Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars Betting Pick 1/29/20


A pair of teams that have put themselves squarely in the playoff picture, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Dallas Stars take the ice at the American Airlines Center. Sportsnet will showcase this East-West matchup, and the action gets going at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 29.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars Odds

Dallas (-115) is being labeled as the favorite over Toronto (-105) and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at an even 6 goals. If gamblers want to wager on the game’s total, they’ll be looking at odds of -105 money on the over and -115 on the under.

Dallas is 28-21 straight up (SU) and has earned moneyline bettors 3.5 units this year. That win percentage, ranked second in the Central Division so far in this young season, isn’t too far off from to what the team posted during last year’s regular season (43-39). Through 49 regular season matches, 31 of the team’s games have gone under the total, while 16 have gone over and just two have pushed. The team’s 16-9 SU at home this year.

The Stars have converted on 19.1 percent of their power play chances this year, a mark that’s right around league average. On the other hand, their penalty kill is rated fourth overall, and they’ve successfully killed off 83.4 percent of all penalties.

As a team, the Stars have been penalized 3.7 times per game overall this season, 3.4 per game over their past five contests total, and 3.6 per game over their last five home outings. The team’s had to stave off opponent power plays for 9.8 minutes per contest over their last five home games.

With a .927 save percentage and 26.8 saves per game, Ben Bishop (19-14-3) has been the top option in goal for Dallas this year. If the Stars decide to rest him, however, Dallas may turn to Anton Khudobin (11-9-9 record, .927 save percentage, 2.30 goals against average).

The Stars will continue to lean on the leadership from Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov. Seguin (37 points) has tallied 11 goals and 26 assists and has recorded multiple points in nine different games this year. Radulov has 13 goals and 15 assists to his credit and has notched at least one point in 18 games.

Toronto has lost 7.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline thus far and is currently 26-24 straight up (SU). Through 50 regular season matches, 29 of its games have gone over the total, while 19 have gone under the total and just two have pushed. The Maple Leafs are 14-11 SU as the visiting team this season.

The Maple Leafs have converted on 23.7 percent of their power play opportunities this year, a mark that’s good enough for seventh-best in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 25th overall and it’s successfully killed off 76.4 percent of all penalties.

Toronto’s skaters have been called for penalties only 3.1 times per game in total this season, and 2.4 per game over their last five road outings. The team has been forced to kill penalties just 5.0 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.

Frederik Andersen (.910 save percentage and 2.86 goals against average) has been the primary option in goal for Toronto. Andersen is averaging 28.2 saves per game and has 23 wins, 17 losses, and six overtime losses to his credit.

Leading the offensive firepower for the visiting Maple Leafs will be Auston Matthews, who has 35 goals and 23 assists this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars Free Picks

Prediction: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Under


Betting Trends

Six of Dallas’ last ten outings have been decided by two or more goals. The team is 4-2 overall in those games.

The Stars are 15-9 SU in games where they serve more penalty minutes than their opponent while the Maple Leafs are 10-9 SU when they spend more time in the box than their opponent.

Two of Toronto’s last ten games have ended in a shootout. The team is 0-2 in those games and 1-4 overall in shootouts this season.

Dallas could hold an advantage if it’s a tight one late. The team’s 12-10 in games decided by one goal, while Toronto is only 5-11 in such games.

Four of Toronto’s last five outings have gone over the total.

Toronto skaters have averaged 8.0 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 11.3 giveaways per game (ranked 23rd in the league).

Dallas is ranked 30th this season with 12.6 giveaways per game. That figure has trended lower, however, as the team’s averaged 10.2 giveaways over its last 10 games and 10.6 giveaways over its last five.

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