The 2020 season will be a transitional year for a lot of NFL teams. Some will be breaking in rookie quarterbacks selected in the first round. Others have had a changing of the guard at quarterback and will be going in a different direction. Others just aren’t very good for multiple reasons.
With a lot of time on our hands and a lot of creativity coming from the oddsmakers, we have a few interesting prop bets to consider and we’ll be tracking those over the next few weeks at BangTheBook.com. In this particular article, we’ll take a look at the odds for the fewest wins in the NFL for the 2020 season as listed at BetOnline Sportsbook.
All 32 teams are listed, but we know that there will be some teams that come nowhere close to being in this discussion. For example, the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will not be in the running for this dubious distinction.
Here are the odds for the fewest wins in the NFL for the 2020 season:
Carolina Panthers +600
Cincinnati Bengals +600
Jacksonville Jaguars +600
Washington Redskins +600
Detroit Lions +800
Miami Dolphins +800
New York Giants +800
New York Jets +1200
Atlanta Falcons +1600
Las Vegas Raiders +1600
Los Angeles Chargers +1600
Arizona Cardinals +2000
Denver Broncos +2000
Houston Texans +2500
Indianapolis Colts +2500
Chicago Bears +3300
Cleveland Browns +3300
Los Angeles Rams +3300
Tennessee Titans +3300
Buffalo Bills +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4000
New England Patriots +4000
Seattle Seahawks +5000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5000
Dallas Cowboys +6600
Pittsburgh Steelers +6600
Green Bay Packers +8000
Philadelphia Eagles +8000
New Orleans Saints +10000
San Francisco 49ers +10000
Baltimore Ravens +15000
Kansas City Chiefs +25000
None of the teams in single digits are a surprise. The Panthers have moved on from Cam Newton and will roll with Teddy Bridgewater in what is a transitional season under first-year head coach Matt Rhule. The Bengals will either go with Joe Burrow from the jump or use a placeholder until he’s ready. The Jaguars traded Nick Foles to Chicago, so it will be the Gardner Minshew show unless the Jags take a QB early. The Redskins took Dwayne Haskins last year, but he doesn’t appear ready for the big time and some believe that he never will be.
The Lions have the fewest quarterback questions of the teams at short prices, but Matt Stafford’s health is still a huge concern going forward. The Dolphins are poised to move up to take a quarterback, but they could also run Josh Rosen back out there again. That won’t inspire much confidence. The Giants have Daniel Jones, who showed some good things last season. They’re the least deserving of these teams in the single digits.
With any sort of prop like this, you’d like to find something that isn’t the obvious. A 6/1 return on the bad teams is pretty solid, given that we have a good idea of which teams will be in the running for this award. The worst team in the NFL will probably be somewhere around 3-13 or 4-12. We know that means that they’re likely to go 1-5 or 0-6 in their division games, so division strength is very important.
It is a big reason why Carolina is among those at 6/1. The Saints have Drew Brees, great skill position guys, and a very solid defense. The Buccaneers were a play-on team anyway and now have Tom Brady. The Falcons still have a strong QB in Matt Ryan and a lot of good individual players. The Panthers are not only devoid of talent, but have Teddy Bridgewater and nobody really knows how he will fare.
Similarly, the Bengals are against a Ravens team that is a Super Bowl favorite, a Browns team that now appears to have a legitimate coaching staff and has made a ton of improvements in free agency, and a Steelers team that is brilliantly run and gets Ben Roethlisberger back.
The Jaguars are also in a pretty good division, but they won six games last season and may not fall off all that far. They still have solid defensive personnel and Minshew is a fine quarterback. The Colts and Titans look pretty good, but the Texans are likely to come back to the pack. The Jaguars aren’t up against it in division games as much as teams like the Panthers and Bengals.
Here are my favorite picks of the list:
Washington Redskins +600 – The Redskins are my favorite pick among the +600 crowd. They are in the NFC East, which could help their chances of picking up a division win or two, but this is a team that allowed 435 points last season. They lost all six division games and accounted for 50% of the Giants’ wins.
We’ll have to see if the Redskins grab a QB in the NFL Draft or if they take Chase Young. It may not matter a whole lot for this season anyway, as this is a marginal group of skill players and a team full of guys that have battled injuries over the last couple of seasons. The Redskins just can’t stay healthy and lack star power all over the field.
At least a guy like Bridgewater is a competent QB and the Panthers are going to play hard. Burrow will be an upgrade for a Bengals roster that wasn’t as bad as its 2-14 record last season. The Jaguars don’t belong in this same price range. That leaves the Redskins.
Las Vegas Raiders +1600 – The rush to the bottom to Tank for Trevor will be fascinating to watch. Don’t we all think Jon Gruden has it in him to do that? The first season in Las Vegas could work out in the Raiders’ favor, much like it did for the Vegas Golden Knights with the “Vegas Flu”.
Assuming we have fans in the crowd, those audiences in Las Vegas are likely to be 50/50 with travelers coming into town. The Raiders were fortunate to be 7-9 last season, as their Expected Win-Loss was more like that of a 5-11 team.
The Chargers are being lauded as a sneaky playoff pick. The Broncos aren’t great, but they seem to find ways to be competitive more often than not. It would not be shocking if the bottom fell out for the Raiders so that they could get the services of Trevor Lawrence with the #1 overall pick in 2021 and have a true building block in Sin City.
Seattle Seahawks +5000 – Look, this isn’t one that I would necessarily recommend now, but it’s one to file away in the back of your mind. If the Seahawks lost Russell Wilson, they would be beyond terrible. Even with Wilson, this was a fraudulent 11-5 team had was basically 8-8 by Expected Win-Loss.
Seattle was +12 in turnover margin and ranked third in takeaways. They won five games by four or fewer points. They lost zero games decided by four or fewer points. This is a clear-cut regression candidate and they could be in the race to the bottom if Russ had a long-term injury. The 31-year-old has taken some abuse the last few seasons with some bad offensive line play. The Cardinals are better. The Rams won’t be, but the 49ers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
It would likely take a long-term Russ injury, but this is also a commentary on how the Seahawks are likely to decline in 2020.