Vegas Knows… Or Does It?

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This is something that really gets under my skin and I’m going to use some of this platform to vent. I see many people using the phrase “Vegas says” or “Vegas got that line right” on social media and often times on television as well. Let me be clear. Vegas doesn’t say anything, or at least is not the first to say anything, and they haven’t been since the advent of offshore bookmaking operations.

It certainly does sound impressive from a marketing standpoint or to boost ratings, but it just isn’t true. It was at one time, but that time has long since been over. As testimony to that, there was a company (Las Vegas Sports Consultants) that in fact did get paid for their information by the Last Vegas sports books. However, that’s no longer the case. In fact, some of the principals for LVCS have gone on to actually sell picks.

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What happens in today’s world is that one or two of the offshore books, typically Pinnacle and Bookmaker, will open a line. Then, after the line has been attacked by sharp bettors, and only then, will Las Vegas books hang a number. Now, in fairness BetOnline actually does open sooner, but they’ll adjust as soon as the other offshore books open. Also in fairness, Circa Sports has started opening early. However, that’s the huge exception to the rule.

In fact, most Las Vegas sports books don’t post College Basketball totals until the next day! They know that’s one of the biggest areas of potential exposure and they’re just not going to leave themselves open, period. And as many of you know most books either limit or ban successful bettors anyhow! Most professional gamblers now spend more time trying to get enough money down to make it worthwhile as opposed to actually handicapping games.

Going back to the beginning, again, “Vegas” doesn’t say much at all. Yes, there are some very well respected opinions in Las Vegas, but they don’t drive the market. So when I hear those phrases being thrown around, especially by people that know this, it’s like fingernails on a chalkboard to me.

On another note, I would not be surprised if DePaul doesn’t give Marquette more than they want on Wednesday night, and thanks as always for reading.

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