Texas State at Arkansas State College Football Betting Pick 10/26/19

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The Texas State Bobcats (+12) are set to pay a visit to their in-conference counterpart Arkansas State Red Wolves (-12) at Centennial Bank Stadium. The game is scheduled to get going at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ has the TV rights.

Texas State at Arkansas State Betting Odds 10/26/2019

The line for this SBC game is placed at 12 points in favor of Arkansas State. The Bobcats are currently being given +340 moneyline odds while the Red Wolves are -475. This SBC tilt could have multiple live betting opportunities. The over/under has been set at 58.5 points.

The line initially opened at -14 and the total was originally 58, so early action appears to be slanted toward the Bobcats.

The Bobcats are 2-4 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Red Wolves are 3-4 SU overall and are also 1-2 SU in conference play. The Bobcats are down 2.0 units so far in 2019 and 0-3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-3.

The Red Wolves have lost 1.6 units this season. They’re 2-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-3.

The Bobcats came up short to Louisiana-Monroe 24-14 in a matchup where the Bobcats completed 20-of-39 passes for 246 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Gresch Jensen went 16-for-30 for 170 yards while Tyler Vitt completed three-of-eight for 72 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Caleb Twyford (78 rushing yards on 10 attempts) led the running attack in the loss while Hutch White (three receptions, 35 yards) and Jeremiah Haydel (three catches, 28 yards) manned the receiving duties.

Back on October 17, Louisiana knocked off this Arkansas State crew by a score of 37-20. The Red Wolves defense allowed the Ragin’ Cajuns to rush for 315 yards on 46 attempts, including five rush TDs. Raymond Calais put up a productive showing for Louisiana, posting 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns on eight attempts. For Arkansas State, Layne Hatcher completed 23-of-34 passes for 303 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Marcel Murray (164 rushing yards on 35 attempts) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Omar Bayless (nine receptions, 150 yards) and Jonathan Adams Jr. (six catches, 39 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Texas State has run the ball on 43.3 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 54.9 percent across possessions in conference play. Arkansas State has a rush percentage of 46.2 percent, and has run the ball 50.2 percent of the time against SBC opponents. The Bobcats have rushed for 83 yards per game (including 157 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have six touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Red Wolves are averaging 122 rushing yards per contest (129 in conference) and have five total rush TDs.

The Bobcats have logged 243 yards per game in the air overall (188 per game versus conference opposition) and have seven passing scores so far. The Red Wolves have put up 315 pass yards per outing (354.7 against SBC foes) and have 20 total pass TDs.

Texas State should possess the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 218 yards and pass for 196 yards per game. Arkansas State has allowed 229.6 yards per game on the ground and 300.6 to opponents in the air. The Bobcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.67 to opponents, while the Red Wolves have given up a 7.15 ANY/A.

Hatcher has been more effective than Jensen lately. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.58 for the year and 7.68 over his past two outings while Jensen’s ANY/A is 4.02 (and 6.50 over the past two games).

These two programs faced off a year ago with the final result being a 33-7 victory for Arkansas State.

Texas State Bobcats vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Free Pick

SU Winner – Texas State, ATS Winner – Texas State, O/U – Over

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Arkansas State defense has sacked opposing QBs 13 times this season. Texas State has recorded just four sacks.

Arkansas State has lost four fumbles in 2019 while Texas State has lost two.

The Bobcats offense has tallied three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Red Wolves have put up 13 such plays.

The Texas State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Arkansas State has given up eight such plays.

The Texas State offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Arkansas State has created seven such runs.

The Bobcats defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Red Wolves have given up 11 such runs.

The O/U for Arkansas State’s previous game going into it was 69. The under cashed in the 37-20 loss to Louisiana.

In its last three matches, Arkansas State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Texas State’s last game was set at 61. The under cashed in the team’s 24-14 loss to Louisiana-Monroe.

Texas State has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.2 over its last two.

Arkansas State has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.0 over its last two.

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