Last Updated: 2019-06-25
A pair of games in the WNBA tonight after a night off last night, as we moved to 15-10 on Sunday.
Minnesota at Indiana: We’ve seen a change in the favorites in this game, as Indiana opened -1 with a total of 154 and now the Lynx are -1.5 with a total of 152.5. Minnesota did hit -2 and the line has come back a little bit.
The Fever can match last season’s win total tonight if they can pull off the minor upset in front of the home fans. They came up short in their bid for win No. 6 in Seattle on Sunday, but did put up a decent fight against the Storm, getting the cover in a 65-61 loss. It could be a tough loss to bounce back from, as the Fever rallied to tie the game with 35 seconds remaining, but a Seattle basket and an Indiana miss and foul, accounted for the final score. Neither team was that great offensively, as the score indicated.
Despite home underdogs doing so well this season, the Fever are 0-1 in that situation, falling by seven to Phoenix as 2.5-point underdogs. Indiana hasn’t been blown out in any game yet, but a close loss won’t do much good here, as I have Minnesota winning by a pair. I do have this one 79-77 and with home underdogs who scored 62 points or less last game sporting a 24-7 totals record, will go ahead and take a shot on the over here.
Seattle at Las Vegas: The Aces opened -8 and the line has dropped to -6.5 with Seattle getting 80% of the early wagers. The total has moved from 156 to 156.5 with more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. The Storm are just 1-5-1 in away totals this season and 2-8-1 dating back to last season, while in the middle of a 5-15-1 overall run.
The Aces are just 5-4 as a favorite this season and 4-5 against the number, as they’re getting a little over-priced, which we expected at the beginning of the season. Seattle isn’t what they were last year due to injuries, but they still have some talented players who are playing hard. I have the Aces winning this one by five, so will stay away from the side. I have this one going over, but Seattle’s under run will keep me away.
END OF JUNE 25 PICKS
A few too many points in Las Vegas last night, dropping us to 14-10 on the season on a day and I should have just followed the numbers instead of trying to get cute. It happens.
Washington at Atlanta: The Mystics opened as 9-point favorites and the line is still there with two-thirds of the bets in the game coming in on Washington. I have the Mystics winning 89-75, but not about to go against home underdogs until they cool off some, as they’re 16-3-1 ATS on the season. The total dropped from 159.5 to 156.5.
Los Angeles at Phoenix: The Mercury are expected to see the return of Diana Turasi tonight, who has been out all season after back surgery in April, and she is definitely needed, as the Mercury have labored to a 2-5 start. Phoenix has to hope she’s in better form than Sparks’ star Candace Parker, who made her debut two games ago and was expected to give the team a big lift, but she’s been 1 of 9 shooting in her two games so far, but is far too talented to keep that up. The Sparks opened -1 and now the game is even with Phoenix getting the majority of wagers in the game. I have Phoenix winning by a pair, 82-80, but will just stay away until we see how Taurasi fares out there.
Connecticut at Chicago: The Sun opened 5 and are now favored by 5.5, while I have them winning by five. The Sun are playing extremely well, having won their past seven games and are looking to make it eight in a row for the first time in 13 years. The total has climbed several points to 161.5, while I have it at 164. Going to take a shot on the Sky plus the points in this one.
Indiana at Seattle: The Storm look to remain undefeated at home this season when Indiana comes calling and Seattle opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line is down to 5.5 with the Fever getting a slight majority of the wagers. I have Seattle winning this one by three and can see a bit of a letdown from the Storm here, but no interest in taking a stand on this one. The total has held pretty steady at 154.5, while I have it at 159.
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We moved to 14-9 in the WNBA Friday night, the lone bright spot in an ugly day, and now have a pair of games to deal with one Saturday.
New York at Minnesota: The Lynx opened as 7-point favorites and the line has moved to 7.5, while the total has climbed a little bit to 157.5 after opening at 155.5. The Lynx got off to a fast start this season, but have fallen on hard times recently, dropping their last four games. They have been competitive in all five of their losses, as the biggest deficit they’ve had all season has been seven points. In Minnesota’s four wins, they’ve won two by double-digits and two by three or fewer points, so seven of the team’s nine games have been decided by seven or fewer points.
The Liberty defeated Minnesota the last time the teams played a 75-69 home victory. This is just the fourth away game of the season for New York, who is 1-2, losing by 15 or more twice and they also pulled off an upset of Los Angeles. I have this one 83-71 for the Lynx, but a little hard to lay that many points with a team who is showing a bit of a tendency to play close games.
Dallas at Las Vegas: The Aces opened as 16-point favorites and the line dropped to 14, but has climbed back up to 14.5. The total has climbed a little bit to 152 after opening at 150. The Wings have gone under the total in all seven games so far this season and have won their past two games after dropping the first five. The Aces dropped last game to Washington and this is the third time they’ve been favored by double digits this season. They defeated New York 100-65 in one of those, but also lost outright in the other, so not a whole lot to go on in this one.
Liz Cambage facing her old team will be the big story line in this one, but Las Vegas needs to worry about playing better than anything else. The Wings are hurting for offensive talent, but they have played hard and allowed more than 80 points just once all season. Going to give a shot to the under in this one and hope the Wings can keep playing hard on that end of the floor and will hopefully see a little more defense from Las Vegas than they showed against Washington last game.
END OF JUNE 22 PICKS
We fell to 13-9 in the WNBA in ugly fashion last night, as Washington took it to Las Vegas. The Aces got solid production from their starting big players, but when your two starting guard go a combined 1 for 15 from the field, you’re going to get waxed the majority of the time.
Atlanta at Connecticut: The Sun have won 12 straight home games and shouldn’t have any problem with Atlanta, who will be missing Alex Bentley, yet another player playing in the EuroBasket tournament in Serbia. The Sun opened as 14-point favorites and the line has dropped to 12.5 after Atlanta received three-quarters of the early wagers in the game. The total is at 153 and the Sun won a couple of weeks ago in Atlanta by a 65-59 final in what was one of the ugliest WNBA games we’ve seen this season. I have the Sun winning by 9 and Connecticut has been in the 80s in all five home games this season, where they’re 5-0 ATS on the year. Going to
Indiana at Chicago: The Sky are favored by 5 with a total of 163 and I have Chicago winning this one by an 83-80 margin, so not a whole lot to go on in this one. These teams played an ugly one a week ago, as Chicago came away with a 70-64 victory. Indiana started the season 3-1, but have gone 1-4 since then to fall below .500, which is where most people had them pegged before the season began. Don’t really like any of the three games on the slate today, but will give a shot to the under in this one.
Los Angeles at Seattle: The Sparks are favored by 1.5 on the road and the total has dropped to 155, as Seattle welcomes back coach Dan Hughes to the sidelines a month after having a tumor removed. The Storm is playing at home for just the third time this season and won the first two games in front of the home fans. The Sparks got Candice Parker back last game for the first time all season and she definitely looked rusty, hitting just one shot in nine attempts. I have LA winning by two, but no interest in playing this one.
END OF JUNE 21 PICKS
We moved to 13-8 in the WNBA last night and have a pair of games on the schedule for Thursday, one that leaves a little to be desired and one pretty good one between Washington at Las Vegas.
Phoenix at Dallas: The Mercury opened as 3.5-point favorites in this one with a total of 146.5 and Phoenix is now favored by 6 with a total of 147 and those numbers look to be pretty much settled in. The Mercury are getting 58% of the wagers and the over is getting 65% of the bets on the total so far.
Phoenix is still trying to hold the ship in place until Dian Turasi returns and it looks like it could be Sunday against the Los Angeles Sparks. Phoenix is just 2-4 in her absence, but a tough early-season schedule and missing the heart-and-soul of their team, meant it would be a tough start to the season by Phoenix. The Mercury’s two big players, Griner and Bonner, have doing their best to keep Phoenix in games and have been solid. The Mercury will also be without starting guard Yvonne Turner the next few games, as she left to represent Hungary in the EuroBasket tournament.
Dallas won its first game last time out, but they’ll be without Glory Johnson, who is also playing in the tournament, and Isabelle Harrison, who is out with a concussion. Just staying away from this one completely due to all the players who are out, as well as it’s difficult to tell if the Mercury will be fired up for the return of Taurasi or play a bit flat, knowing she’ll likely be back next game.
Washington at Las Vegas: The two favorites to win the WNBA title meet in Las Vegas tonight, as the Washington Mystics visit the Aces and Las Vegas has moved from -3 to -4.5 and the total has dropped from 170 to 165.
The Mystics are 1-3 in their last four games, while the Aces won back-to-back games for the first time all season and sit at 4-3 for the year. But Las Vegas has always been one of those teams who was expected to get better as the season went on, while the Mystics returned more of their core group of players.
The public is betting Washington in this one, yet the line climbed, and I’m inclined to take the Aces here in what is probably the biggest game for the second-year Las Vegas team so far. It should be a good one, but think Las Vegas will manage to get the job done.
END OF JUNE 20 PICKS
Going to go on a bit of a rant here, due to the fact that there was no line out on the 11 a.m. EST WNBA game at 10:10 a.m. Seriously? The sportsbooks spend a lot of money employing oddsmakers, staff, and have computer models most bettors can only dream of, yet you mean to tell me you can’t release a line 90 minutes before a game begins? Or even an hour before a game is played? Really, there’s no excuse for it and if they get a lot of one-sided action, it’s what they deserve, since they’re basically not allowing any time for any sort of buy-back against the initial moves.
Not about to post a play 20 minutes before a game begins, so we’ll essentially have to treat the late game as the only contest on the slate today.
Horrible performance by the Sparks last night, hitting just 28.8% of their field goal attempts. When you hold Elena Delle Donne to just nine points you expect to win, not lose by nearly 30 points, but we’ll take it, as we moved to 12-8 on the season.
Chicago at New York: The Liberty opened even with a total of 165 and now New York is favored by 2 after getting 56% of the early wagers in the game and the total has dropped to 164 with two-thirds of the wagers so far coming in on the under.
I made this one 84-83 for New York, so will go ahead and take a shot on the over in this one.
Chicago is looking to win four games in a row for the first time in three years, but now find themselves sitting a 4-2 for the season after missing the playoffs each of the past few seasons. Chicago is playing better defense over the past three games, but still not entirely sold on their stop unit. Two of those games were at home and the other was against an Indiana team that can struggle scoring at times. They’re other two road games saw them allow 89 and 103 points.
The Liberty have been playing better and are coming off an impressive 98-92 road victory at Los Angeles, one night after being drilled by Las Vegas. Tina Charles has struggled a little bit lately, but typically fares well against Chicago. Obviously, not a huge play based on the numbers, but will take a stab and see how it plays out.
END OF JUNE 19 PICKS
The usual late posting of lines in the WNBA today, which has become common over the past week or so. While it has been out for a little bit, wanted to wait until the numbers settled down a little bit, since the total dropped several points from the opening number.
We’re 11-8 so far this season, which is right around where we hope to finish for the season, at least from a percentage standpoint. Unders are still doing well this season, while home teams have also been getting the job done for the most part, as they are 26-18 straight-up and 29-13-2 against the spread, with home underdogs going a solid 13-3-1 ATS, while favorites of three points or less have also been solid, going 5-1-1 against the number so far.
One game on the slate today and it’s not a bad one, as the Washington Mystics visit the Los Angeles Sparks. The Sparks are favored by 1.5 and the total is down to 165.
The Mystics have dropped their last two games and are just 1-2 on the road this season.
The Sparks lost 98-92 to Chicago the last time they took the court and it was a disappointing showing for a team that takes a lot of pride in their defense. Los Angeles was playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation and had just thumped the Phoenix Mercury pretty good the night before, so a little bit of a letdown can be excused in that game.
Getting ready for this game shouldn’t be a problem for Los Angeles, but not really anxious to go against Washington on a losing streak, as the Mystics are too good to hit a prolonged skid and only once did they have a three-game losing streak last year.
I have this one 78-78, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under here, thinking the Sparks look to get back to playing defense and the Mystics shore things up a little bit on the defensive side of things after a pair of consecutive losses. The Sparks do have Seattle on tap, but shouldn’t be looking ahead in this one, while the Mystics have a date in Las Vegas up next.
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We’ve hit a bit of a slump the last few days, falling to 10-8 for the season after losing with the Mystics last night, as they were outscored 22-8 in the fourth quarter after outscoring Seattle in each of the first three quarters. Three games on tap for Saturday.
Chicago at Indiana: This could be an entertaining game, although it’s probably a stretch to call it a good one, as the Sky visit the Fever. Indiana opened as 3.5-point favorites and the line is still there even though Chicago is getting more than 60% of the early wagers in this game. The total is hovering in the 165 area, which is down a little bit from the opening number. I made Indiana an 86-85 winner in this one, although games with totals of 165 or greater are just 3-6 this season.
Atlanta at Dallas: Two struggling teams in this one, as Atlanta has dropped four straight since defeating Dallas in the season opener and the Wings haven’t won a game yet this season. The Dream opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line has climbed to 3.5 with a little more than 50% of the wagers coming in on the Dream. The total has dropped from 147 to 146 even though more than 60% of the early wagers have come in on the over. The teams played a 76-72 final in the first meeting of the year and I have this one at 161, but a little hesitant to get involved, as Atlanta is seeing a decrease in its scoring and is playing good defense, although those games have come at home and haven’t transpired to their away numbers. Since I can’t come up with anything else, will take another shot on the Wings in this one.
New York at Los Angeles: The Storm are favored by 13 after opening as 12-point favorites and getting 38% of the early wagers. The Liberty were thumped 100-65 by Vegas last night and WNBA teams playing with no rest have been the greatest of wagers, although when they’ve been waxed in the first game, they’ve been a lot better in the second game. The Sparks were also in action last night, winning in Phoenix, so a little bit of a letdown possibility. The trends in this one point to the dog and the over.
END OF JUNE 15 PICKS
Getting tougher in the WNBA, as lines are coming out a little bit later the past few days. We came up a point shy with the Dallas Wings on Thursday to fall to 10-7 for the season. The Wings showed a bit of heart in the fourth quarter, but came up short in the end.
Seattle at Washington: Revenge is a strange thing in the WNBA, as the players are all friends for the most part, but you have to believe the Mystics are going to be out for blood in this one, losing to Seattle in the WNBA Finals last year. The Mystics opened as 10.5-point favorites with a total of 162.5 and Washington is now 9 and 158 after the Storm received 70% of the wagers and 80% of the early bets have been on the under. I made this one 85-74 for the Mystics. Tough call, but will go ahead and take the Mystics, as this is a game they have be ready for and it is Seattle’s first trip to Washington’s new arena.
Connecticut at Minnesota: The Sun opened as 3.5-point favorites and are now up to -6 after getting 70% of the early wagers, while the total climbed a few points and is now at 152.5 after opening at 150 and seeing pretty decent two-way action. I have the Sun winning 79-76.
Los Angeles at Phoenix: Decent game here, as the Mercury are still without Taurasi, as the game opened even and now the Mercury are favored by 2.5 after getting three-fourths of the early wagers in the game. The total has moved from 158.5 to 159 even with the majority of the wagers landing on the under. I have the Mercury winning this one 84-81. Bonner and Griner are going to get their points, but the Sparks’ inside defense should be their strength, while Phoenix is struggling at guard and have allowed 46% shooting from 3-point range.
New York at Las Vegas: The Aces will be looking for quick payback here, as they lost in New York as prohibitive favorites last week and are in the same boat tonight, as they opened as 13.5-point favorites and the line is down to 11.5 after the Liberty received 60% of the early bets. I have the Aces winning this one 89-76, which is pretty close to the number and the total is holding right around 165.
END OF JUNE 14 PICKS
We moved to 10-6 on the WNBA season last night and now are faced with another one-game schedule, as the Indiana Fever visit the Dallas Wings. The line finally came out at Indiana -2 with a total of 153.5 and the numbers quickly moved to Fever -3 with a total of 150.5.
The teams have already met twice and the Fever were able to come away the victory each time, which makes sense as the Wings are still looking for their first victory of the season. Dallas has been without Skylar Diggins all season and could be without Arike Ogunbowale, who sprained an ankle in the second quarter of the team’s last game against Washington and things quickly went downhill from there. The status of Ogunbowale is also the key reason why this game has no line as of 11 a.m. EST, which is bad even for the WNBA.
Indiana brings a 3-3 record into this one and this is their first away game since May 28, as they’ve played the last four games at home, which surprisingly has been a profitable situation over the years, with away favorites going 16-5 straight-up and 12-9 ATS after having played their last four games at home.
But Indiana’s record may be a little deceiving, as the teams they’ve beaten includes New York and Dallas, who are a combined 2-8 on the season, although that’s still better than the Wings, who are 0-4. Still, the Fever aren’t a very good defensive team, as they’ve allowed 80 points or more in four of their six games, but the Wings are really struggling to score, having scored a high of 72 points through four games, which is pretty sad for a professional team.
The Wings are also in a slight positive situation regarding winless teams as home underdogs, but awfully tough to take Dallas right now, even though my numbers have them winning, but that’s likely due to the fact they’ve only had one home game so far this season, so not enough opportunities to see their home power rating drop.
I will probably regret this, but going to go ahead and Dallas a shot in this one. The Wings did pick-up a few decent players in the Cambage trade and they’re better than they’ve looked so far this season.
END OF JUNE 13 PICKS
We moved to 9-6 on the season in the WNBA last night, as the Sun were able to get the cover against the Mystics and now are back to the one game schedule, as the Minnesota Lynx visit the New York Liberty. The Lynx have moved from -3 to -3.5 and the total has climbed a few points from 153.5 to its current 156.5.
The Liberty come into this one off its first victory of the season and ended the third-longest losing streak in WNBA history. It was their first win since July 15 of last season. New York does have a few things going for them in this one, as home dogs continue to tear it up this season, going 6-6 straight-up and 9-2-1 against the spread. New York is 2-1-1 as a home dog this season and will travel to the West Coast next with a rematch against Las Vegas and a game against the Los Angeles Sparks.
New York played decent defense against the Aces, holding them to less than 36% from the field, but are still 3-2 in totals this season, making them one of the few teams to post more overs than unders, as all games are just 12-20-1, although the average total is dropping a little bit and is now 159.6, while the average score is 156.4.
The Lynx come into this one off a home loss to the Sparks, as they made 20 turnovers and were forced to play from behind most of the game. They were able to make it close, but you’re not going to win often when you give the opposition so many extra chances.
The Lynx are 2-4 in totals and have scored fewer than 80 points in each of their two away games, going 1-1 straight-up and in totals.
I have this one 79-75 for Minnesota, so obviously not much to go on in this one. The Lynx do have home games with Connecticut and Las Vegas on tap, so it would be easy to see them look past the Liberty a bot, but they did drop their last game, so not so sure how much of a letdown we’ll see.
Pretty much a toss-up in this one and there’s no first-half number posted right now, so will take a shot on the under in this one on the belief that Minnesota will try to do what they do best after a loss.
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We dropped to 8-6 in the WNBA on Sunday, as it’s always a season of ups and downs and a few streaks, both good and bad, but you can say the same for any sport. Decent schedule today, with the Mystics and Sun the marquee game for the evening.
Seattle at Indiana: Indiana opened as 2-point favorites and the line climbed to 2.5 after the Fever received 57% of the early wagers in the game. The total has dropped slightly from its opening of 157.5 down to 156.5 with pretty good two-way action on it. I made the Storm 83-81 winners, but want to see a little more on the road out of Seattle first, as the Storm have dropped a pair of road games at Chicago already this year.
Washington at Connecticut: Solid game here between the two powers of the East. The Sun opened as 2.5-point favorites and the line has climbed to 4.5 with Connecticut getting 46% of the wagers. The Sun defeated Washington here at Mohegan Sun Arena on opening night, although the Mystics were without Elena Delle Donne for that game. It was the only loss Washington has suffered this season, so it looks to be a revenge game, but the Sun also have just one loss this season and I have them winning 86-81. Going to take a shot on the Sun minus the points in this one.
Phoenix at Chicago: The Mercury just made a big move in the last few minutes from -2.5 to 4.5-point favorites and are getting close to 70% of the early wagers in this one. I made this one 85-83 for the Mercury, who have been getting solid efforts from their big two of Brittney Griner and DeWanna Bonner, who combined for 51 points in the team’s victory over Indiana last time out. The Mercury are trying to hold down the fort until Diana Turasi returns to the line-up and still looking for their first winning streak of the season, as they’ve alternated wins and losses so far this season. The Sky defeated Seattle twice at home so far this season and will look to go 3-0 at home for the first time since the 2014 season, and are coming off one of their better defensive efforts of the season last game.
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We have a big five-game schedule in the WNBA tonight, where we improved to 8-5 for the season on Saturday. While it would seem like things would be a little easier on days with large schedules, that’s not always the case, as we’ve probably fared a little better when forced to pick a side on those days with one game than we have on the days with a large number of games.
Dallas at Washington: The Mystics opened 14.5 and the line has held steady with the Wings getting 60% of the early wagers in this one. I made it 90-74 for Washington, but a couple of big trends in this one, as home favorites of 13 or more points are just 42% against the spread over the yer nd favorites of 14 or more have just gone 21-33-3 (38.9%) since 2011. If the underdog lost its last game by double digits, favorites are just 6-16-2, so will take a shot on the Wings +14.5 in this one, especially with Washington having a big road game at Connecticut on tap Tuesday.
Connecticut at Atlanta: The Dream’s opening day victory probably masked a few problems and people didn’t realize how much the team would miss Angel McCoughtry. Three straight double-digit defeats bring that to light and the Sun have moved from 4-point favorites to 5.5-point favorites in this one, while the total has climbed a few points to 160.5. I have the Sun winning 81-77.
Las Vegas at New York: The Aces opened as 9-point favorites and the line is now 10.5 after three-quarters of the wagers have come in on Las Vegas. The total has held steady at 162 on pretty decent two-way action. I have this one 88-78 for the Aces.
Phoenix at Indiana: The Mercury opened as 2.5-point favorites and the line is now down to Phoenix -1 after close to 80% of the early wagers have come in on Indiana. The Mercury are just trying to hold the fort down until Tuarsi returns. I have the Mercury winning this one by two, so no real advantage here on way or another.
Seattle at Chicago: The Sky opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line is still holding there even though Seattle has been getting bet pretty hard, with more than 80% of the early wagers on the storm. I have this one 83-81 for Seattle and with the total at 163, is a game I’ll just end up staying clear of.
END OF JUNE 9 PICKS
We fell to 7-5 in the WNBA after a two-game losing skid and now we have just one game on the slate, as the Los Angeles Sparks visit the Minnesota Lynx in what would have been the premier game in the league just a couple of seasons ago. It’s still a decent game and the veterans of each team will remember being knocked out by the other in the playoffs.
Going into this season, the Sparks were expected to be one of the contenders for the title, while the Lynx had fallen quite a bit, but Minnesota has played well this season and they’re being backed pretty heavy in this one. The Lynx opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line is now up to Minnesota -4 after 80% of the wagers have come in on the home team.
The Lynx are missing some star power from last year’s roster, but have gotten back to doing what they’ve done best in the past and that’s play defense, as they allow a league best 67.8 points per game and allow 41.4% shooting.
The Sparks are without Candace Parker once again, as she nurses a hamstring issue and the team definitely misses her, as they have yet to reach 80 points in a single game.
This is obviously a huge revenge game for the Lynx, as it was Los Angeles who knocked them out of the playoffs last season and that’s likely one reason behind the line move, although now it’s getting a bit too rich for my blood, as I have Minnesota winning this one by three.
The total on this one opened at 148.5 and is now 149 even though we’re seeing a few more under wagers than over bets.
Going to bite the bullet on this one and take a shot on the Sparks +4. Road underdogs who lost their previous game as a road underdog have been decent bets in the WNBA over the years, covering at a 54.8% clip and that climbs a little bit if the favorite is off a victory. The Sparks allowed 89 points at Connecticut last game and road underdogs who allowed 85 or more points their previous game have covered the spread at a 55.5% clip, so enough little trends in favor of Los Angeles, but overall a fairly tough game to handicap.
END OF JUNE 8 PICKS
We dropped to 7-4 for the season last night in ugly fashion, as neither Phoenix or Minnesota could do anything offensively and if you watched any of the game, it wasn’t necessarily due to great defense being played. But a loss is a loss, regardless of the margin, so we’ll look to see if we can’t do a little better today.
Dallas at Indiana: Indiana opened as 3.5-point favorites and the line has been boosted to 5.5 even though the Fever are just getting 52% of the wagers, so likely a few pretty good-sized wagers on the Fever, or more likely, against the Dallas Wings, who have labored without Cambage and Skylar Diggins-Smith. Still, not so sure Indiana is the team you want to be laying so many points with, although they have looked better this season, even if their two wins were against the winless New York Liberty.
The Wings are having problems scoring, although that’s to be expected when you’re without two of your big guns from the previous season, but this is one of those games you don’t really want to play, so I’ll just stay clear of this one.
Washington at New York: The Mystics opened as 9.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 8.5 after the Liberty received a little more than 50% of the early wagers in a bit of a surprise. The total has climbed a few points and is all the way at 166.5 and not so sure I agree with the line move on the total, as New York has a bit of a scoring problem. Sure, the Mystics got 100 points last game, but teams who scored at least 100 last game are just 45.7% over in their next game and the Liberty aren’t an offensively gifted team.
New York doesn’t have the talent to trade baskets with the Mystics, so have to believe they want to see a slower pace in this one. If there’s a lot of back-and-forth running, this one could ugly for New York in a hurry, so still the potential to see the bench players quite a bit in the second half.
Going to go ahead and take a shot at the under in this one and hope the Liberty don’t get caught up in playing Washington’s game.
END OF JUNE 7 PICKS
We moved to 7-3 last night in the WNBA and now we have a pretty solid three game slate on tap for Thursday night.
Las Vegas at Atlanta: The Aces opened as 3-point favorites and have been bet up to 3.5 after getting two-thirds of the early wagers in the game, while the total has climbed to 161. This is the type of game Las Vegas needs to win to establish themselves and why they’re the current favorite to win the WNBA title, but until they do, can’t really play the Aces in this spot. All three of the games tonight are pretty tough from a handicapping standpoint and this may well be the toughest to get a good read on, so will just stay away.
Los Angeles at Connecticut: The Sun opened as 5-point favorites and the line has climbed all the way to 6.5 with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the Sun. I have the Sun getting the cover, but not real thrilled with the line movement and the betting. The total has dropped a few points and is now 157.5 and I have it sneaking over the number, but no real interest in playing this one, as well, in a revenge game for the Sun, who lost 77-70 in Los Angeles the first meeting between the to teams.
Phoenix at Minnesota: The Lynx opened even and the game is now Minnesota -2 with the home team getting 60% of the early wagers. The total is also 157.5 and will go ahead and take a shot on the over in this one, which is really the lesser of evils in my opinion, as overall it’s a fairly tough card from a handicapping perspective. The Lynx aren’t playing the defense they’re known for, with the loss to Seattle just the fifth game the team has lost while shooting at least 50% from the field dating back to the 2011 season.
END OF JUNE 6 PICKS
Just a single game in the WNBA tonight, as the Chicago Sky visits the Washington Mystics. Washington is favored by 11.5, as Elena Delle Donne looks to stay undefeated against her former team after essentially forcing a trade to the Mystics a couple of years ago.
Washington is playing its second game in the team’s new arena, a 4,200-seat venue, which is probably ideal for the WNBA in that the Mystics will play in front of a packed house, even if the crowd is on the smaller side, which figures to be more of a home court advantage that playing in a half-full larger arena.
While the Mystics have plenty of experience playing in the new place, the visiting teams don’t, so that could be a little bit more of an advantage to Washington during the season.
Chicago is 1-1 on the season, losing its opening game 89-71 at Minnesota and then coming back with an 83-79 victory over Seattle at home. In the loss, Chicago shot 40% from the field and made just three 3-pointers. In the victory over the Storm, Chicago shot 51.4% from the field and made seven 3-pointers. Diamond Deshields, who missed all seven field goals in the opener, was 9 for 14 on her way to 21 points. Chicago did just attempt five free throws in the game, which is a bit of an indication they’re not getting the ball inside enough, and settling for too many outside shots.
Washington defeated Atlanta 96-75 last game and it would have been even uglier had the Mystics not called off the dogs in the fourth quarter when the Dream had a 26-17 scoring advantage. The Mystics had five players in double figures and shot 56% from the field against an Atlanta team that was playing the second of a back-to-back situation.
The Mystics are off until Friday, when they travel to winless New York, and with Chicago knocking off Seattle, this should be a game they’re focused for, although Chicago is 9-3 ATS as a double-digit dog the last two years.
The total has just dropped again and is now at 165.5 and I have it at 11 and 165, so definitely nothing to get excited about. Home favorites who won their last game by more than 20 points are 54-43-3 (55.7%) ATS over the years, while also going under a larger majority of the time.
Basically a toss-up, but will go to 5Dimes and play the first half over 81.
END OF JUNE 5 PICKS
A pair of games in the WNBA tonight, where we moved to 5-3 last time out.
Home teams continue to do well in the early going, checking into today’s action with a 12-4 straight-up and ATS record, while unders are 5-10-1.
Los Angeles at New York: The Sparks are favored by 5.5 and the total on the game has dropped a couple of points to 157.5. The Sparks are 1-1 on the season and coming off their first victory of the season at home against Connecticut on Friday and now have made the cross-county flight to New York for an early morning game that tips-off at 11 a.m. EST, so won’t spend much time on this one, as it’s too early for the majority of people who read the articles each day. Home dogs are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight-up so far this season.
Minnesota at Seattle: Pretty good game here, where the Storm are now favored by 1.5 over the undefeated Minnesota Lynx, while the total has climbed to 150.5 after opening a little bit lower. The Lynx have been a pleasant surprise so far this season and have gotten solid play from Sylvia Fowles, Napheesa Collier and Odyssey Sims, while playing the type of defense you associate with the Lynx. Minnesota is the lone remaining undefeated team in the league, but this won’t necessarily be an easy game for the Lynx, no matter how short-handed Seattle is.
The Storm won their opener at home and then went on the road for three games in four days and are now back home, where the exceptionally tough. The Storm did lose at Minnesota last week, so a quick revenge game for the home team, who is 2-2 on the season. Both teams have had a couple of days off, so rest shouldn’t be an issue. In the first meeting, the Lynx got off to a fast start, out-scoring Seattle 22-9 in the first quarter and the Storm was never in the game. Jewell Loyd was a dismal 5 for 21 from the field and the Storm made jut 2 of 15 3-point attempts. Seattle is a better shooting team than that and I have them winning this one by four points with a total of 155, so going to take a stab on the Storm in this one, as they should be ready to make amends from last week and are a solid team at home.
END OF JUNE 4 PICKS
We fell to 4-3 in the WNBA in ugly fashion Saturday, as neither Minnesota or Dallas could hit above 40% from the field. For Sunday, we’re back to the dreaded one-game schedule and no games are on tap for Monday.
The Las Vegas Aces are favored by 5.5 points and the total is 167.5. Both teams are coming off losses, with the Sun falling at Los Angeles 77-70 last time on the floor and Las Vegas dropping an 86-84 decision at Phoenix in a game that saw the Aces hit 50% from 3-point range, but just 39.5% from the field, while the Mercury finished at 50.8%.
The Aces attempted 13 more field goals than Phoenix and also more free throws, which is a bit as Vegas only had a 38-35 rebounding advantage and one fewer turnover. Las Vegas did have a decent advantage in offensive rebounds, which accounts for a little of that, but not quite to the extent we saw.
The Sun played good enough defense to defeat the Sparks, but were hurt by some woeful shooting, hitting just 30.8% from the field and then topped it off by going 16 of 25 at the foul line, while the Sparks were 15 of 17. The Sun did have a massive rebounding edge, but were unable to take advantage of it, as Los Angeles pulled away down the stretch after Connecticut made it a two-point game late in the fourth quarter.
Everybody knows Las Vegas has some solid players, but you do have to wonder how much they’re going to be over-priced this season, as this line is a bit on the high side against a solid Connecticut team. Jonquel Jones is looking like the player she was in 2017 instead of last season and gives the Sun a presence in the middle of their own, while they’re also solid at the guard position.
The early wagers in this one have been pretty well split, with the Aces getting a little more than 55% of the bets so far.
I have this one as a two-point game, so will go ahead and take a shot on the Sun under the belief that Las Vegas isn’t going to be a great spread team this season, as they’re a little too hyped right now, and this has all the makings of a game that could turn out to be a pretty decent one.
END OF JUNE 2 PICKS
Another good-sized slate of games for Saturday, although we’ll pay for it with just one game on Sunday and no games played on Monday. Home underdogs improved to 3-0 for the season on Friday, with both Phoenix and Los Angeles picking up victories.
New York at Indiana: The Fever defeated the Liberty in the season opener for both teams and now find themselves favored by 3.5 in this one over a New York team that has dropped 14 straight games. The Liberty have been off since that game and teams in that spot have some conflicting trends, no nothing really to go from that perspective. I have the Liberty winning by two, but a little tough to take a team that has been as bad as New York. The total is 158.5.
Atlanta at Washington: The Mystics are expected to be full strength tonight, meaning Delle Donne is likely to go, as they host the Atlanta Dream, who were thumped by Seattle at home last night. Had Washington not lost its opener this could be a good spot for the Dream, but no interest in going against the Mystics in this one, as they also open their new arena, so will just stay away. The total has held pretty steady in the 157 range.
Seattle at Chicago: Chicago is favored by 2.5 after opening -1.5 and another tough game, as this isn’t really one of the better cards from a handicapping perspective. I do have Seattle winning this one but not what you can call a great spot for the Storm, who are already a bit short-handed and now tasked with playing back-to-back games on the road. The total in this one is 158.
Minnesota at Dallas: The Lynx are favored by 3 after getting a large majority of the early wagers and the total has dipped slightly to 153.5. The Wings have just played one game, so it’s hard to know what to expect out of them, as they gave the Dream decent game in Atlanta but still fell 76-72 in a game Dallas only shot 35.1%. Away favorites who won their last two games at home are 40-46-2 against the spread, but also 50-38 in totals, which is 56.8%. Tough call here, but will go against the grain a little bit and take the over 153.5. The Wings played a decent tempo last time out, although they couldn’t hit much of anything and that could be a sign of them trying to play faster this season without Cambage.
END OF JUNE 1 PICKS
We’re 3-2 so far in the WNBA, something I enjoy handicapping and hope to do well in each season. Along with the CFL, probably two of my favorite sports to handicap, although making plays every day there is a game probably takes a bit of a toll on the overall record.
With WNBA odds being released so late, it is a bit of a challenge, as I like to get these articles out early, but also try to wait for the lines to settle down a little bit before making plays, as there’s nothing worse from my point of view than releasing a game and then seeing the line move and have those who follow end up with a loss, while my wager won.
Today, we have three games on the slate and a couple of pretty good ones.
Seattle at Atlanta: The Dream opened as 6-point favorites and the line is now up to 6.5, as bettors are hammering Atlanta pretty good. I have this game a bit closer, but no real interest in taking Seattle until we see another game or two. They can be excused a little bit for last game, as there was a bit of a letdown factor involved from their opening victory. Atlanta will also miss Angel McCoughtry this season, even though it didn’t really show in their opener.
Las Vegas at Phoenix: A decent game here and it would be even better in the Mercury were at full strength, but they are missing Tuarasi and as a result the Aces are favored by 1. Las Vegas looked good in their opener against Los Angeles, while the Mercury lost at Seattle. The total here is 161.5 and this is a tough one to make a stand on. The situation definitely favors Phoenix and if they were healthy, I’d definitely be on the Mercury, but as it stands, tough to take Phoenix here, but really want no part of what is sure to be an over-valued Las Vegas team this season.
Connecticut at Los Angeles: The Sparks are favored by 1.5 and the total is 165.5 in a game where the Sun is getting the majority of the wagers. Last year, the Sparks were a much different team at home and won with their defense, while the Sun were also lower-scoring on the road. Difficult to tell how much of that will carry forward to this season, but have to play the under in this one.
END OF MAY 31 PICKS
We moved to 2-2 on the WNBA season last night and it’s not always easy to do, since we do have plays every night there’s a game, even on nights like the last couple, where our numbers were pretty close to the lines and we were essentially taking educated guesses.
It’s more of the same tonight, as the defending WNBA champion Seattle Storm visit the Minnesota Lynx in a battle of two teams who are predicted to have down seasons from the past few years. The Lynx opened as 2-point favorites and the line is now Minnesota – 3, while the total on the game dropped several points, opening at 157 and is now down to 154.
The Storm opened the season with a home victory over Phoenix, getting big games from Natasha Howard, who had 21 points and 16 rebounds, while Jewell Loyd added 17. Jordin Canada added 16 for Seattle, who was down early by double digits before rallying to take the lead and the victory.
Seattle will again be without Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart for this one, although the Mercury were without Diana Turasi for the opening game.
The Lynx rolled to victory in their opener, defeating Chicago 89-71as Napheesa Collier scored and Sylvia Fowles added 16 points and 10 rebounds. Minnesota is without Maya Moore for the season.
Seattle was fired up for their home opener, where they received their championship rings, and were out to make a point that they shouldn’t be overlooked despite missing some major talent. The Lynx are in the same boat, so not sure either team can really use missing players as a rallying point, which was likely the case for both squads in their respective openers.
Another one of those games where I’d be likely to stay away from if it wasn’t the only game on the schedule, but it happens to be just that.
I think the Storm may have a bit of a letdown after rallying to defeat a decent Phoenix team in their opener and the Lynx are all too aware of the fact they didn’t get much respect in the preseason polls. Going to have to lay the points in this one and take Minnesota.
END OF MAY 29 PICKS
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