Utah State at No. 5 LSU College Football Betting Pick 10/5/19


The No. 5 Tigers of LSU (-26) are set to welcome the Utah State Aggies to Tiger Stadium. This pivotal daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to SEC Network.

Utah State vs. No. 5 LSU Betting Odds 10/5/2019

LSU has been tabbed as heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 26 points to Utah State. If the Tigers fall behind early it will generate a nice live betting opportunity. The over/under has been set at 70.5 points.

The line opened at -24 but has recently moved down to -26. The game’s O/U has not moved after it was set initially at 70.5.

The Aggies are 3-1 straight up (SU) while the Tigers are 4-0 SU. The Aggies have gained 0.0 units this season and are 3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 2-2.

The Tigers are up 1.0 unit so far. They’re 3-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-0.

The Aggies continue to ride high after a 34-24 victory over Colorado State last week. Jordan Love completed only 17 passes on 33 attempts for 204 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Gerold Bright (179 yards on 36 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Love (44 yards on 11 carries) mounted the running attack in the win. Savon Scarver (three receptions, 14 yards) and Caleb Repp (three catches, 60 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.

LSU is coming off of a 66-38 win over Vanderbilt. The defense let the Commodores rush for 145 yards on 34 attempts, including two rush TDs. Ke’Shawn Vaughn torched the defense, putting up 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 attempts for Vanderbilt. For LSU, Joe Burrow completed 25-of-34 passes for 398 yards and six touchdowns. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (106 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) and John Emery Jr. (51 yards on nine carries, one TD) handled the ground game in the win as Ja’Marr Chase (10 receptions, 229 yards, four TDs) and Racey McMath (five catches, 48 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps.

In terms of offensive play selection, each of these squads has a nearly identical (47-53) run-pass ratio on the season. The Aggies have produced 207 rush yards per game and have seven touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Tigers are totaling 132 rushing yards per contest and have 11 total rush TDs.

Based on the early season results, it seems like the Aggies might hold an edge when it comes to RB efficiency. Their backfield has produced 5.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 2.7 YPC to opponents. The Tigers have ran for 4.0 yards per carry and allowed 2.9 YPC to opponents.

The Aggies have averaged 326 yards in the air overall and have eight passing scores so far. The Tigers have produced a ridiculous 432 pass yards per outing and have 17 total pass TDs.

Utah State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 114 yards and throw for 264 yards per game. LSU has been a bit better than that, giving up 96.5 rushing yards per game and 223.5 to opposing teams in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Aggies have given up an ANY/A of 6.06 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers are yielding an ANY/A of 5.82.

Burrow has been sharper than Love of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 12.80 for the season and 14.11 across his last two games while Love’s ANY/A is 6.86 and 5.47 over his last two.

Utah State Aggies vs. LSU Tigers NCAA Prediction

SU Winner – LSU, ATS Winner – Utah State, O/U – Over


Team Betting Notes

As a team, Utah State has produced 5.2 yards per carry across its last three games and 3.9 over its last two.

LSU has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.3 over its past two.

LSU has lost one fumble this season while Utah State has lost three.

The Aggies offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have accounted for eight such plays.

The Utah State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while LSU has given up two such plays.

The Utah State offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while LSU has created five such runs.

The Aggies defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tigers have given up two such runs.

The LSU defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 11 times this season. Utah State has registered eight sacks.

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