Tulsa vs. East Carolina College Football Betting Pick 11/30/19

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Two schools that prefer to run the football, Pirates (+5.5) are ready to welcome their in-conference rival Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-5.5) to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPNU.

Tulsa vs. East Carolina Betting Odds 11/30/2019

The line for this AAC game is placed at 5.5 points in favor of Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are currently being given -235 moneyline odds while the Pirates are +185. The over/under is set at 61 points, and if one school can get out in front early on, it would likely result in a reasonable live betting opportunity.

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The line opened at 5 while the O/U hasn’t moved since it opened at 61.

The Golden Hurricane are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 1-6 SU against conference opponents. The Pirates are 4-7 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play. The Golden Hurricane are down 1.7 units so far in 2019 and 6-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-7.

The Pirates have lost 0.7 units this season. They’re 6-5 ATS and also have an O/U record of 4-7.

The Golden Hurricane are trying to get back on track after a 24-14 defeat to Houston last week. The passing game the big culprit Zach Smith completed 29 passes for 381 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The Golden Hurricane rushed for just -1 yards as a team in the loss.

East Carolina just picked up a 31-24 win over Connecticut. The defensive secondary allowed the Huskies to air it out for 433 yards and three touchdowns. Cameron Ross was outstanding, putting up 169 yards and two touchdowns on eight catches for the Huskies. For East Carolina, Holton Ahlers completed 34-of-50 passes for 374 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Darius Pinnix Jr. (105 rushing yards on 27 attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground attack in the win as Tyler Snead (16 receptions, 126 yards) and Blake Proehl (six catches, 49 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

When breaking down offensive play selection, each of these squads sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Tulsa has run the ball on 52.6 percent of its offensive possessions while East Carolina has a rush percentage of 51.0. The Golden Hurricane have run for 120 yards per game (including 128 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 16 scores via handoffs this year. The Pirates are putting up 147 rushing yards per contest (120 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

It seems like the Pirates might have the more disruptive lines up front, since their offensive line has allowed only 17 sacks while the D-line has logged 22 sacks. The Golden Hurricane O-line has given up 38 sacks and their defense has created only 14 sacks.

The Golden Hurricane have tallied 277 yards/game through the air overall (288 per game against conference opposition) and have 15 passing TDs so far. The Pirates have recorded 287 pass yards per outing (329.9 against AAC foes) and have 19 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Tulsa should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 195 rush yards and 201 pass yards per game. East Carolina has allowed 195.9 rushing yards per game and 255.3 to opponents in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Golden Hurricane have given up an ANY/A of 6.90 to opposing QBs, while the Pirates are yielding an ANY/A of 7.17.

Smith is up to 2,821 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 215-of-385 attempts with 13 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. Smith has a 5.89 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.72 over the last two games.

Look for Smith to attack all areas of the East Carolina secondary. Keylon Stokes (633 receiving yards and five touchdowns), Keenen Johnson (461 yards, one TD) and Sam Crawford Jr. (633 yards, three TDs) have all been heavily involved recently.

In the other huddle, Holton Ahlers has produced 2,581 yards, 12 TDs and 10 INTs. Ahlers’ ANY/A stands at 6.11 for the year and 9.57 over his last two games.

Tyler Snead (464 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Darius Pinnix Jr. (262 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Blake Proehl (530 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have each played key roles recently. The trio has combined to account for 571 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last two games.

These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. East Carolina Pirates Free Pick

SU Winner – East Carolina, ATS Winner – East Carolina, O/U – Under

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Golden Hurricane offense has registered 10 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Pirates have put up nine such plays.

The Tulsa defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while East Carolina has given up 11 such plays.

The Tulsa offense has created eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while East Carolina has created 17 such runs.

The Golden Hurricane defense has allowed 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Pirates have given up 26 such runs.

The East Carolina D has sacked opposing QBs 22 times this season. Tulsa has registered just 14 sacks.

Tulsa has averaged 2.3 yards per carry over its past three contests and 1.8 over its last two.

East Carolina has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.0 over its last two.

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