There is only one NFL game left for the 2018 season. Your natural instinct is going to be to go crazy on that game, but you want to make sure that you still adhere to proper bankroll management techniques. With so many prop betting options available, along with the usual side, total, and money line, it is much easier said than done.
If nothing else, you have to make informed wagers and shop around for the best prices. Our sportsbook reviews can help you with the latter and you can get a nice promo code bonus to give that account a head start. For the former, you’ll want to keep it tuned to BangTheBook.com and see what our talented and well-informed cast of writers has in mind for the big game.
In this breakdown, I’ll be taking a look at the Game Props for Super Bowl LIII. In follow-up articles, which I will hyperlink in each article, I’ll be looking at Patriots player and team props, Rams player and team props, and the novelty/entertainment props. In each article, I’ll have anywhere from three to five of my favorite props for you to consider with my reasoning behind those picks.
Once again, before I go into my thoughts on the game, shop around for the best prices. There may be a difference of five or 10 cents worth of juice or there may be a difference of multiple yards on a prop. All of it matters to your bottom line.
Longest Touchdown Under 50.5 Yards (-125, BetDSI) – This line is 49.5 with the under at -135 at 5Dimes at time of writing. BetOnline has “Will there be a TD of 50 yards or longer?” with Yes +110 and No -130.
We know that the Patriots limit big plays. The defense will allow a lot of yardage underneath, but getting beat over the top doesn’t happen.
The longest rush for the Patriots this season was 34 yards and the longest rush for the Rams was a 56-yard scamper from Robert Woods. CJ Anderson’s longest carry was 46 yards and Todd Gurley’s was 36 yards. That takes a long running play out of the equation.
The Patriots had three touchdown receptions longer than this during the season. One went to Josh Gordon, who is not playing. Another went to Chris Hogan and one more to Cordarrelle Patterson. The Rams had two touchdown receptions longer than this. Both were scored by Cooper Kupp.
The Patriots allowed five touchdowns longer than this. One was the Miami Miracle. The others were Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Dede Westbrook, and Brandon Bolden. They allowed four of them in two separate games, the win over the Chiefs and the loss to the Dolphins. You can bet that they’ll be better prepared for the Super Bowl.
The Rams allowed two touchdowns longer than this. Tyreek Hill struck again there and then the Michael Thomas game-winning score in the track meet against the Saints.
I’d definitely look at the under here. This should be a more methodical game than those regular season shootouts.
Both Teams Make a Field Goal Greater than 32 Yards (-133, BetDSI) – This line is 33+ and -140 to the over at 5Dimes. As good as these two offenses are, they were rather pedestrian in the red zone this season. The Patriots were 15th in TD% at 59.6 percent and the Rams were 18th at 57.5 percent.
We know that we have two kickers with a lot of leg in this game. As analytically-minded as Sean McVay is, he’s made some questionable kicking decisions in the playoffs, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he opts to take the three points on a fourth and short in FG range. The Patriots only went for it 14 times on fourth down during the regular season.The Rams went 16 times.
We should see a lot of movement between the 20s at the very least in this game. This prop should come through.
Total Touchdowns Under 6.5 (+110, BetOnline) – BetOnline has the best juice for this one at +110. If you like the under in this game, you can do better with the juice than the standard -110 by betting one of these alternative totals props. DSI has the under at -114 and 5Dimes has the under at +105.
Obviously six touchdowns with extra points would be 42 points. If you’re expecting a few field goals as well, then we’re getting closer and closer to the total. If you’re looking at the under in this game like I am, then this is a prop bet that makes a lot of sense. The Patriots have really taken the air out of the ball this postseason and the Rams will likely want to play keep away with a safe offensive game plan as well.
You notice a correlation between this prop and the other two that I’ve listed here. I’m not expecting big, explosive plays, hence the under longest touchdown prop. I’m expecting some field goals, hence the both teams 32+ FG prop.
Whether you are looking at player props or game props, you want to consider the game flow. You want to have an expectation for how you expect the game to play out. For me, I’m looking for a lower-scoring game with some more field goals and not as much excitement and explosiveness as last year’s game.
No Overtime (-1000, BetDSI) – It took 51 Super Bowls to get an overtime game. Even though this line is below the key number of three, that doesn’t change the way that you should approach this prop. Overtime would have to hit more than 10 percent of the time to take a noteworthy loss on this prop. I’m sorry. I know overtime sounds fun and exciting. It probably won’t happen. Similarly, we’re most likely not going to see a safety. It just is what it is.