USC at Colorado College Football Free Pick 10/25/19


The USC Trojans (-13) are heading east to face their Pac-12 nemesis Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Kickoff is fairly late for fans on the East Coast (9:00 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 has the TV rights.

USC vs. Colorado Betting Odds 10/25/2019

The line for this Pac-12 game is sitting at 13 points in favor of USC. The Trojans are currently being given -550 moneyline odds while the Buffaloes are +375. The over/under is set at 61 points. If one program can catch a lucky break early, it will likely produce a nice live betting opportunity.

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This game’s O/U was initially placed at 60, but the over has received the majority of the early sharp action.

The Trojans are 4-3 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Buffaloes are 3-4 SU overall and are also 1-3 SU in conference play. The Trojans are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 0.3 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-5.

The Buffaloes have gained 1.2 units this season. They’re 3-4 ATS and have an even O/U record of 3-3-1.

The Trojans are looking to keep things going after a solid 41-14 win over Arizona last week where Kedon Slovis completed 19-of-28 passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Markese Stepp (66 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) and Kenan Christon (103 yards on eight carries, two TDs) led the ground attack while Tyler Vaughns (seven receptions, 73 yards, one TD) and Michael Pittman Jr. (four catches, 69 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, Washington State took care of this Colorado team by a score of 41-10. Steven Montez completed 16-of-30 passes for 129 yards and two interceptions. Alex Fontenot (105 yards on 11 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Laviska Shenault Jr. (four receptions, 46 yards) and K.D. Nixon (three catches, 38 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. USC has run the ball on 49.7 percent of its offensive possessions while Colorado has an overall rush percentage of 51.6. The Trojans have rushed for 151 yards/game (including 135 per game versus Pac-12 opponents) and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Buffaloes are averaging 155 rushing yards per contest (162 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.

The Trojans have averaged 280 yards in the air overall (289 per game against conference opposition) and have 14 passing scores so far. The Buffaloes have recorded 253 pass yards per outing (236.5 in the Pac-12) and have 11 total pass TDs.

Defensively, USC appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 189 rush yards and 227 pass yards per game. Colorado has allowed 166.4 yards per game on the ground and 316 to opponents in the air. The Trojans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.89 to opposing QBs, while the Buffaloes have given up an 8.26 ANY/A.

Slovis has been more efficient than Montez lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.12for the season (and 7.64 over the last two games). Montez’s ANY/A is 7.32 for the year and -0.39 over his past two outings.

When these two squads met last year, USC emerged victorious by a final score of 31-20.

USC Trojans vs. Colorado Buffaloes NCAA Prediction

SU Winner – USC, ATS Winner – USC, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The O/U for USC’s last game going into it was 69. The under cashed in the team’s 41-14 victory over Arizona.

USC has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.2 over its last two.

Colorado has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.6 over its past two.

The Colorado offense has lost two fumbles this season while USC has lost five.

Over its last three matches, USC is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Colorado’s last game was set at 68.5. The under cashed in that 41-10 defeat to Washington State.

Over its last three contests, Colorado is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Colorado has dropped five of its last six games SU, with a three-point win over Arizona State on September 21st accounting for the only victory over that stretch.

The Trojans offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Buffaloes have put up four such plays.

The USC defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Colorado has given up seven such plays.

The USC offense has created nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Colorado has created seven such runs.

The Trojans defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Buffaloes have given up seven such runs.

The USC D has 21 sacks on the year while Colorado has just 11.

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