
END OF SEPT. 22 PICKS
The WNBA playoffs resume tonight, where the Connecticut Sun got the job done for us on Tuesday, as we move to 39-25 for the season, although the few leans at the start of the playoffs went by the wayside. Once again, the playoffs probably aren’t the ideal time to make wagers on the WNBA and we’ve been treading extremely lightly and will do once again, but do have one play.
For those wondering, the Zig-Zag system shows a 45-39-2 (53.6%) record in the WNBA, where you’re simply betting on the team that lost the previous game. If the losing team is at home the next game, the record is just 28-28-2, which includes a 7-9-1 mark as a home dog and 21-19-1 as a home favorite. On the road, the team that lost last game is 17-11 ATS, which includes a 3-1 record as an away favorite and a 14-10 record as an away underdog. But there is a definite split, as the smaller underdogs of 4 points or less are 6-2 ATS, while the larger dogs are 8-8.
Los Angeles at Connecticut: The Sun opened as 2.5-point favorites in this one and the total came out at 161, while the line is now Connecticut -1.5 with a total of 161.5. The Sun won the opener 84-75, while our numbers have Connecticut winning 87-75. The Sun did labor a bit more than I expected, as they trailed at halftime and were just up by a single point entering the fourth quarter.
The Sparks got solid play in the frontcourt, but dismal shooting from their guards, who were just 3 of 17 and 0-for-7 from 3-point range. The starting Sun guards were 16 for 34 from the field.
Las Vegas at Washington: The Mystics opened as 9-point favorites in this one with a total of 175 and Washington is now favored by 10 and the total climbed to 176.5. The key to this one is how Las Vegas will react to just coming up short in Game 1, erasing a 13-point deficit and having a chance to tie the game in the final 5 seconds. Teams who narrowly lost the previous game in the playoffs have been decent wagers, as teams who lost by four or fewer points last time are 13-6-1 ATS, but double-digit underdogs who last game are just 1-4 ATS. Could well be a bad play, but think we’ll see another up-and-down affair and taking a shot on the over 176.5.
END OF SEPT. 19 PICKS
The WNBA semifinals kick-off tonight and the top four teams have reached this spot, so nobody can say the best teams aren’t at this stage. Sure, Las Vegas probably shouldn’t have won its game with Chicago, but it’s hard to say they don’t say belong here.
Our opinions have stunk it up, but we’ll be back to regular plays, which treated us pretty well during the regular season, where we were 38-25. The numbers haven’t duplicated the same success during the playoffs, which I was worried about a little bit, hence the leans rather than regular plays so far.
Los Angeles at Connecticut: The Sun opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line has now climbed to 2.5 on a game that has seen pretty even betting. The Sun were one of the better teams at home during the season, while the Sparks had their share of troubles away from Los Angeles. The Sparks may think they’ll be able to turn it on when they want, but the Sun are a tough team to play. The teams played three times during the season and the home team came away with the victory each time. Two of the games were decided by 12 points, while the Sparks won the other game by seven points. Going to take the Sun in this one, as they’re well-rested and have a huge home court advantage. The Sun let up a little bit the last 1.5 games when they saw they couldn’t catch the Mystics for the best record in the league.
Las Vegas at Washington: The Mystics opened as 7.5-point favorites and the line has been bet up to 8.5, with Washington getting a huge majority of the early wagers in the game. The Mystics won the two games that Elene Delle Donne played by more than 20 points and lost the other game when she didn’t play. The Aces have been a team that was supposed to peak at this point in time, although it’s kind of hard to say that has happened, but they can be a little dangerous, so I’m a little hesitant to go against them in this one. Unlike the Sun game, where the spread is relatively low, things are a bit different when you start to approach double digit spreads. My numbers would have the Mystics winning by 12, but will sit this one out and see how things play out.
END OF SEPT. 17 PICKS
A pair of games in the WNBA today, as the single-game elimination quarterfinals take place. So far, our leans have stunk a little bit, but will give it one more shot, as neither of these games is likely worth a regular wager.
Seattle at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened as 7-point favorites and the line has stayed there, with a little more than two-thirds of the wagers coming in on Las Angeles. The total came out at 155 and has stayed there with pretty good two-way action on the total. The Storm weren’t quite the same team on the road during the regular season as they were at home, while the Sparks had one of the biggest home-away differences in the league, going 15-2 straight-up and 12-5 ATS at home, while they were 7-10 on the road and 5-11-1 ATS. The Sparks were 9-8 in totals at home, which is a bit of a surprise, as they can play defense when they really want to, which was the case in the last regular season game against the Storm, when they held Seattle to 68 points. Of course, they scored at least 25 points in all four quarters, winding up with 102. I made this one 82-70 for the Sparks and would take the under if I was going to play it.
Chicago at Las Vegas: The Aces only drew 4,700 fans to their home games this season, so it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense that would move from the 12,000-seat Mandolay Bay Events Center to the 19,000-seat Thomas and Mack for this game. Even if the Aces gave tickets away, not so sure they would be able to fill the arena. It also is a different look for the players in terms of perception, so it might have a slight impact on how both teams shoot from the outside, but Las Vegas most likely practiced there a little bit during the week and may have a slight edge there, as opposed to Chicago, whose players are probably playing there for the first time.
The Sky weren’t happy with the officiating last time the teams played, as Las Vegas won 100-85, but both teams shot 30 foul shots and it’s kind of hard to complain when your team actually has more free throws and the reason the Aces won is they shot 50% from the field compared to 34.2 for the Sky. The officials have taken over two of the three games, while there were just 31 combined foul shots in the first meeting between the two. I have Las Vegas winning 92-84 and would probably lay the 4 points with the Aces in this one.
END OF SEPT. 15 PICKS
The first round of the WNBA playoffs start tonight and the ladies don’t mess around. It’s a single-game elimination format for the first two rounds, so win or go home. Of course, that also means the best team doesn’t always advance.
We have a bit of a rarity tonight in that both underdogs are at lower odds than their counterparts to win the WNBA title. The Chicago Sky is +5250 to win the title, while the Mercury are +4850, yet the Sky is favored by 6 points tonight, while Minnesota is +6250 to win it all and Seattle is +7000, yet Seattle is favored tonight.
As always, just because it’s the playoffs you don’t have to bet each game and lines are probably going to be a little bit better than they were during the regular season, as the league has probably gone from being something of an afterthought to a sport the oddsmakers a paying a little more attention to, with tonight’s games being televised on ESPN2.
Phoenix at Chicago: The Sky opened as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 168 and the line is now Chicago -6 with a total of 170. I have Chicago winning 85-79 and the Sky did sweep the regular season series, winning all three times. Rookie coach James Wade won Coach of the Year for the Sky and helped them get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, which is the last season they had Elena Delle Donne. The Mercury have been solid in single-elimination games, but you can’t really like how they ended the regular season, unless they had just resigned themselves to having to win this game. Chicago will be missing starting forward Jantel Lavender, so expect to see the Mercury try to pound the ball inside to their big guns. If I had to play this one, would probably lean to the under, as that’s probably the best chance Phoenix has to keep this one close.
Minnesota at Seattle: The Storm opened 2.5 with a total of 150 and Seattle is still favored by 2.5 and the total has climbed a little bit to 152. The teams both finished with 18-16 records, but Seattle won three of the four games between the two, which gave them home court advantage in this one. Both teams did well just to get here and one of these two will see its season come to an early end. The Lynx may be playing a little better down the stretch, but this is a tough one to call. Much like the above game, I won’t do anything more than a token wager, essentially to have something on in the background while working on football stuff, but would probably lean to the Lynx if I absolutely had to choose a side here.
END SEPT. 11 PICKS
The WNBA regular season will come to an end today and all 12 teams will be in action. For some teams, such as Washington and Connecticut, the results are meaningless, while several other teams have a bit to play for regarding seeding.
Kind of a big game for us, as a win will see us wind-up the regular season with a 38-25 record, which is 60.3%, while a loss will leave us with a 37-26 record, or 58.7%.
As I mentioned last time, there is a bit of a trend that comes into play today and that’s home team have gone 31-17 ATS on the final day of the regular season since 2011. Home favorites are 22-13, while home dogs are 9-4. Surprisingly, poor teams have fared poorly, as teams with 13 wins or less are just 4-9 ATS, while those are the teams you would expect to see do well and they’re also just 1-5 ATS as a favorite.
Connecticut at Indiana: The Sun opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 3 with a total of 159. I made this one 83-78 for the Sun, who have wrapped up the No. 2 spot in the playoffs and really have nothing to play for in this one.
Seattle at Dallas: The Storm have a shot to host a first-round game on Thursday with a win here and a loss by the Lynx at Los Angeles, so as a result the line in this one has moved from Seattle -1 to Storm -3.5 and the total has climbed to 150.5. I have Dallas winning this one 80-77, but no real interest in playing the Wings in this spot.
New York at Atlanta: The Dream are favored by 2.5 and the total on this one is a 160.5, while I have Atlanta winning 76-72. Going to take a shot on the under here, as the Dream are just 1-5 when playing to a total of 159 or higher and think they may try to play a little defense after knocking off Vegas last game 78-74.
Las Vegas at Phoenix: The Aces need a win or a Chicago loss to claim the No. 4 spot entering the playoffs and are now favored by 2.5 with a total of 162. The Mercury have nothing to play for in this one, and aren’t looking like a playoff team. I have Vegas winning 80-79.
Chicago at Washington: The Mystics opened as 10.5-point favorites and the line is down to 8, while the total has dropped a couple of points to 177.5, making it the highest total we’ve seen all year. I have Washington winning 94-76. But not sure how much Delle Donne will play.
Minnesota at Los Angeles: The Sparks clinched the No. 3 spot, while the Lynx still have something to play for. La is favored by 4 with a total of 158.5 and I have LA winning 76-70.
END OF SEPT. 8 PICKS
Four games in the WNBA tonight, where I botched yesterday by staying away instead of following the numbers and taking Atlanta, who I didn’t think would pull the outright upset, but managed to do so. Might be thinking a little too much in these late season games, especially when they involve the non-playoff teams, but we do have a decent trend in play for Sunday’s games.
But first, on to today, where we’re 36-25 on the season.
Dallas at Washington: Huge mismatch here, as the Mystics are favored by 16.5 with a total of 165 and I have Washington winning 89-67. No hurry to play the under though, as Dallas is capable of scoring a little more if they give up playing defense, which could happen as they do have a home game on Sunday to end the regular season and will probably put more effort into that one.
Indiana at New York: Indiana is favored by 2.5 in this one and the total is 161.5, while I have the Fever winning 84-80. Thought we might see closer to an even game here, but the Fever check-in as a road favorite for just the third time all season and the first time since June. It’s been a disappointing season for both squads and Indiana closes the season out at home on Sunday, while New York takes to the road, making this their final home game of the season. New York packed it in a while ago, at least defensively, and have been trying to at least give the fans an entertaining game, as they’ve allowed 84 or more points in each of their last seven home games. I have this one 84-80 for Indiana, but will take a shot on the over.
Chicago at Connecticut: The Sky has a pair of tough games to end the season with, traveling to Connecticut and then Washington. They do have an outside shot at catching Las Vegas for the No. 4 spot, but it’s unlikely, as they would have to knock off both of the top two teams in the league and have Vegas drop its final game. I have this one 92-79 for the Sun, but Chicago is 8-4-1 as an away dog this season.
Minnesota at Phoenix: The Mercury were expected to be peaking at the right time, but the opposite has happened and Phoenix isn’t playing very well, but are favored by 2 with a total of 156.5. I have the Mercury winning 75-74.
END OF SEPT. 6 PICKS
Just a single game in the WNBA tonight, as the Dallas Wings visit the Connecticut Sun. The Sun opened -10.5 and the line has climbed to 11, while the total in this one has moved from 152 to 154.
Expected a little more out of the Mercury last night, but wasn’t enamored with the card, which is why they were leans and not regular plays, although we’ll get back to normal today and take the Sun -11 for a regular play.
For Dallas, this one comes in the middle of a home-and-home with the Washington Mystics, who Dallas visits next and then wraps-up the regular season with a home game against the Seattle Storm, who are still the defending NBA champions and I’d expect the Wings to give a good effort in that one.
Dallas has covered both games against Connecticut this season, pulling off a 74-73 upset in Dallas as 9-point underdogs and they dropped a 78-68 decision to Connecticut in Connecticut in the rematch, where they were getting 11 points.
The season is going to end Sunday for the Wings, so not sure if they’re really going to be motivated to play this one and will instead just gear-up for the final game in front of the home fans in a few days.
It’s a different story for the Sun, who are still chasing the Washington Mystics for the top spot in the WNBA, but they do need Washington to lose one of its two remaining games, which isn’t likely, as they are both at home, against Dallas and then a tougher one against Chicago.
The Sun really haven’t played that well at home lately. Despite going 6-0 straight-up, they’ve only managed a 1-5 ATS mark over that span, although three of those spread losses have been by a single point.
I’d like this one a little more if it was Connecticut’s final home game of the season, but they’ll be at home on Friday, although I think they have enough incentive to give a strong effort in this one. The Sun are 14-1 at home this season and if they can somehow manage to steal home court away from Washington, they will be a force to be dealt with.
Simply following the numbers in this one, but believe if there’s a time the Sun put together a strong effort it will be this one.
END OF SEPT. 4 PICKS
Three games in the WNBA, where we moved to 35-25 last time out, and none of tonight’s games appear to offer a whole lot in the way of betting value, so we’ll take a look and see what we can up with for Tuesday. We’ll have no official plays today, but there is an ESPN2 game, so we’ll look at the schedule and have a few leans.
Washington at New York: The Mystics are favored by 15 and the total is a hefty 172 in this one, where I have Washington coming away with a 92-79 victory. Tempted to take the over in this one, but totals that high have shown a slight tendency to go under over the years. The Mystics are just the second road favorite of at least 15 points in the last eight years and as Washington showed last time out, they’re doing enough enough to win, but they don’t necessarily care about covering the spread. The Liberty have allowed 90 or more points their last four games and a bit of conflicting info, as the recent play of both would point towards the over, although games played between two teams who went over the total last time out have gone under the total almost 57% of the time. If I really had to play this one, would lean to the home dog.
Seattle at Phoenix: This one has some playoff significance, as these two teams are battling it out for the No. 7 spot, with the hopes of possibly climbing a little bit higher. The first two games were played in Seattle and the teams split what were fairly low-scoring games. The Mercury are favored by 5.5 and the total is 151, while I have Phoenix winning 79-75. If I really wanted to play this one, would give the slightest of leans to the Mercury, who close out the regular season with three home games. The first two games went under the total, so wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit more scoring here, but no real opinion on the total.
Atlanta at Los Angeles: The Los Angeles Sparks are favored by 13 and the total on this one is 157, while I have it 83-71 for Los Angeles. The Sparks can play some tough defense at home, although that isn’t always a big priority of theirs, but have to believe they might put forth a little more defensive effort in this one. The Dream will probably dictate the total here, as they have pretty much packed it in defensively, going 8-2 in their last 10 games.
END OF SEPT. 3 PICKS
Three games in the WNBA for Sunday, where we moved to 34-25 for the season after the backdoor cover by the Dallas Wings on Saturday. The playoff teams have been decided, it’s just a matter of seeding and matchups, so there is still plenty of play for.
Phoenix at Chicago: The Sky opened as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 169 and the spread is holding steady, while the total has dipped slightly to 168.5. I have this one 83-79 for the Sky. Chicago has won both meetings between the two teams this season, including a 94-86 road victory a week ago. The Sky had a 48-32 scoring advantage in the second half. Diana Turasi has been horrid since here return and is just 2 for 30 from the field and has missed all 19 3-point attempts. She’s a better player than that and will resemble herself a bit more once the postseason comes around. Tough game to play, so will just stay clear.
Atlanta at Seattle: The Storm are favored by 8.5 in their final home game of the season, while the total has moved from 147.5 to 149. I have this one 78-77 for Seattle, but a little tough to take the Dream in this spot. They have a couple of home games remaining and we’ll probably see their best effort in those two contests. The road team has won both of the first two meetings, while they’ve been relatively low-scoring games. Seattle won 82-66 in Atlanta and the Dream returned the favor with a 77-66 victory in Seattle. Going to take a shot on the over 149 in this one, as believe the Storm will look to give the fans a decent performance and the Dream are likely to be a willing partner and could be more concerned with scoring than playing defense in this meaningless game for them.
Indiana at Minnesota: The Lynx are favored by 9.5 and the total has climbed from 156 to 157 with close to three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over. Minnesota is also playing its final home game of the season and the teams split the first two games, both of which were played in Indiana. I have this one 81-74. Hard to figure out how the Lynx will approach this one, as defense has been the team’s trademark the past few years, but they’re not the same team this year.
END OF SEPT. 1 PICKS
Just two games in the WNBA tonight and held off as long as I could hoping for a little line movement, but it doesn’t look like we’re going to see any more in the near future, so time to get going, as we bring our 33-25 record into Saturday night’s action.
Washington at Dallas: The Mystics opened 10.5 and have moved 11 after Washington received a little more than 70% of the early wagers. While the Mystics lead the WNBA, the pressure is on for them to win, as they lead Connecticut by half a game, but the Sun have the tie-breaker if the two wind up tied with the same record. That said, the spread is a little too high here, as the Wings have been a decent team at home all season and they’ve been especially woeful on the road this season.
The Mystics won the first meeting of the year at home by an 86-62 margin, as Dallas was outscored 36-9 in 3-point shooting and saw a 20-15 first-quarter lead turn into a bit of a butt-kicking, with Washington out-scoring Dallas 30-16 in the fourth quarter. I have this one just 82-78 for the Mystics, so will go ahead and go against the gran and take a shot on Dallas +11 in this one.
Los Angeles at Las Vegas: Decent game here and the Aces are favored by 3.5 with a total of 163, while I have the Aces winning by an 87-80 final. The Sparks have been playing well for the most part, although they can credit home court for part of that, as LA isn’t the same team on the road as they are at home. They do have more big-game experience than the Aces, however, so a bit of a tough call.
END OF AUG. 31 PICKS
Just a single WNBA game on the slate today, where we’re 32-25 for the season after a bit of a slump, but hoping to get things straightened out and finish on a positive note. Since there’s just the one game on the schedule today, we’ll as we typically do and look at a few trends.
August is still a pretty good month for overs so far, as totals have gone 41-17-3 after seeing an average score of 161.4 points for the month, up a few points from the season average. Favorites have 34-25-1 against the number in August and road favorites are 12-9 after home dogs covered two of the last three. Away favorites of 6 or more are just 4-4.
Connecticut at New York: The Sun opened as 9-point favorites and the total on this one is 161. Connecticut doesn’t score as much as they do at home when they’re the visiting team, while the Liberty appeared to have packed it in for the season and are more worried about boosting their scoring averages than they are playing defense. The Liberty have allowed 90 or more points in each of the last three games, all of them losses, but at least the home games were somewhat entertaining from a fan’s perspective, as a 90-87 loss is better than a 70-65 loss.
The Sun won 94-79 here earlier this month and really don’t see why this one should be much different. Connecticut is trying to catch the Mystics for the best record in the WNBA. Washington has a one-game lead, but the Sun do hold the tie-breaker, so they have a chance for home court advantage through the playoffs if they can pull all even with Washington. For a team that’s 14-1 at home this season that would be huge.
The Liberty have their next three games at home and unfortunately for New York, the first two are against Connecticut and Washington. The final regular season home game is on Sept. 6 against Indiana and that’s the one I’d expect to see a decent effort.
The Sun have a couple of games against non-playoff teams and a date with Chicago, but the Mystics do get Dallas twice in their final four games, along with New York and Chicago.
I made this one 88-77 for Connecticut and will go ahead and take the over 161 in this one, as I expect New York to try and stay with their higher-scoring ways.
END OF AUG. 30 PICKS
A full slate of WNBA games for Tuesday, where we’re still mired in a bit of a slump and have fallen to 31-25 for the season. The WNBA is still in the middle of their four or five games one day, take a day off, repeat pattern, which I detest, but on to today’s slate of games.
Phoenix at New York: Diana Turasi returned for the Mercury last game and she looked like a player who hadn’t played in quite some time, going just 2 of 13 from the field and finishing with 12 points. The Mercury are clinging to the No. 8 spot in the playoffs, but do have a 3.5-game lead over Indiana, so barring a meltdown they’ll advance, it’s just a matter of whether they can catch Minnesota or Seattle for a higher seed. The Mercury are favored by 6 with a total of 157 and I have Phoenix winning this one 82-76.
Las Vegas at Indiana: The Aces are favored by 7 points on the road and the total here is 160.5 and I have Las Vegas winning this one 85-77. The Aces are currently No. 4 and there’s teams just in front of them and just behind, so they can really finish anywhere and need a win in this one.
Los Angeles at Washington: The Mystics are favored by 6.5 with a total of 163.5 and I have Washington winning 87-73. Los Angeles is playing good basketball, but the majority of that came at home. LA is just 6-8 on the road this year and have lost three of their last four. Los Angeles did thump Washington last game in LA, so a bit of a revenge spot in this ESPN2 contest. Would probably lean to Washington if I really wanted to play this one and watch it.
Chicago at Minnesota: The Lynx just moved to 3-point favorites in this one with a total of 166 and I have Minnesota winning this one by an 86-80 final. Minnesota won the first two meetings of the year between the two.
Connecticut at Seattle: The Storm is favored by 1 with a total of 150.5 and I have Seattle coming away with a 79-78 victory here. The Sun have won the first two meetings between the two teams this season, both of which were played in Connecticut. Seattle was dismal last time out in a 63-54 loss to Indiana, which puts them in a decent over situation. With the numbers calling for 157 points, will take a stab on the over in this one.
END OF AUG. 27 PICKS
Definitely have hit a slump here in the WNBA, as I completely yakked last night, choosing Indiana over Minnesota on a card that I went back and forth on. Instead of at least using both games, I ended up choosing the wrong one, as we fell to a lackluster 30-25 on the season after running in the 60% range for much of the season. But a 2-7 run will do that to your winning percentage, so let’s see what we can come up with for today.
Atlanta at New York: The first game on the schedule is a pretty ugly one, as the Atlanta Dream visit the New York Liberty in a battle of cellar dwellers. The Dream have lost 12 straight games and the Liberty just snapped an 8-game losing skid last time they took to the court. New York won the first meeting of the year between the two teams, grabbing a 74-58 decision in Atlanta in a game that was as ugly as it sounds. Atlanta shot 27.1% from the field and it could have been a bigger margin of victory for New York, but the Liberty were just 9.1% from 3-point range in that one. I have Atlanta winning this one 82-77 and will go ahead and take the Dream plus the points in this one.
Las Vegas at Connecticut: The other early game promises to be a bit more interesting, as the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun battle it out in a game featuring two of the top three teams in the league. The game opened even and now the Sun are favored by 1.5 after getting 70% of the early wagers. The total has moved slightly from 160.5 to 161.5. The teams split the first two meetings of the year, both of which were played in Las Vegas and I have the Sun taking an 83-79 victory in this one.
Washington at Chicago: Another pretty good match-up in this one, as the Mystics visit Chicago in a game that sees Elena Delle Donne back in her old stomping grounds. She forced a trade out of Chicago after the 2016 season and the Mystics have gone 8-0 against Chicago since then. Washington is favored by 5.5 with a total of 173.5 in this one and I have the Mystics winning 88-85. Washington cruised to a 103-85 victory in Washington and won the rematch in Chicago 81-74 back in June.
END OF AUG. 23 PICKS
Just a pair of games on tap in the WNBA today and neither of them are all that exciting from a fan’s standpoint and we’ll look to use that to our advantage if possible tonight.
Since this is the first day in a while where we haven’t had a full slate of games, we have a chance to look at a few of the things that have developed so far this season, with special emphasis on this month, as scoring is still up at 161 points per game compared to 155.8 for the season, and totals are still rolling along, going 28-11-3, which is 71.8% overs. For the season, unders are still in front, with a 76-80-6 ledger.
Home underdogs have also cooled off considerably this month, going just 5-10, while going 34-23-1 for the season.
Dallas at Minnesota: The Lynx opened as 7.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 7, while the total has climbed a little bit after opening 145. It did reach 147.5, but now a few books have lowered it back to 147, but it should stay in that vicinity for the rest of the day. The Lynx come into this one off a loss at Los Angeles and Minnesota is 6-8 straight-up and 8-5-1 ATS after a loss, including a 5-2-1 ATS mark as a favorite. The Lynx lead both Dallas and Indiana by four games for the final playoff spot with seven games remaining and have covered both games as a favorite of 7 or more so far. The Wings are playing well and have covered four straight games, but are still just 1-12 straight-up and 6-7 ATS on the road. I have this one 80-70 for the Lynx.
Indiana at Los Angeles: The Sparks are favored by 10.5 in this one and the total is 157.5. Los Angeles is coming off its win over Minnesota and have gone 5-4 as a home favorite this season. The Fever are a bit of a slide, going just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight games and are pretty much down for as far as the playoffs go. Still, it’s a little improvement from a year ago. The Sparks won 90-84 last month in Indiana and I have them winning this one 80-70, so going to take a shot on the Fever +10.5 here. Los Angeles has a game with Connecticut on tap, so this isn’t the greatest of spots for Los Angeles.
END OF AUG. 22 PICKS
We’ve hit a bit of a slump in the WNBA, dropping three straight, compounded by each one coming down to the final minute, only to get the loss in the end. Looking to get back on track, as we have four games on the slate today. We fell to 29-24 for the season.
New York at Indiana: The Fever opened -5.5 and the line is down to Indiana -5, as the New York Liberty are in the middle of a freefall, much like occurred last season. New York was 7-7 at one point this season and had earned road wins over Phoenix and LA, but have dropped 11 of 12 to fall to 8-18 last time out. The Fever are coming off a 39-point thumping at the hands of the Mystics and home favorites off a 30-point loss or greater have gone 7-6 straight-up and 6-7 ATS. I have Indiana winning 84-78.
Chicago at Atlanta: The Sky opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has now hit Chicago-6 with more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the home team. The total has moved from 159.5 to 162 in this one, which I have 80-80, although home dogs on lengthy losing streaks haven’t been great wagers over the years, with home underdogs who have lost at least seven straight going just 11-16-1 against the spread and the Dream are in the midst of an 11-game slide. Chicago has won both games played between the two this season.
Phoenix at Las Vegas: Brittney Griner will be back for the Mercury and the Aces welcomed back A’ja Wilson last game, so the two teams will be close to full strength when they meet in Las Vegas tonight. Even though Phoenix guard Diana Turasi has been medically cleared to return, she’s looking at Sunday return date after missing all but one game for the Mercury this season. Phoenix won the first meeting between the two teams, although that was early in the season back in May. The Aces are favored by 8.5 with a total of 158.5 in this one and I have Las Vegas coming away with an 84-77 victory in what could be a decent game.
Minnesota at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened 6 and the line is down to 5.5, while the total has moved from 154 to 155.5. Both teams have lost two in a row entering this one and both haven’t played the defense they’re known for in those two games. I have this one 75-70 for Los Angeles and hate to take an under in the middle of this scoring increase, but have to believe both teams will look to make some defensive amends in this one and will take a shot on the under.
END OF AUG. 20 PICKS
A five-game slate in the WNBA today, which I’ve never really liked, as I’d much prefer to see a couple of games per day, but nothing we can do about it.
Indiana at Washington: The Mystics clinched a playoff spot last game and now host the Indiana Fever, who are three games behind the Mercury for the final playoff spot. The Mystics have won a pair of high scoring games so far this season and come into this one favored by 13 with a total of 166, while I have it lower-scoring at 85-71 for Washington.
Dallas at Connecticut: The Sun are favored by 11 and the total here is 149.5, making it the lowest total Connecticut has played to at home this season. Despite looking to become the second team to clinch a playoff spot this season, the Sun have dropped their lone game against the Wings this season, falling 74-73 in Dallas, so a bit of a revenge game in this one. Strangely, neither team scored in the final 1:23 of the game. The one negative is that Connecticut is coming off a hard-fought one-point win against Seattle and has Las Vegas on tap. The loss in Dallas should erase a bit of the flat spot and I have the Sun winning 87-69. Going to go ahead and take the over in this one, as I think the Sun will put forth a decent effort in a revenge spot.
New York at Phoenix: The Mercury are favored by 5.5 with a total of 156 in this one and it is the last game before the team gets back Brittany Griner from her three-game suspension. I have the Mercury winning this one 85-73, but Griner is worth a bit. The Liberty did come into Phoenix and win the only game played between the two teams this season.
Las Vegas at Chicago: This one is shaping up to be a pretty good game, as the Aces are favored by 1 with a total of 166 and I have Las Vegas winning this one 84-83. Games with extremely high totals of 165 and higher are just 3-8 this season, but hard to take the under with these two teams.
Minnesota at Seattle: The Storm are favored by 2.5 with a total of 149.5, while I have the Lynx winning 75-71 in this one. Seattle has won two of the three meetings between the two teams this season, including last game that was played in Minnesota.
END OF AUG. 18 PICKS
Another loss with an under on Tuesday, as the Lynx had a few too many trips to the foul line and the game went over the total in the final minute of play. When a WNBA team attempts 26 or free throws, totals have gone 439-212-6 (67.4%) over the years. Ten of the 27 games in which a team has shot at least 26 foul shots have occurred in August, so you have to wonder if the league asked officials to be a little more whistle happy and help get the scores up.
Three games on today’s slate, where we fell to 29-22 against the spread last night.
Los Angeles at Dallas: The Sparks have won five straight, although the last four of those came at home, and now travel to face a short-handed Dallas team after Kayla Thornton and Kristine Anigwe received suspensions from the league after last game’s altercation in Phoenix. The Wings have played the Sparks tough this year, winning at home and losing in a covering effort at LA, after leading by 10 at halftime. The Sparks are favored by 6.5 with a total of 147, while I have this one 77-77, although that doesn’t account for the missing players.
Seattle at Washington: The Mystics are favored by 10 with a total of 161 and I have Washington winning 84-74. After being upset at home by Seattle in the first meeting between the two, Washington took out some frustrations against the Storm with a 99-79 win a few weeks ago. Washington did leave its starters in the game a little more than was necessary in that one, with Delle Donne not coming out until there was 1:35 remaining, which probably isn’t the smartest thing to do with your franchise player who has battled some injuries.
Connecticut at Phoenix: While the Wings are missing a couple of players as a result of the fight against Phoenix, the Mercury will be missing the league’s leading scorer in this one, as Brittney Griner will be sitting out for this ESPN2 contest. Griner is also 12th in rebounding. The Mercury have lost both games to the Sun already this season, although both games were played in Connecticut. As a result of Griner’s absence, the Sun have moved from -4.5 to -6 and I’m going to take the home dog in this one. DeWanna Bonner and Leilani Mitchell are both capable of picking up some of the slack and if there’s a game the Mercury are going to rally together, it could very well be this one.
END OF AUG. 14 PICKS
A pair of games in the WNBA tonight after an off day yesterday, although neither of them are too enticing from a fan’s perspective, as a couple of the bottom feeders are in action. We’re at 29-21 through our first 50 games, so hoping to keep that up down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Minnesota at New York: The Lynx opened -5.5 with a total of 158.5 and both the spread and the total have remained consistent. I have this one 80-71 for Minnesota, who is 1-1 against the Liberty so far this season, with the home team winning each game.
One thing Minnesota has done well this season is bounce back from a subpar defensive effort, going 6-1-1 ATS after allowing 80 or more and they allowed over 100 last game, so you have to expect a better effort here, although a date with Washington is on tap and it was the Mystics who defeated Minnesota 101-78 last game, so probably not the greatest of spots for the Lynx. Minnesota is just 3-4 straight-up and 2-5 ATS as an away favorite, while New York is 4-3-1 as a home dog this season. The Lynx are 1-4 when the total is greater than 157 and have to think they look to make some defensive amends after last game, so will take a shot on the under 158.5 in this one.
Atlanta at Las Vegas: The Aces opened as 12.5-point favorites and are still there, while the total has climbed from its opening 151 to 153. Las Vegas has played well in games that are predicted to be low-scoring, going 4-1 straight-up and against the number when the total is 155 or less, while the Dream have gone 9-7 ATS, but just 4-12 straight-up, with most of those covers coming early in the season. Atlanta is 3-4 their last seven games as a dog with a total that low.
The Aces are coming off a decent win against Connecticut and have Chicago up next and the Sky upset Vegas at home two games ago, so you can’t blame the Aces for looking ahead a little bit. Vegas is 3-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite, while the Dream has posted a 6-4 ATS mark as an away underdog. I have this one 84-77 for Las Vegas, so the numbers like Atlanta and the over, and I’d lean that way, but most likely won’t get involved.
END OF AUG. 13 PICKS
Four games in the WNBA today, with several mid-afternoon games and a couple of early evening games. Oddsmakers were a bit late posting the numbers, as has been the case all season.
Minnesota at Washington: The Mystics opened as 9-point favorites with a total of 162 and the line is currently Washington -9 and 160.5. I have this one 80-71 in favor of Washington, so a strong lean to the under here, but the Mystics are on a 10-3-1 totals run. The Lynx can play good defense, but their two worst defensive efforts of the season came after big defensive efforts, so just going to stay away from this one. Games with totals of 160 or higher have gone 10-3 since the start of July.
Seattle at New York: The Storm are favored by 4 in this one and the total is 155.5, while I have Seattle winning this one 83-75. Even though home underdogs have cooled down as of late, no interest in taking a road favorite in this spot, as away favorites off a home win are just 7-13-1 for the season.
Chicago at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened as 6-point favorites in this one and the line just dropped to 5.5 after the Sky has been receiving close to two-thirds of the early wagers in this one. The total opened at 163.5 and has stayed there throughout the morning with 56% of the wagers coming in on the under. I was expecting the total to be a little bit lower and I have this one 86-76 in favor of Los Angeles.
Connecticut at Las Vegas: The Aces will again be without A’ja Wilson and that hurt them in their loss to Chicago, but what really hurt Las Vegas was Chicago’s Stefanie Dolson, as the Aces shot 32% when the Sky’s big player was in the game and over 50% when she was on the bench. Jonquel Jones doesn’t have the same physical impact of Dolson and have to expect a better effort out of the Aces in this ESPN2 game. I have this one 85-80 for Las Vegas and lean to the over, but the problem is Connecticut’s road output is nothing like it is when they’re at home. For the season, the Sun are averaging nearly 10 fewer points per game away from home. Connecticut is 1-2-1 on the road when the total is 160 or higher and one of those unders came here in June when they defeated Las Vegas 80-74. The total then was 168, and it’s now 161, so going to take a shot on the over 161 in this one.
END OF AUG. 11 PICKS
No official plays today, as lines aren’t out, but we’ll take a look at the two games on the schedule, and we’ve had our second three-game skid in the WNBA to fall to 28-21 for the season. The last one was a little painful, as it came down to the final 20 seconds, but that’s how things go in the WNBA at times; just one of those sequences where a team makes a dumb foul or two in the final minute and the final outcome doesn’t go your way.
One thing we’ve seen so far in August is a huge increase in scoring, as teams are averaging 79.8 points per game compared to 77.3 for the season. Likewise July was a low-scoring month, as teams averaged just 76.2 points per game. No surprise a few of the games in our recent skid have been under plays, as overs are 11-4-2 so far this month. It remains to be seen if that trend is going to continue, but it has been a good start to August for over bettors.
Atlanta at Indiana: The Dream visit the Fever in an early start for Saturday in what is by all practical purposes a pretty ugly game. The Dream are 5-18, worst in the league and have lost eight straight, and have only covered twice in that time frame. One of those losses was a 61-59 loss at Indiana 10 days ago, where they did get the cover as 5-point underdogs and the game easily went under the total. Have to expect the line to be about the same today, although it wouldn’t be a shock to see the total drop slightly from the 152 it was for that contest. I have Atlanta winning this one 79-77, so would give the Dream plus the points a look, but not sure if I’d be able to pull the trigger on the game.
Dallas at Phoenix: Dallas’ road woes are a bit of a mystery, as the Wings are 0-11 straight-up, 4-7 ATS and have gone 2-9 in totals when out of the Lonestar State and 6-6 straight-up, 7-5 ATS at home. They have gone 2-8-2 in totals at home, so they’ve seen pretty consistent in regards to not being able to score at either location. The Wings average 72.8 points at home, but just 65.5 on the road, where they allow 78.4 compared to allowing 71.3 points in front of the home fans. The Mercury have been a disappointment this season, going 11-11 straight-up, although they’ve been better at home this season, where they are 7-2 straight-up and 5-4 against the number. Phoenix is outscoring foes 81.7 to 75.1 when they play in the Valley of the Sun. I have the Mercury winning this one 83-69 and you have to believe they’ll be favored by 7 to 8 points (they were favored by 7 on July 17 in a non-covering win). Would likely look at the home team here.
END OF AUG. 10 PICKS
A two-game slide in the WNBA, which has knocked us down to 28-20 on the season, as we saw the ups-and-downs of WNBA betting yesterday. After a high-scoring first half, the under 164 didn’t look too good at all, but a 28-point third quarter made it 60-59 entering the fourth quarter, only to see a record-breaking fourth quarter, with Chicago outscoring New York 42-32.
Three games on today’s slate and once again, oddsmakers have been a bit slow on the draw, releasing the lines at 10:30 a.m.
Indiana at Washington: The Mystics opened up as 13-point favorites and the line dropped to 12.5 pretty quickly, while the total opened at 166.5 and dropped to 165.5. I made this one 83-72 for the Mystics, who return home after a brief two-game road trip. The Fever don’t always play the greatest of defense on the road, but they are 7-6 straight-up when they hold the opposition to fewer than 80 points. The total is pretty high in this one and have to think Indiana won’t try to get involved in a high-scoring contest, so will take a shot on the under.
Phoenix at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened 6 with a total of 151 and the Sparks are still favored by 6 with the total climbing to 152.5. Part of that move may have to do with the Mercury scoring 103 points against the Mystics last time out, although teams off a 100-point effort are just 62-72 in totals the next time they take the court. The Sparks are 5-4 in home totals this season, allowing 75.6 points per game and have only allowed 80 or more points three times this year. Phoenix is just 3-9 in away totals and have dropped four of their last five away from home. Would probably lean to the under if I had to play this one.
Dallas at Seattle: The Storm opened as 8-point favorites and the total was 146.5, while Seattle is now up to 8.5 and the total has climbed slightly to 148. The Wings have been pretty dismal on the road this season, going 0-10 straight-up and 4-6 against the number. Lack of offense has hurt Dallas, who is just scoring 66.3 points on the road, which is why they’ve gone 2-8 in away totals. The Storm are 8-4 at home and 6-5-1 against the spread, while going 5-7 in totals. The Storm’s last game at home was their worst, losing 99-79 to the Mystics.
END OF AUG. 8 PICKS
A brutal fourth quarter from the Atlanta Dream sent us to a loss last night, dropping our WNBA record to 28-19 for the season and once again we’re faced with just a single game tonight, as the New York Liberty visits the Chicago Sky. Chicago opened as 8.5-point favorites and the line dropped to 7.5 pretty quickly, while the total came out at 164.
The Sky have won each of the first two meetings between the teams, taking a 91-83 road victory in the first game between the two. That final may have been a little misleading, as 12 points were scored in the final 38 seconds, as the Liberty were fouling trying to get back into the game and the fourth quarter saw a total of 57 points scored. Chicago attempted 20 foul shots in the game and also hit better than 50% from the field. The Liberty weren’t that great from the field, but did hit 10 of 22 from 3-point range to keep this one close.
The Liberty left its defense at home in the rematch, as the Sky shot 54.3% from the field and scored at least 24 points in each of the first three quarters on their way to a 99-83 victory. The Sky attempted 24 foul shots, while New York went to the line 25 times in one of just three games this season that has seen both teams attempt at least 24 foul shots. Over the years, those games have seen the total go over 78% of the time, so it’s no surprise to see such a low-scoring game last time.
This is a tough game to call, as I have Chicago winning 87-76, so going to take a stab on the under in this one. The Liberty have seen that they’re not going to be able to outscore Chicago, so expecting them to try and keep the game a little lower-scoring than the first two. While the first two games went over the total, think this one will be a little different, as if there’s one thing WNBA coaches can do it’s change the style of the game a little bit and it’s seldom that you see a similar type of game three times in a row between teams in the same season.
Chicago is playing well and they’re playing better defense at home, where they are on a 1-4-1 totals run, so think the under has a chance.
END OF AUG. 7 PICKS
Just a single game in the WNBA tonight, where we moved to 28-18 last time out, as the Minnesota Lynx visit the Atlanta Dream. The Lynx opened as 4-point favorites and the total has moved from 147.5 to 146.
The Lynx are likely to get the majority of the wagers in this one, especially after the Dream were just thumped 87-75 at home by Indiana. But Minnesota is struggling almost as much and have dropped four straight and five of their last six, including a 60-53 decision at Atlanta. The Lynx did win the first meeting of the year between the two teams, taking an 85-68 home victory back on July 2.
Home underdogs have cooled off quite a bit on the last couple of weeks, going 2-7 ATS over their last nine attempts, but are still 31-17-1 on the season. Home underdogs of four or more points are 16-11-1 on the season, so they’re not quite performing as well as home underdogs overall, but are still doing pretty well.
The Dream have lost seven straight games and home underdogs who have dropped seven or more contests are just 11-15-1 against the number over the years.
One key to this game is how the Lynx are going to rebound from a demoralizing loss against the Fever last time, as Minnesota led by as much as 20 points in the first half and were able to just muster 27 points in the second half after scoring 23 and 25 in each of the first two quarters. The Lynx had seven players with at least two turnovers and finished with 21 for the game, while the Fever finished with 14.
The first meeting between the two say Minnesota leading 38-34 at halftime, only to have a 28-16 third quarter and essentially put the game out of reach. Stephanie Talbot was 5 of 9 from 3-point range in that one and the Lynx were 7 for 16 as a team.
The rematch was ugly, as Atlanta outscored the Lynx 23-21 in the second half, with both teams shooting 35% or lower in the contest. Atlanta was just 4 of 25 in 3-point shots, while Minnesota wasn’t much better at 3 for 12. The Dream did hold a slight rebounding advantage and attempted six more field goals, along with six more free throws, which turned out to be the difference in the final outcome.
The Lynx are 4-6 straight-up and ATS on the road, while the Dream are 4-8 straight-up and against the number at home, including 4-5 ATS as a home dog.
My numbers have the Dream pulling out the win, so will go ahead and take a shot on Atlanta +4.
END OF AUG. 6 PICKS
Three games on the slate in the WNBA for Sunday, where we moved to 27-18 for the season on Saturday. A couple of decent ones on the schedule with all of them late afternoon or early evening games.
Connecticut at New York: The Sun opened as 5.5-point favorites and this one hasn’t moved despite Connecticut getting more than 60% of the early wagers in the game. The total has held at 158.5 with pretty decent two-way action there. I have the Sun winning this one 83-79 and they had a bit of a rough time with New York in the first meeting of the year, winning 70-63 as 9.5-point favorites. This is the first of a four-game road trip for the Sun, who are coming off a tough win against Phoenix and have Minnesota and Las Vegas up next, so probably not the greatest of spots for the team.
Seattle at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened 6.5 and the line has dropped to 5.5 with the betting being pretty split on this one, while the total has dropped slightly from 152.5 to 151.5 with close to two-thirds of the wagers landing on the under. I have the Sparks winning this one by a 77-72 score. The home team has won each of the first two meetings between the two, with the Sparks winning by 7 at home in May and Seattle returning the favor with an 84-62 drubbing of Los Angeles in June. The Sparks are coming off a big win against Las Vegas and have Phoenix up next, but this is also a big game and don’t see any letdown or look-ahead situation, which could occur a little later down the road when they host the Sky in a week.
Washington at Phoenix: The Mystics opened as 5.5-point favorites and are now favored by 6.5 after getting a slight majority of the wagers. The total is at 160 after opening at 160.5 and seeing the betting pretty much split down the middle. The Mercury have been a home dog twice this season and have won outright both times, defeating the Aces by two and knocking off the Sparks by 10. The Mystics defeated the Mercury at home 99-93 on Tuesday and then went to Seattle and finally got a win against the Storm, so not the ideal spot for Washington. The Mercury can match Washington on the inside and I have this one 82-80 for Washington so will take a stab on Phoenix +6.5.
END OF AUG. 4 PICKS
Three games in the WNBA, where we fell to 26-18 last night, as the Mystics ran all over the Storm. It was also the fourth straight loss for home underdogs, who are 29-14-1 on the season and we have road favorites in all three games today.
Minnesota at Indiana: The Lynx opened -1 and are now favored by 3 after getting more than 80% of the early wagers in the game, while the total has moved from 153.5 to 151 with more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the under. The Fever snapped a losing streak last time out, defeating the Dream 61-59 in a game that was as ugly as the final score indicates. The Lynx won here earlier this season by a 78-74 final, in a game that the Fever really struggled from the field at 38.7%. The Lynx shot just below 47% in the contest and both teams were a bit sloppy with 17 turnovers. I have the Fever winning 82-77 and am going to go against the line move and take the over 151, as Indiana is 4-0 in totals after scoring less than 70 points and we should see a few more shot attempts if the teams don’t turn the ball over so much.
Chicago at Atlanta: The Sky opened -3 and the number moved to 4 with the betting pretty well split and I have the Dream winning 81-77, as they have shown a tendency to play hard at home, especially on the defensive side of things. Part of that is due to Atlanta being a pretty dismal offensive team. Chicago won the first meeting between the two teams 77-76 in Chicago.
Las Vegas at Dallas: The Aces opened as 7-point favorites and the line dropped to Las Vegas -5.5 after the Wings received a little more than 70% of the early wagers in the game. I have the Aces winning 80-76, while the total has dropped all the way to 148 with more than 75% of the bets on the under. The Aces thumped Dallas twice in Las Vegas, scoring 86 points each time and allowing 68 and 54. Las Vegas led by 15 points at halftime in each of those games, so Dallas needs a better start here.
END OF AUG. 3 PICKS
Just one game tonight in the WNBA, as the Washington Mystics visit the Seattle Storm in a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals, where the Storm swept the Mystics on their way to the title. So it goes without saying that this is a revenge game for Washington, although the same could be said for the first meeting of the year between the two and the Storm came away with a 74-71 road victory as 9-point underdogs.
You have to give credit to Seattle this season, as the Storm are 12-9 and missing Breanna Stewart, one of the top three players in the league, as well as Sue Bird. Seattle is also alternating between two home courts this year and seeing their coach miss some time due to health issues, so it’s been a successful season so far.
Being without some offensive firepower has seen Seattle get back to basics and that begins with playing defense and the Storm have only allowed 80 or more points five times this season and have held eight teams below 70 points on the year.
Seattle’s defense will have to be at their best, however, as Washington is leading the league in scoring and have scored 90 or more points in three of their last four games.
The Mystics opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has been bet up to 5, with Washington attracting 75% of the early wagers, while the total is at 159. Since I have Washington winning 82-77, we’re right on the number with both the side and the total, but will go ahead and take a shot on the under 159 in this one, as have to believe the Storm will try to keep the game in the 70s, which is really their best chance at pulling off the upset once again.
There are some trends that point both directions, while the majority of the total trends are pointing towards the over, but it’s not really enough to alter my opinion on this one. The Mystics were in action earlier this week, while the Storm are making their first appearance on the court since before the All-Star break, so Seattle may show a little rust and have to hope if that’s the case it’s on the offensive side, as defense is something that should stay with a team even during a bit of a break.
END OF AUG. 2 PICKS