Last Updated: 2019-08-23
Definitely have hit a slump here in the WNBA, as I completely yakked last night, choosing Indiana over Minnesota on a card that I went back and forth on. Instead of at least using both games, I ended up choosing the wrong one, as we fell to a lackluster 30-25 on the season after running in the 60% range for much of the season. But a 2-7 run will do that to your winning percentage, so let’s see what we can come up with for today.
Atlanta at New York: The first game on the schedule is a pretty ugly one, as the Atlanta Dream visit the New York Liberty in a battle of cellar dwellers. The Dream have lost 12 straight games and the Liberty just snapped an 8-game losing skid last time they took to the court. New York won the first meeting of the year between the two teams, grabbing a 74-58 decision in Atlanta in a game that was as ugly as it sounds. Atlanta shot 27.1% from the field and it could have been a bigger margin of victory for New York, but the Liberty were just 9.1% from 3-point range in that one. I have Atlanta winning this one 82-77 and will go ahead and take the Dream plus the points in this one.
Las Vegas at Connecticut: The other early game promises to be a bit more interesting, as the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun battle it out in a game featuring two of the top three teams in the league. The game opened even and now the Sun are favored by 1.5 after getting 70% of the early wagers. The total has moved slightly from 160.5 to 161.5. The teams split the first two meetings of the year, both of which were played in Las Vegas and I have the Sun taking an 83-79 victory in this one.
Washington at Chicago: Another pretty good match-up in this one, as the Mystics visit Chicago in a game that sees Elena Delle Donne back in her old stomping grounds. She forced a trade out of Chicago after the 2016 season and the Mystics have gone 8-0 against Chicago since then. Washington is favored by 5.5 with a total of 173.5 in this one and I have the Mystics winning 88-85. Washington cruised to a 103-85 victory in Washington and won the rematch in Chicago 81-74 back in June.
END OF AUG. 23 PICKS
Just a pair of games on tap in the WNBA today and neither of them are all that exciting from a fan’s standpoint and we’ll look to use that to our advantage if possible tonight.
Since this is the first day in a while where we haven’t had a full slate of games, we have a chance to look at a few of the things that have developed so far this season, with special emphasis on this month, as scoring is still up at 161 points per game compared to 155.8 for the season, and totals are still rolling along, going 28-11-3, which is 71.8% overs. For the season, unders are still in front, with a 76-80-6 ledger.
Home underdogs have also cooled off considerably this month, going just 5-10, while going 34-23-1 for the season.
Dallas at Minnesota: The Lynx opened as 7.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 7, while the total has climbed a little bit after opening 145. It did reach 147.5, but now a few books have lowered it back to 147, but it should stay in that vicinity for the rest of the day. The Lynx come into this one off a loss at Los Angeles and Minnesota is 6-8 straight-up and 8-5-1 ATS after a loss, including a 5-2-1 ATS mark as a favorite. The Lynx lead both Dallas and Indiana by four games for the final playoff spot with seven games remaining and have covered both games as a favorite of 7 or more so far. The Wings are playing well and have covered four straight games, but are still just 1-12 straight-up and 6-7 ATS on the road. I have this one 80-70 for the Lynx.
Indiana at Los Angeles: The Sparks are favored by 10.5 in this one and the total is 157.5. Los Angeles is coming off its win over Minnesota and have gone 5-4 as a home favorite this season. The Fever are a bit of a slide, going just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight games and are pretty much down for as far as the playoffs go. Still, it’s a little improvement from a year ago. The Sparks won 90-84 last month in Indiana and I have them winning this one 80-70, so going to take a shot on the Fever +10.5 here. Los Angeles has a game with Connecticut on tap, so this isn’t the greatest of spots for Los Angeles.
END OF AUG. 22 PICKS
We’ve hit a bit of a slump in the WNBA, dropping three straight, compounded by each one coming down to the final minute, only to get the loss in the end. Looking to get back on track, as we have four games on the slate today. We fell to 29-24 for the season.
New York at Indiana: The Fever opened -5.5 and the line is down to Indiana -5, as the New York Liberty are in the middle of a freefall, much like occurred last season. New York was 7-7 at one point this season and had earned road wins over Phoenix and LA, but have dropped 11 of 12 to fall to 8-18 last time out. The Fever are coming off a 39-point thumping at the hands of the Mystics and home favorites off a 30-point loss or greater have gone 7-6 straight-up and 6-7 ATS. I have Indiana winning 84-78.
Chicago at Atlanta: The Sky opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has now hit Chicago-6 with more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the home team. The total has moved from 159.5 to 162 in this one, which I have 80-80, although home dogs on lengthy losing streaks haven’t been great wagers over the years, with home underdogs who have lost at least seven straight going just 11-16-1 against the spread and the Dream are in the midst of an 11-game slide. Chicago has won both games played between the two this season.
Phoenix at Las Vegas: Brittney Griner will be back for the Mercury and the Aces welcomed back A’ja Wilson last game, so the two teams will be close to full strength when they meet in Las Vegas tonight. Even though Phoenix guard Diana Turasi has been medically cleared to return, she’s looking at Sunday return date after missing all but one game for the Mercury this season. Phoenix won the first meeting between the two teams, although that was early in the season back in May. The Aces are favored by 8.5 with a total of 158.5 in this one and I have Las Vegas coming away with an 84-77 victory in what could be a decent game.
Minnesota at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened 6 and the line is down to 5.5, while the total has moved from 154 to 155.5. Both teams have lost two in a row entering this one and both haven’t played the defense they’re known for in those two games. I have this one 75-70 for Los Angeles and hate to take an under in the middle of this scoring increase, but have to believe both teams will look to make some defensive amends in this one and will take a shot on the under.
END OF AUG. 20 PICKS
A five-game slate in the WNBA today, which I’ve never really liked, as I’d much prefer to see a couple of games per day, but nothing we can do about it.
Indiana at Washington: The Mystics clinched a playoff spot last game and now host the Indiana Fever, who are three games behind the Mercury for the final playoff spot. The Mystics have won a pair of high scoring games so far this season and come into this one favored by 13 with a total of 166, while I have it lower-scoring at 85-71 for Washington.
Dallas at Connecticut: The Sun are favored by 11 and the total here is 149.5, making it the lowest total Connecticut has played to at home this season. Despite looking to become the second team to clinch a playoff spot this season, the Sun have dropped their lone game against the Wings this season, falling 74-73 in Dallas, so a bit of a revenge game in this one. Strangely, neither team scored in the final 1:23 of the game. The one negative is that Connecticut is coming off a hard-fought one-point win against Seattle and has Las Vegas on tap. The loss in Dallas should erase a bit of the flat spot and I have the Sun winning 87-69. Going to go ahead and take the over in this one, as I think the Sun will put forth a decent effort in a revenge spot.
New York at Phoenix: The Mercury are favored by 5.5 with a total of 156 in this one and it is the last game before the team gets back Brittany Griner from her three-game suspension. I have the Mercury winning this one 85-73, but Griner is worth a bit. The Liberty did come into Phoenix and win the only game played between the two teams this season.
Las Vegas at Chicago: This one is shaping up to be a pretty good game, as the Aces are favored by 1 with a total of 166 and I have Las Vegas winning this one 84-83. Games with extremely high totals of 165 and higher are just 3-8 this season, but hard to take the under with these two teams.
Minnesota at Seattle: The Storm are favored by 2.5 with a total of 149.5, while I have the Lynx winning 75-71 in this one. Seattle has won two of the three meetings between the two teams this season, including last game that was played in Minnesota.
END OF AUG. 18 PICKS
Another loss with an under on Tuesday, as the Lynx had a few too many trips to the foul line and the game went over the total in the final minute of play. When a WNBA team attempts 26 or free throws, totals have gone 439-212-6 (67.4%) over the years. Ten of the 27 games in which a team has shot at least 26 foul shots have occurred in August, so you have to wonder if the league asked officials to be a little more whistle happy and help get the scores up.
Three games on today’s slate, where we fell to 29-22 against the spread last night.
Los Angeles at Dallas: The Sparks have won five straight, although the last four of those came at home, and now travel to face a short-handed Dallas team after Kayla Thornton and Kristine Anigwe received suspensions from the league after last game’s altercation in Phoenix. The Wings have played the Sparks tough this year, winning at home and losing in a covering effort at LA, after leading by 10 at halftime. The Sparks are favored by 6.5 with a total of 147, while I have this one 77-77, although that doesn’t account for the missing players.
Seattle at Washington: The Mystics are favored by 10 with a total of 161 and I have Washington winning 84-74. After being upset at home by Seattle in the first meeting between the two, Washington took out some frustrations against the Storm with a 99-79 win a few weeks ago. Washington did leave its starters in the game a little more than was necessary in that one, with Delle Donne not coming out until there was 1:35 remaining, which probably isn’t the smartest thing to do with your franchise player who has battled some injuries.
Connecticut at Phoenix: While the Wings are missing a couple of players as a result of the fight against Phoenix, the Mercury will be missing the league’s leading scorer in this one, as Brittney Griner will be sitting out for this ESPN2 contest. Griner is also 12th in rebounding. The Mercury have lost both games to the Sun already this season, although both games were played in Connecticut. As a result of Griner’s absence, the Sun have moved from -4.5 to -6 and I’m going to take the home dog in this one. DeWanna Bonner and Leilani Mitchell are both capable of picking up some of the slack and if there’s a game the Mercury are going to rally together, it could very well be this one.
END OF AUG. 14 PICKS
A pair of games in the WNBA tonight after an off day yesterday, although neither of them are too enticing from a fan’s perspective, as a couple of the bottom feeders are in action. We’re at 29-21 through our first 50 games, so hoping to keep that up down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Minnesota at New York: The Lynx opened -5.5 with a total of 158.5 and both the spread and the total have remained consistent. I have this one 80-71 for Minnesota, who is 1-1 against the Liberty so far this season, with the home team winning each game.
One thing Minnesota has done well this season is bounce back from a subpar defensive effort, going 6-1-1 ATS after allowing 80 or more and they allowed over 100 last game, so you have to expect a better effort here, although a date with Washington is on tap and it was the Mystics who defeated Minnesota 101-78 last game, so probably not the greatest of spots for the Lynx. Minnesota is just 3-4 straight-up and 2-5 ATS as an away favorite, while New York is 4-3-1 as a home dog this season. The Lynx are 1-4 when the total is greater than 157 and have to think they look to make some defensive amends after last game, so will take a shot on the under 158.5 in this one.
Atlanta at Las Vegas: The Aces opened as 12.5-point favorites and are still there, while the total has climbed from its opening 151 to 153. Las Vegas has played well in games that are predicted to be low-scoring, going 4-1 straight-up and against the number when the total is 155 or less, while the Dream have gone 9-7 ATS, but just 4-12 straight-up, with most of those covers coming early in the season. Atlanta is 3-4 their last seven games as a dog with a total that low.
The Aces are coming off a decent win against Connecticut and have Chicago up next and the Sky upset Vegas at home two games ago, so you can’t blame the Aces for looking ahead a little bit. Vegas is 3-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite, while the Dream has posted a 6-4 ATS mark as an away underdog. I have this one 84-77 for Las Vegas, so the numbers like Atlanta and the over, and I’d lean that way, but most likely won’t get involved.
END OF AUG. 13 PICKS
Four games in the WNBA today, with several mid-afternoon games and a couple of early evening games. Oddsmakers were a bit late posting the numbers, as has been the case all season.
Minnesota at Washington: The Mystics opened as 9-point favorites with a total of 162 and the line is currently Washington -9 and 160.5. I have this one 80-71 in favor of Washington, so a strong lean to the under here, but the Mystics are on a 10-3-1 totals run. The Lynx can play good defense, but their two worst defensive efforts of the season came after big defensive efforts, so just going to stay away from this one. Games with totals of 160 or higher have gone 10-3 since the start of July.
Seattle at New York: The Storm are favored by 4 in this one and the total is 155.5, while I have Seattle winning this one 83-75. Even though home underdogs have cooled down as of late, no interest in taking a road favorite in this spot, as away favorites off a home win are just 7-13-1 for the season.
Chicago at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened as 6-point favorites in this one and the line just dropped to 5.5 after the Sky has been receiving close to two-thirds of the early wagers in this one. The total opened at 163.5 and has stayed there throughout the morning with 56% of the wagers coming in on the under. I was expecting the total to be a little bit lower and I have this one 86-76 in favor of Los Angeles.
Connecticut at Las Vegas: The Aces will again be without A’ja Wilson and that hurt them in their loss to Chicago, but what really hurt Las Vegas was Chicago’s Stefanie Dolson, as the Aces shot 32% when the Sky’s big player was in the game and over 50% when she was on the bench. Jonquel Jones doesn’t have the same physical impact of Dolson and have to expect a better effort out of the Aces in this ESPN2 game. I have this one 85-80 for Las Vegas and lean to the over, but the problem is Connecticut’s road output is nothing like it is when they’re at home. For the season, the Sun are averaging nearly 10 fewer points per game away from home. Connecticut is 1-2-1 on the road when the total is 160 or higher and one of those unders came here in June when they defeated Las Vegas 80-74. The total then was 168, and it’s now 161, so going to take a shot on the over 161 in this one.
END OF AUG. 11 PICKS
No official plays today, as lines aren’t out, but we’ll take a look at the two games on the schedule, and we’ve had our second three-game skid in the WNBA to fall to 28-21 for the season. The last one was a little painful, as it came down to the final 20 seconds, but that’s how things go in the WNBA at times; just one of those sequences where a team makes a dumb foul or two in the final minute and the final outcome doesn’t go your way.
One thing we’ve seen so far in August is a huge increase in scoring, as teams are averaging 79.8 points per game compared to 77.3 for the season. Likewise July was a low-scoring month, as teams averaged just 76.2 points per game. No surprise a few of the games in our recent skid have been under plays, as overs are 11-4-2 so far this month. It remains to be seen if that trend is going to continue, but it has been a good start to August for over bettors.
Atlanta at Indiana: The Dream visit the Fever in an early start for Saturday in what is by all practical purposes a pretty ugly game. The Dream are 5-18, worst in the league and have lost eight straight, and have only covered twice in that time frame. One of those losses was a 61-59 loss at Indiana 10 days ago, where they did get the cover as 5-point underdogs and the game easily went under the total. Have to expect the line to be about the same today, although it wouldn’t be a shock to see the total drop slightly from the 152 it was for that contest. I have Atlanta winning this one 79-77, so would give the Dream plus the points a look, but not sure if I’d be able to pull the trigger on the game.
Dallas at Phoenix: Dallas’ road woes are a bit of a mystery, as the Wings are 0-11 straight-up, 4-7 ATS and have gone 2-9 in totals when out of the Lonestar State and 6-6 straight-up, 7-5 ATS at home. They have gone 2-8-2 in totals at home, so they’ve seen pretty consistent in regards to not being able to score at either location. The Wings average 72.8 points at home, but just 65.5 on the road, where they allow 78.4 compared to allowing 71.3 points in front of the home fans. The Mercury have been a disappointment this season, going 11-11 straight-up, although they’ve been better at home this season, where they are 7-2 straight-up and 5-4 against the number. Phoenix is outscoring foes 81.7 to 75.1 when they play in the Valley of the Sun. I have the Mercury winning this one 83-69 and you have to believe they’ll be favored by 7 to 8 points (they were favored by 7 on July 17 in a non-covering win). Would likely look at the home team here.
END OF AUG. 10 PICKS
A two-game slide in the WNBA, which has knocked us down to 28-20 on the season, as we saw the ups-and-downs of WNBA betting yesterday. After a high-scoring first half, the under 164 didn’t look too good at all, but a 28-point third quarter made it 60-59 entering the fourth quarter, only to see a record-breaking fourth quarter, with Chicago outscoring New York 42-32.
Three games on today’s slate and once again, oddsmakers have been a bit slow on the draw, releasing the lines at 10:30 a.m.
Indiana at Washington: The Mystics opened up as 13-point favorites and the line dropped to 12.5 pretty quickly, while the total opened at 166.5 and dropped to 165.5. I made this one 83-72 for the Mystics, who return home after a brief two-game road trip. The Fever don’t always play the greatest of defense on the road, but they are 7-6 straight-up when they hold the opposition to fewer than 80 points. The total is pretty high in this one and have to think Indiana won’t try to get involved in a high-scoring contest, so will take a shot on the under.
Phoenix at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened 6 with a total of 151 and the Sparks are still favored by 6 with the total climbing to 152.5. Part of that move may have to do with the Mercury scoring 103 points against the Mystics last time out, although teams off a 100-point effort are just 62-72 in totals the next time they take the court. The Sparks are 5-4 in home totals this season, allowing 75.6 points per game and have only allowed 80 or more points three times this year. Phoenix is just 3-9 in away totals and have dropped four of their last five away from home. Would probably lean to the under if I had to play this one.
Dallas at Seattle: The Storm opened as 8-point favorites and the total was 146.5, while Seattle is now up to 8.5 and the total has climbed slightly to 148. The Wings have been pretty dismal on the road this season, going 0-10 straight-up and 4-6 against the number. Lack of offense has hurt Dallas, who is just scoring 66.3 points on the road, which is why they’ve gone 2-8 in away totals. The Storm are 8-4 at home and 6-5-1 against the spread, while going 5-7 in totals. The Storm’s last game at home was their worst, losing 99-79 to the Mystics.
END OF AUG. 8 PICKS
A brutal fourth quarter from the Atlanta Dream sent us to a loss last night, dropping our WNBA record to 28-19 for the season and once again we’re faced with just a single game tonight, as the New York Liberty visits the Chicago Sky. Chicago opened as 8.5-point favorites and the line dropped to 7.5 pretty quickly, while the total came out at 164.
The Sky have won each of the first two meetings between the teams, taking a 91-83 road victory in the first game between the two. That final may have been a little misleading, as 12 points were scored in the final 38 seconds, as the Liberty were fouling trying to get back into the game and the fourth quarter saw a total of 57 points scored. Chicago attempted 20 foul shots in the game and also hit better than 50% from the field. The Liberty weren’t that great from the field, but did hit 10 of 22 from 3-point range to keep this one close.
The Liberty left its defense at home in the rematch, as the Sky shot 54.3% from the field and scored at least 24 points in each of the first three quarters on their way to a 99-83 victory. The Sky attempted 24 foul shots, while New York went to the line 25 times in one of just three games this season that has seen both teams attempt at least 24 foul shots. Over the years, those games have seen the total go over 78% of the time, so it’s no surprise to see such a low-scoring game last time.
This is a tough game to call, as I have Chicago winning 87-76, so going to take a stab on the under in this one. The Liberty have seen that they’re not going to be able to outscore Chicago, so expecting them to try and keep the game a little lower-scoring than the first two. While the first two games went over the total, think this one will be a little different, as if there’s one thing WNBA coaches can do it’s change the style of the game a little bit and it’s seldom that you see a similar type of game three times in a row between teams in the same season.
Chicago is playing well and they’re playing better defense at home, where they are on a 1-4-1 totals run, so think the under has a chance.
END OF AUG. 7 PICKS
Just a single game in the WNBA tonight, where we moved to 28-18 last time out, as the Minnesota Lynx visit the Atlanta Dream. The Lynx opened as 4-point favorites and the total has moved from 147.5 to 146.
The Lynx are likely to get the majority of the wagers in this one, especially after the Dream were just thumped 87-75 at home by Indiana. But Minnesota is struggling almost as much and have dropped four straight and five of their last six, including a 60-53 decision at Atlanta. The Lynx did win the first meeting of the year between the two teams, taking an 85-68 home victory back on July 2.
Home underdogs have cooled off quite a bit on the last couple of weeks, going 2-7 ATS over their last nine attempts, but are still 31-17-1 on the season. Home underdogs of four or more points are 16-11-1 on the season, so they’re not quite performing as well as home underdogs overall, but are still doing pretty well.
The Dream have lost seven straight games and home underdogs who have dropped seven or more contests are just 11-15-1 against the number over the years.
One key to this game is how the Lynx are going to rebound from a demoralizing loss against the Fever last time, as Minnesota led by as much as 20 points in the first half and were able to just muster 27 points in the second half after scoring 23 and 25 in each of the first two quarters. The Lynx had seven players with at least two turnovers and finished with 21 for the game, while the Fever finished with 14.
The first meeting between the two say Minnesota leading 38-34 at halftime, only to have a 28-16 third quarter and essentially put the game out of reach. Stephanie Talbot was 5 of 9 from 3-point range in that one and the Lynx were 7 for 16 as a team.
The rematch was ugly, as Atlanta outscored the Lynx 23-21 in the second half, with both teams shooting 35% or lower in the contest. Atlanta was just 4 of 25 in 3-point shots, while Minnesota wasn’t much better at 3 for 12. The Dream did hold a slight rebounding advantage and attempted six more field goals, along with six more free throws, which turned out to be the difference in the final outcome.
The Lynx are 4-6 straight-up and ATS on the road, while the Dream are 4-8 straight-up and against the number at home, including 4-5 ATS as a home dog.
My numbers have the Dream pulling out the win, so will go ahead and take a shot on Atlanta +4.
END OF AUG. 6 PICKS
Three games on the slate in the WNBA for Sunday, where we moved to 27-18 for the season on Saturday. A couple of decent ones on the schedule with all of them late afternoon or early evening games.
Connecticut at New York: The Sun opened as 5.5-point favorites and this one hasn’t moved despite Connecticut getting more than 60% of the early wagers in the game. The total has held at 158.5 with pretty decent two-way action there. I have the Sun winning this one 83-79 and they had a bit of a rough time with New York in the first meeting of the year, winning 70-63 as 9.5-point favorites. This is the first of a four-game road trip for the Sun, who are coming off a tough win against Phoenix and have Minnesota and Las Vegas up next, so probably not the greatest of spots for the team.
Seattle at Los Angeles: The Sparks opened 6.5 and the line has dropped to 5.5 with the betting being pretty split on this one, while the total has dropped slightly from 152.5 to 151.5 with close to two-thirds of the wagers landing on the under. I have the Sparks winning this one by a 77-72 score. The home team has won each of the first two meetings between the two, with the Sparks winning by 7 at home in May and Seattle returning the favor with an 84-62 drubbing of Los Angeles in June. The Sparks are coming off a big win against Las Vegas and have Phoenix up next, but this is also a big game and don’t see any letdown or look-ahead situation, which could occur a little later down the road when they host the Sky in a week.
Washington at Phoenix: The Mystics opened as 5.5-point favorites and are now favored by 6.5 after getting a slight majority of the wagers. The total is at 160 after opening at 160.5 and seeing the betting pretty much split down the middle. The Mercury have been a home dog twice this season and have won outright both times, defeating the Aces by two and knocking off the Sparks by 10. The Mystics defeated the Mercury at home 99-93 on Tuesday and then went to Seattle and finally got a win against the Storm, so not the ideal spot for Washington. The Mercury can match Washington on the inside and I have this one 82-80 for Washington so will take a stab on Phoenix +6.5.
END OF AUG. 4 PICKS
Three games in the WNBA, where we fell to 26-18 last night, as the Mystics ran all over the Storm. It was also the fourth straight loss for home underdogs, who are 29-14-1 on the season and we have road favorites in all three games today.
Minnesota at Indiana: The Lynx opened -1 and are now favored by 3 after getting more than 80% of the early wagers in the game, while the total has moved from 153.5 to 151 with more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the under. The Fever snapped a losing streak last time out, defeating the Dream 61-59 in a game that was as ugly as the final score indicates. The Lynx won here earlier this season by a 78-74 final, in a game that the Fever really struggled from the field at 38.7%. The Lynx shot just below 47% in the contest and both teams were a bit sloppy with 17 turnovers. I have the Fever winning 82-77 and am going to go against the line move and take the over 151, as Indiana is 4-0 in totals after scoring less than 70 points and we should see a few more shot attempts if the teams don’t turn the ball over so much.
Chicago at Atlanta: The Sky opened -3 and the number moved to 4 with the betting pretty well split and I have the Dream winning 81-77, as they have shown a tendency to play hard at home, especially on the defensive side of things. Part of that is due to Atlanta being a pretty dismal offensive team. Chicago won the first meeting between the two teams 77-76 in Chicago.
Las Vegas at Dallas: The Aces opened as 7-point favorites and the line dropped to Las Vegas -5.5 after the Wings received a little more than 70% of the early wagers in the game. I have the Aces winning 80-76, while the total has dropped all the way to 148 with more than 75% of the bets on the under. The Aces thumped Dallas twice in Las Vegas, scoring 86 points each time and allowing 68 and 54. Las Vegas led by 15 points at halftime in each of those games, so Dallas needs a better start here.
END OF AUG. 3 PICKS
Just one game tonight in the WNBA, as the Washington Mystics visit the Seattle Storm in a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals, where the Storm swept the Mystics on their way to the title. So it goes without saying that this is a revenge game for Washington, although the same could be said for the first meeting of the year between the two and the Storm came away with a 74-71 road victory as 9-point underdogs.
You have to give credit to Seattle this season, as the Storm are 12-9 and missing Breanna Stewart, one of the top three players in the league, as well as Sue Bird. Seattle is also alternating between two home courts this year and seeing their coach miss some time due to health issues, so it’s been a successful season so far.
Being without some offensive firepower has seen Seattle get back to basics and that begins with playing defense and the Storm have only allowed 80 or more points five times this season and have held eight teams below 70 points on the year.
Seattle’s defense will have to be at their best, however, as Washington is leading the league in scoring and have scored 90 or more points in three of their last four games.
The Mystics opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has been bet up to 5, with Washington attracting 75% of the early wagers, while the total is at 159. Since I have Washington winning 82-77, we’re right on the number with both the side and the total, but will go ahead and take a shot on the under 159 in this one, as have to believe the Storm will try to keep the game in the 70s, which is really their best chance at pulling off the upset once again.
There are some trends that point both directions, while the majority of the total trends are pointing towards the over, but it’s not really enough to alter my opinion on this one. The Mystics were in action earlier this week, while the Storm are making their first appearance on the court since before the All-Star break, so Seattle may show a little rust and have to hope if that’s the case it’s on the offensive side, as defense is something that should stay with a team even during a bit of a break.
END OF AUG. 2 PICKS
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