The No. 12 West Virginia Mountaineers (13-2, 2-1 Big 12) can prolong a nine-game home winning streak when they welcome the TCU Horned Frogs (12-3, 3-0 Big 12) to WVU Coliseum. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 128.5 points with West Virginia opening as a 9.5-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 14, 2020, and it can be seen on ESPNU.
TCU Horned Frogs at West Virginia Mountaineers ATS Preview
The last time the Horned Frogs played, they beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys, 52-40, comfortably covering as 3-point favorites. Desmond Bane was the game’s high scorer with 20 points on 6-for-15 shooting. TCU dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a great free throw rate of 0.250 (above their season average of 0.137) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 24.2 (below their season average of 33.9). For those same stats, Oklahoma State put up marks of 0.113 and 18.4, respectively. The two teams combined to put up 92 points, which came in well under the projected point total of 131.
The Mountaineers come in on a high note after easily covering the 4.5-point spread against the No. 22 Texas Tech Red Raiders in their last outing, 66-54. West Virginia rallied around Oscar Tshiebwe, who put up seven points and 17 rebounds. West Virginia dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.479 (above their season average of 0.257) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.448 (below their season average of 0.473). For those same stats, Texas Tech was 0.081 and 0.324, respectively. Combined, the two teams scored 120 points, which was under the projected point total of 131.
This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. In the most recent contest, the Mountaineers won 104-96. The Mountaineers dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a great free throw rate of 0.268 and an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 34.6. For those same stats, the Horned Frogs were 0.138 and 24.4, respectively.
Both of these teams tend to finish under the O/U total. Games featuring TCU have gone under 64.3 percent of the time, while West Virginia games have gone under 80.0 percent of the time. Both teams have superb straight up (SU) records (12-3 for TCU; 13-2 for West Virginia), but the Mountaineers have the edge against the spread (ATS). West Virginia is 9-6 ATS, while the Horned Frogs are 6-8.
Points could be at a premium as two of the nation’s premier defenses face off. West Virginia ranks sixth in defensive efficiency (84.3) and TCU is 20th (87.8).
TCU at West Virginia Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – West Virginia, ATS Winner – West Virginia, O/U – Under
The Mountaineers rank fifth in rebounds per game (42.3) while the Horned Frogs rank 82nd (37.7).
West Virginia ranks 49th in blocks allowed per game (2.8) while TCU ranks 79th (3.2).
TCU is 2-1 ATS on the road, while West Virginia is 4-3 ATS at home.
The total has gone under in 5 of the Mountaineers’ 7 home games, while 3 of the Horned Frogs’ 3 road games have gone under.
TCU ranks 37th in three pointers attempted per game (26.7) while West Virginia ranks 262nd (17.7).
The Mountaineers rank fifth in assists allowed per game (8.7) while the Horned Frogs rank 198th (14.5).
TCU ranks 32nd in steals allowed per game (5.4) while West Virginia ranks 172nd (7.9).
West Virginia is 4-1 ATS with 5 unders in its last five games.
Across its last five games, TCU is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
The Mountaineers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.6, down from 11.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Horned Frogs have scored an average of 67.6 points per game (4.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 59.2 points per game (1.0 below their season average).