Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee College Football Betting Pick 11/30/19


The Vanderbilt Commodores (+22) are set to face off against their conference foe Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. SEC Network will broadcast the action and the game’s scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET.

Vanderbilt at Tennessee Betting Odds 11/30/2019

Tennessee is the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 22 points to Vanderbilt. The over/under is set at 45.5 points. It appears that there will likely be some good live betting possibilities for this game.

The game’s opening line was -20. The over/under hasn’t changed after it was initially posted at 45.5.

The Commodores are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 1-6 SU against SEC opponents. The Volunteers are 6-5 SU overall and 4-3 SU in conference play. The underwhelming Commodores are down 13.0 units so far in 2019 and 1-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-6.

The Volunteers have gained 3.9 units this season. The team is 7-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-7.

The Commodores are coming off a resounding 38-0 victory over ETSU last week. The D did its part in the win, holding the Buccaneers to just 68 passing yards and 37 yards on the ground. Jacob Saylors had a productive day for the Buccaneers in that one with 51 rushing yards on 14 attempts. On the offensive side, Riley Neal completed 16 passes for only 179 yards and two touchdowns. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (139 rushing yards on 14 attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack. Kalija Lipscomb (six receptions, 75 yards) and Jared Pinkney (five catches, 76 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Tennessee just put together a 24-20 win over Missouri. The allowed the Tigers to put up 181 passing yards and 99 rushing yards. Tyler Badie had a productive showing in the loss for Missouri, recording 35 rushing yards on nine attempts, along with 22 yards and two touchdowns on two catches. For Tennessee, Jarrett Guarantano completed 23-of-40 passes for 415 yards and two touchdowns. Tim Jordan (74 rushing yards on 14 attempts) handled the running attack while Marquez Callaway (six receptions, 110 yards, one TD) and Josh Palmer (six catches, 124 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Vanderbilt has run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tennessee has a rush percentage of 55.5 percent. The Commodores have rushed for 126 yards per game (including 106 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Vols are logging 131 rush yards per contest (113 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Vols may be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has allowed only 20 sacks while the D-line has registered 27 sacks. The Commodores offensive line has allowed 25 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 20 occasions.

The Commodores have averaged 172 yards in the air overall (135 per game against conference opposition) and have nine passing TDs so far. The Vols have recorded 229 pass yards per game (241.0 in the SEC) and have 18 total pass scores.

Vanderbilt has allowed opponents to run for an average of 201 yards and pass for 238 yards per game. Tennessee has been significantly better than that, giving up 149.1 rushing yards per game and 193.3 to opponents in the air. The Vols are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.78 to opposing QBs, while the Commodores have allowed an 8.22 ANY/A.

Neal is up to 1,372 passing yards this year, and has connected on 125-of-210 attempts with eight passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Neal’s got a 5.54 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.29 over the last two games.

We expect the Vanderbilt offense to mix it up in this one. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Kalija Lipscomb and Jared Pinkney have combined for 403 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

In the home locker room, Jarrett Guarantano has tallied 1,702 yards, 13 TDs and five INTs. Guarantano’s ANY/A stands at 7.71 for the year and 11.84 over his last two games.

We expect Guarantano to distribute the football early and often in this one. Marquez Callaway (494 receiving yards and five receiving TDs this season), Josh Palmer (334 receiving yards), and Jauan Jennings (837 receiving yards, eight TDs) have collectively recorded 556 receiving yards and four TDs over the last couple of games.

When these two teams faced one another last year, Vanderbilt won easily 38-13.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Tennessee Volunteers Free Prediction

SU Winner – Tennessee, ATS Winner – Vanderbilt, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

Tennessee has lost seven fumbles this season while Vanderbilt has lost three.

The Tennessee defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 27 times this season. Vanderbilt has registered just 20 sacks.

Vanderbilt has produced 3.9 yards per carry over its past three games and 5.9 over its last two.

Tennessee has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.7 over its past two.

In its last three matches, Tennessee is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Tennessee’s last outing was set at 47.5. The under cashed in that 24-20 win over Missouri.