Strategy

MLB Money Line Betting

Learn To Win at Betting By Losing

If This Is You - Stop Betting Right Now

Fading The Betting Public - Perceptions and Realities

A Touts Thoughts on Buying Sports Picks

Sports Betting Tips - How To Hedge Your Bet

Tips for In-Play Wagering and Live Betting Sports

Understanding The Key Numbers in NFL Sports Betting

Sports Betting: What is Contrarian Betting?

Reading the Sports Betting Market

Newsletter

BetDSI

Bookmaker

Bet US

BetOnline

Bovada

<p>Looking to win big? The Sharks and Falcons face off at 4:00 ET on MWN. The Falcons are hosting the game at Clune Arena in Colorado Springs, CO. The over/under for this game is set at 142.5 points, and Air Force is favored by -10.5 against LIU in a non-conference matchup.</p><h3>LIU SHARKS VS AIR FORCE FALCONS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: LIU Sharks +10.5</p><p>This game will be played at Clune Arena at 4:00 ET on Monday, November 11th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE LIU SHARKS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-71 in favor of the Falcons.</li><li>Even though we have Air Force winning straight-up, we like LIU at +10.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 142.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 148 points.</li></ul><h3>Will LIU Be The Talk of Clune Arena?</h3><h3>LIU Sharks Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>The Sharks faced a tough challenge on Monday, November 4th, as they went on the road to take on Ole Miss. LIU entered the game as +29 point underdogs and ended up losing 90-60.</p> 

<p>LIU trailed 44-27 at halftime and couldn’t close the gap in the 2nd half, where they were outscored 46-33. The total points for the game went over the 149-point line.</p><p>LIU struggled offensively in their last game, shooting just 34.5% from the field and 33.3% from three-point range, finishing with 60 points. They managed only 6 assists and 8 offensive rebounds, with an effective field goal percentage of 37.9%.</p> <p>Jaylen Murray stood out, hitting 5 threes on 62.5% shooting, finishing with 24 points and 2 assists. Brent Davis and Malachi Davis each added 19 points, with Malachi hitting 66.7% from deep.</p><p>LIU's defense struggled in their last game, giving up 90 points on 49% shooting from the field. They allowed their opponents to hit 54% of their two-point attempts, going 19/35 inside the arc.</p> <p>From three-point range, LIU's defense gave up 9 threes on 22 attempts, a 40% shooting rate. They also sent their opponents to the free-throw line 32 times, where they converted 25 free throws, shooting 78%. LIU allowed 13 offensive rebounds in the game.</p><h3>Will the Falcons Live Up to Expectations at Home?</h3><h3>Air Force Falcons Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>The Falcons opened their season with a 73-67 win over Jacksonville State on Thursday, November 7th. Air Force, who were -2 favorites, covered the spread at home.</p> 

<p>After trailing 30-22 at halftime, the Falcons turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring the Gamecocks 51-37. The game’s total points of 140 went over the pre-game O/U line of 133.</p><p>Air Force put up 73 points in their last game, shooting 48.1% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 59.3%. They hit 12 threes at a 38.7% clip, while connecting on 60.9% of their two-point attempts.</p> <p>Ethan Taylor led the way with 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists, hitting 4 threes on 10 attempts. Jaron Pierre Jr. added 21 points, and Jeffrey Mills contributed 18 points, knocking down 4 of 7 from deep.</p><p>Air Force's defense gave up 67 points in their last game, with opponents shooting 48% from the field. They allowed 14 two-point field goals on 23 attempts, a 60% shooting rate.</p> <p>From beyond the arc, Air Force's opponents hit 12 of 31 threes, good for 38%. They also went 9/16 from the free-throw line, shooting 56%. Air Force gave up 8 offensive rebounds.</p>

LIU Sharks vs Air Force Falcons NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/11/24

<p>Betting on today's Highlanders and Rams game? Catch the action at Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA, as the Rams hosts this showdown at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The over/under goal line for this matchup is currently at 133.5 points, and the Rams are favored to win at home against the Highlanders.</p><h3>RADFORD HIGHLANDERS VS VCU RAMS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: VCU Rams -4.5</p><p>This game will be played at Stuart C. Siegel Center at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, November 15th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE VCU RAMS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-67 in favor of the Rams.</li><li>Not only will VCU pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -4.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 133.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 142 points.</li></ul><h3>Can the Highlanders Pull Off a Win at Richmond?</h3><p>Radford is playing for the 3rd time this year, carrying in a 1-1 mark. On the road, the Highlanders are 0-1 this season compared to their 1-0 record at home. Currently, Radford has an ATS record of 1-1 heading into their matchup vs. Radford. Going back to last year, the team's last three games has led to an ATS record of 2-0, and an average scoring margin of 5.</p><p>In two games, Radford comes in with an over/under mark of 1-1-0, with their games averaging 142 points per game. Over the course of the last five games, the Highlanders' games have averaged 68 points per game, along with an over/under record of 1-3.</p><p>Coming off their recent game, the Radford offense tallied 66 points in a matchup against Marshall. Their field goal percentage for the game was 37.7%, and they made 9 threes. For the season, the Radford offense has struggled to get to the free-throw line, ranking just 303rd in terms of free-throw attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 45%.</p><p>In the current season, the Radford defense has excelled, sitting 44th in the nation by allowing 65.0 points per game.</p><h3>Can VCU Live Up to the Hype at Home?</h3><p>After picking up a 75-65 win over Samford in their most recent game, Radford now has a record of 1-1. Over their previous ten home games including last year, Radford has gone 8-2 at home. Looking at VCU's ATS performance, they have an ATS record of 1-1 ahead of today's game. Looking back on the school's last three games, their ATS record is 2-1 with an average scoring margin of 8 </p><p>Radford comes in with an over/under record of 0-2-0 through two games, with their games averaging a combined 140.5 points per game so far. Looking at the Rams' last three games, their over/under record is 0-3 with their games averaging 69 points per game.</p><p>In their recent matchup, the Radford offense ended with 75 points against Samford. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 49% and made 5 threes. The top scorer for the Rams was Max Shulga with 17 points, while Zeb Jackson also chipped in with 13 points.</p><p>Coming into today's game, the Radford defense is giving up an average of 70.5 points per contest.</p>

Radford Highlanders vs VCU Rams Betting Pick & Prediction 11/15/23

Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets Betting Pick & Prediction 5/7/25

Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Pick & Prediction 5/7/25

Edmonton Oilers vs Vegas Golden Knights Betting Pick & Prediction 5/6/25

Carolina Hurricanes vs Washington Capitals Betting Pick & Prediction 5/6/25

Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Pick & Prediction 5/5/25

St. Louis Blues vs Winnipeg Jets Betting Pick & Prediction 5/4/25

Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars Betting Pick & Prediction 5/3/25

Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues Betting Pick & Prediction 5/2/25

Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers Betting Pick & Prediction 5/1/25

Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild Betting Pick & Prediction 5/1/25

Nascar

Enjoy Illinois 300 Betting Preview

Auto Racing Odds -- It's a BIG week ahead for Motor Sports

2021 Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 Betting Odds & Predictions

2021 Quaker State 400 Betting Odds & Predictions

2021 Jockey Made in America 250 Betting Odds & Predictions

2021 Coca-Cola 600 Betting Odds & Predictions

2021 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Betting Odds & Predictions

2021 Drydene 400 Betting Odds & Predictions

2021 NASCAR Cup Series Goodyear 400 Betting Odds & Free Picks

2021 NASCAR Cup Series Buschy McBusch Race 400 Betting Odds & Free Picks

<p>Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Jaguars versus the Eagles? Tip off is at at 3:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN+. The game will be played at W. S. Hanner Fieldhouse in Statesboro, GA. In this Sun Belt matchup, South Alabama is favored bt -5.5 vs. Georgia Southern. The over/under for the game is 143.5 points.</p><h3>SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS VS GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Georgia Southern Eagles +5.5</p><p>This game will be played at W. S. Hanner Fieldhouse at 3:00 ET on Saturday, January 4th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-70 in favor of the Eagles.</li><li>Not only will Georgia Southern pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +5.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 143.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 147 points.</li></ul><h3>Can South Alabama Secure a Road Victory?</h3><p>South Alabama improved to 8-4 on the season with a dominant 77-51 road win over Georgia State on Thursday. The Jaguars entered the game as -4.5 favorites and covered the spread, while the total points of 128 fell short of the 138.5 O/U line.</p> <p>Leading 33-30 at halftime, South Alabama clamped down defensively in the 2nd half, allowing just 21 points while scoring 44 of their own to pull away for the win.</p><p>South Alabama put up 77 points in their last game, shooting 47% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 54.5%. They were strong inside, hitting 61.1% of their two-point attempts, while struggling from deep, connecting on just 30% of their threes. The Jaguars were perfect from the free-throw line, going 6-for-6.</p> <p>Barry Dunning Jr. led the way with 22 points and 8 rebounds, shooting 52.9% overall. Toneari Lane and Judah Brown each added 15 points, with Brown hitting 5 of 9 threes. JJ Wheat was perfect from the field, going 6-for-6 and adding 5 rebounds and 4 assists. The Jaguars finished with 19 assists and 13 offensive rebounds.</p><p>South Alabama's defense was strong, holding their opponent to just 51 points on 36% shooting. They limited the damage inside, allowing only 9 two-point field goals on 17 attempts (52%).</p> <p>From beyond the arc, South Alabama gave up 9 threes on 33 attempts (27%). Their opponent also struggled at the free-throw line, hitting just 6 of 14 (42%). The Jaguars allowed 11 offensive rebounds.</p><h3>Can the Eagles Please their Home Crowd?</h3><p>Georgia Southern improved to 7-6 on the season with a 90-82 win over Louisiana-Monroe on Thursday. Despite being -10 favorites, the Eagles didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 172 exceeded the over/under line of 148.5.</p> <p>After trailing 46-35 at halftime, Georgia Southern turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring the Warhawks 55-36.</p><p>Georgia Southern put up 90 points in their latest game, shooting 52.5% from the field and 45.5% from beyond the arc, hitting 15 threes. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 65.6%, and they connected on 91.7% of their free throws.</p> <p>Bradley Douglas led the way with 30 points, hitting 8 of 12 threes, while Coltie Young added 20 points in just 13 minutes, shooting 5 of 7 from deep. The Eagles also dished out 21 assists, with Nakavieon White and Tyreese Watson contributing 5 each.</p><p>Georgia Southern's defense struggled in their last game, giving up 82 points on 52% shooting from the field. They allowed 60% shooting on two-point attempts, with the opposing team hitting 17 of 28 shots.</p> <p>From beyond the arc, Georgia Southern gave up 15 threes on 33 attempts, a 45% clip. They also sent the other team to the line 12 times, where they converted 11 free throws. Georgia Southern allowed 11 offensive rebounds.</p>

South Alabama Jaguars vs Georgia Southern Eagles NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 1/4/25

Golf

2023 Ryder Cup Betting Preview

Fortinet Championship 2023 Preview

Ryder Cup Preview

TOUR Championship 2023 Betting Preview

BMW Championship 2023 Preview

FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview

Wyndham Championship Preview

3M Open Preview

The Open Championship Betting Preview

Genesis Scottish Open Betting Preview

<p>Betting on today's Paladins and Terriers game? Catch the action at Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium in Spartanburg, SC, as the Terriers hosts this showdown at 6:00 ET on ESPN+. Furman is favored by -5.5 in this Southern conference showdown. The game's over/under is currently at 154.5 points.</p><h3>FURMAN PALADINS VS WOFFORD TERRIERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Wofford Terriers +5.5</p><p>This game will be played at Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium at 6:00 ET on Saturday, January 27th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE WOFFORD TERRIERS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Terriers.</li><li>Not only will Wofford pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +5.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 154.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.</li></ul><h3>Will the Paladins Make it Happen in Spartanburg?</h3><p>After winning their last game against Samford by a score of 78-68, Furman comes into this game with an 11-9 record. They have won five straight games and are 5-2 in Southern Conference play.</p>

<p>On the road, the Paladins are just 1-7 this season, and over their last ten road games, they have gone 2-8. As the favorite, they are 9-1, and their average scoring margin at home is +9.3. For the year, Furman has gone 6-7 in non-conference action.</p><p>As the favorite this season, Furman has gone 6-4 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 3-5 and over their last three road games, they are 1-2 vs. the spread.</p><p>So far this season, the over/under record in Furman games sits at 9-8, and today's line of 154.5 is right in line with the average over/under line in their games this year (157.1). In their last three games, the over/under record is 0-3 with an average scoring total of just 144 points compared to the season average of 158.6. Over their last 10 games, the over/under record is 3-6 with an average scoring total of 153 points.</p><p>The Paladins' offense finished with 78 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 81.7 points per contest. Offensively, the Paladins have a season long field goal percentage of 45%, which is 189th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 315th in percentage and 25th in three-pointers made.</p><p>Facing Wofford, Furman aims for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 76.2 points allowed per game (246th). So far, the Furman defense is giving up an average of 7.8 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 13 times per game (659th).</p><h3>Does Wofford Stand a Chance at Home?</h3><p>Despite being underdogs, Wofford has been better at home than on the road this season, going 3-4 at home and 5-5 on the road. Over their last 10 games at home, the Terriers are 6-4.</p>

<p>Wofford is coming off a 79-65 loss to Chattanooga and has lost two straight games. On the season, the Terriers are 11-9 and 4-3 in Southern Conference play.</p><p>As the underdog this season, Wofford has gone 7-4 vs. the spread. However, their ATS mark at home is just 1-6 and they are 0-3 in their last three home games vs. the spread. Overall, the Terriers have an ATS record of 7-9-1 this year.</p><p>Wofford's over/under record this season is 12-4-1. Over their last three games, the OU record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 144 points. Today's over/under line of 154.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this season (146.4). So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today's OU line.</p><p>The Wofford offense is coming off a game where they scored 65 points against Chattanooga. They posted a field goal percentage of 50% and connected on 5 threes. For the season, the Wofford offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 46%. So far, they have hit 54% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 9.5 made three's per contest.</p><p>As they prepare for the upcoming game, Wofford is focused on shoring up their defense, as they are currently allowing an average of 76.0 points per game (244th). Against Chattanooga, the Terriers' defense gave up 79 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Chattanooga only made 10 free-throws.</p>

Furman Paladins vs Wofford Terriers Betting Pick & Prediction 1/27/24

<p>The competitive action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby continues this weekend, with the G2 Rebel Stakes being staged at Oaklawn Park.</p>



<p>This Grade 2 has been a regular prep race for the opening Triple Crown race since 2013, and it has been a key trial with a number of runners having competed in the Arkansas Derby on their way to Churchill Downs. This year’s renewal looks like a competitive affair, and you can find out more about the leading contenders here.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-history-amp-records">History &amp; Records</h2>



<p>The G2 Rebel Stakes has been staged annually since 1961. In its infancy, it was run as the Rebel Handicap, before it was renamed in 1984. It immediately gained traction as an important <a href="https://www.bangthebook.com/horse-racing/">Derby</a> prep, with Bass Clef winning the inaugural edition before finishing third in the Kentucky Derby.</p>



<p>Bob Baffert has dominated this race throughout history, with eight previous winners coming from his yard. Last year, the Rebel Stakes was won by Confidence Game for trainer Keith Desormeaux.</p>



<p>New: <a href="https://www.bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/us/">Our top 10 US sportsbooks</a></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-rebel-stakes-leading-contenders">Rebel Stakes Leading Contenders</h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-timberlake">Timberlake</h3>



<p>All eyes this weekend will be on the returning Timberlake for trainer Brad Cox. The three-year-old was one of the most interesting Derby contenders as a two-year-old, having landed the Champagne Stakes at Belmont at the Big A.</p>



<p>However, his season ended with a disappointing fourth in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Doubts remain surrounding his ability to stay, but he is a deserving favorite at this stage given that he boasts the best form lines in the race.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-carbone">Carbone</h3>



<p>Steven Asmussen has been unleashing no shortage of Derby contenders over the last few weeks, and he once again has another leading contender in the form of Carbone this weekend.</p>



<p>The three-year-old put in an out-of-sorts performance in testing muddy conditions over 1 1/16 in the G3 Southwest Stakes last time out, but was highly progressive before that effort after reaching high 90 speed ratings when winning back-to-back races at Oaklawn Park. Back on suitable ground, he’s worth his chance.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-just-steel">Just Steel</h3>



<p>Justify offsprings have been in stunning form already this year, and it will be no surprise to see the Triple Crown winner produce another Derby contender in the form of Just Steel this weekend.</p>



<p>The runner for D. Wayne Lukas was second in the G3 Southwest Stakes on his previous start, meaning he could be a leading chance of the rain comes at Oaklawn Park. His speed figures at least put him in the mix this weekend. He also has plenty of experience over the distance, finishing second in the Smarty Jones Stakes on fast ground.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-rebel-stakes-prediction">Rebel Stakes Prediction</h2>



<p>As expected, there is a typically competitive renewal of the Rebel Stakes this weekend. Timberlake and Just Steel are both players for Exotics angles, but the most interesting win contender could come in the form of Time For Truth for trainer Ron Moquett.</p>



<p>This three-year-old looks to have been crying out for a step up in distance, and could be a great contender to score after staying on for second in the Ozark Stakes over six furlongs with a 93 speed rating at Oaklawn earlier this month.</p>



<p><strong>Win: Time For Truth</strong></p>



<p><strong>Exacta Box: (7) Timberlake/ (11) Just Steel/ (13) Time For Truth</strong></p>

Oaklawn Park- G2 Rebel Stakes Preview &amp; Prediction

News

NFL Weekend Preview: Player Spotlights, Tactical Breakdowns &amp; Predictions

Friday Night Showdowns: Preseason Week 2 Kicks Off

BMW Championship 2025: Penultimate Showdown in the FedEx Cup Playoffs

NFL Betting Preview

MLB: Game Previews &amp; Betting Insights

NFL Opening Action: Today's Games &amp; What to Watch in an Electric 2025 Season

Yankees Edge Out Red Sox in Extra Innings Thriller – What Bettors Can Learn from Yesterday’s Showdown

BetOnline Offering "What the Puck?" Promo

Big Crypto Bonuses at BetUS Sportsbook

BetDSI Bonuses & Promotions for June 2024

<strong>Inside the Numbers</strong>

Bettors are generally familiar with sports wagering using a point spread. When we bet on a favorite using a point spread, in order to win our bet our team must win the game by more than the number. To win betting on the underdog, they can lose the game as long as it's not by more than the number. Quite simple, and anyone that has done that is keenly aware of the fact that we are <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sports-betting-odds-how-to-win-and-beat-the-vig/"><strong>paying a vigorish of 10%</strong></a>.

Betting on baseball using the money line is the same but different. The only real difference is the vigorish, simply because we are betting on a team to win, whether it's by one run or ten runs. There are cases where the vig is indeed 10%, or the money line is -110, but that are the exception rather than the rule simply because all teams are hardly created equal.

Add to the mix the fact that the starting pitchers are the largest factor books use when determining where to set the opening line. For example, betting on the Los Angeles Dodgers to beat the Atlanta Braves, at home, is going to be expensive. That bet will be exponentially more expensive if Clayton Kerhsaw is pitching, upwards of -300, or risking $300 to win $100. Remember, winning by one run or ten does not matter.

Conversely, if we think Atlanta has a viable chance, we can bet on the Braves to win the game at +280, or bet $100 to win $280. It is virtually no different than betting on a football game without having a point spread. If the Patriots are playing the Steelers  and favored by six points, betting on them to win without having to do so by a touchdown is going to cost -300. It is all win probability percentage.

<strong>It is All Connected</strong>

This chart shows the correlation between the point spread in a football game and approximately what the corresponding money line would be There is also a column for <a href="http://bangthebook.com/odds-calculator/"><strong>expected win percentage based on the given line</strong></a>. Bear in mind these numbers vary from book-to-book and are adjusted throughout the betting cycle.

&nbsp;
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="138"><strong>Point Spread</strong></td>
<td width="150"><strong>Money Line</strong></td>
<td width="192"><strong>Expected Win %</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">2</td>
<td width="150">-130</td>
<td width="192">56.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-2.5</td>
<td width="150">-140</td>
<td width="192">58.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-3</td>
<td width="150">-155</td>
<td width="192">60.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-3.5</td>
<td width="150">-175</td>
<td width="192">63.63</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-4</td>
<td width="150">-190</td>
<td width="192">65.51</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-4.5</td>
<td width="150">-220</td>
<td width="192">68.75</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-5</td>
<td width="150">-240</td>
<td width="192">70.58</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-6</td>
<td width="150">-270</td>
<td width="192">72.97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-6.5</td>
<td width="150">-300</td>
<td width="192">75.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-7</td>
<td width="150">-330</td>
<td width="192">76.74</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-7.5</td>
<td width="150">-370</td>
<td width="192">78.72</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-8</td>
<td width="150">-400</td>
<td width="192">80.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="138">-8.5</td>
<td width="150">-450</td>
<td width="192">81.81</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<strong>
Why Expected Win Rate Matters</strong>

When we bet football and are laying -110 on the majority of our bets, we must win at  rate of 52.38% to break even. For the novice, or beginner, that sounds relatively easy to accomplish. Those that have been around any length of time know better.

Since we are rarely laying -110 with a baseball team, that win rate matters even more. Using the above chart, if you are betting what most people call "short favorites", they are typically in the -140 range. That makes your expected win rate to break even 58.33%. On the surface that seem like not a huge increase, but the calculator tells us that it is an 8% increase in playing against the -110.

With that said, many people play underdogs. This chart shows the win rate for a typical range of underdog prices.

&nbsp;
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="137"><strong>Money Line</strong></td>
<td width="151"><strong>Expected Win %</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">+130</td>
<td width="151">43.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">+150</td>
<td width="151">40.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">+170</td>
<td width="151">37.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">+190</td>
<td width="151">34.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">+210</td>
<td width="151">32.25</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The following chart is an example of how taking underdogs in the right situations can turn a profit winning less than the 52.38% we are familiar with from laying -110. This is an actual set of eight games the Atlanta Braves played in April, complete with the price they closed at as well as the result. As you can see they won four and lost four, or, won 50%.
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="106"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td width="151"><strong>Opponent</strong></td>
<td width="116"><strong>Pitcher</strong></td>
<td width="64"><strong>Line</strong></td>
<td width="85"><strong>Score</strong></td>
<td width="87"><strong>Result</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="106">April 30</td>
<td width="151">at Brewers</td>
<td width="116">Foltynewicz</td>
<td width="64">-105</td>
<td width="85">3-4</td>
<td width="87">Loss</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="106">April 29</td>
<td width="151">at Brewers</td>
<td width="116">Garia</td>
<td width="64">+110</td>
<td width="85">11-3</td>
<td width="87">Win</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="106">April 28</td>
<td width="151">at Brewers</td>
<td width="116">Colon</td>
<td width="64">-105</td>
<td width="85">10-8</td>
<td width="87">Win</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="106">April 27</td>
<td width="151">at Mets</td>
<td width="116">Dickey</td>
<td width="64">+150</td>
<td width="85">7-5</td>
<td width="87">Win</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="106">April 26</td>
<td width="151">at Mets</td>
<td width="116">Teheran</td>
<td width="64">+130</td>
<td width="85">8-2</td>
<td width="87">Win</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="106">April 23</td>
<td width="151">at Philadelphia</td>
<td width="116">Foltynewicz</td>
<td width="64">-105</td>
<td width="85">2-5</td>
<td width="87">Loss</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="106">April 22</td>
<td width="151">at Philadelphia</td>
<td width="116">Garcia</td>
<td width="64">+105</td>
<td width="85">3-4</td>
<td width="87">Loss</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="106">April 21</td>
<td width="151">at Philadelphia</td>
<td width="116">Colon</td>
<td width="64">+100</td>
<td width="85">3-4</td>
<td width="87">Loss</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
As you can see, if you had bet $100 on each game, in the four losses it would have cost you $410. In the four wins you would have profited $490, so a net gain without having to win more than 50%. These are simple examples. With this knowledge it is fairly simply to extrapolate what betting on bigger underdogs could net, but of course they're expected win rate is less as well.

<strong>The Timing of the Bet</strong>

We also need to factor in the market itself, which tends to be far less static and more fluid than a point spread might be in football. The following chart show the betting cycle for a recent game between Chicago and Kansas City. As you can see, the books opened the game with the White Sox being +124 underdogs. For our purposes here, the starting pitchers or the venue are irrelevant. Within an hour the books saw money come in on Chicago and adjusted the price to +118, trying to make the Royals look more attractive at a lesser price. Within the next several hours they did get some Kansas City money, but at the end of this particular window the White Sox were bet down to only +107.

<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-404264" src="http://bangthebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/mlb-runline-e1494253968440.png" alt="MLB Run Line Betting" width="600" height="160" />

That may not seem like a big move, and in some respects it's not. However, if we'd have bet on Chicago early we would have a .17 better number. That is almost a 4% difference in win probability, or roughly one full point in the difference in a football spread. One little point. That one little point could be the difference between -3 and -2 in a football game, which we know is actually a huge difference. The difference is so drastic that most sharp bettors would not bet -3 and would gladly bet -2. We are making a mistake <a href="http://bangthebook.com/betting-money-lines"><strong>betting baseball lines</strong></a> by not searching for the best value or the best expected win percentage.

<strong>Dime Lines</strong>

Shopping for the best price on baseball money line bet is no different than any other shopping, and there are lots of options. You would not pay more for gasoline across the street, so you wouldn't pay more for a commodity like a money line.

A "dime line" refers to the amount of vig charged by the bookmaker. For example in baseball money lines, if a favorite is -120 and the underdog is +110, that would be a dime line.

As the favorites increase in price, what the books charge increases in price, and that graduated increase is by no means standard from one book to another. The price will go from the standard dime line to twenty cents, and more. So, being able to get a dime line is one of the biggest advantages in betting baseball.

Bear in mind that the bookmakers are not in business to lose and almost every numerical and statistical probability is set up in their favor, not ours.

This is an "average" chart that a reasonable book will charge.
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="120">Favorite</td>
<td width="96">Underdog</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-120</td>
<td width="96">+110</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-130</td>
<td width="96">+120</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-140</td>
<td width="96">+125</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-150</td>
<td width="96">+135</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-160</td>
<td width="96">+140</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-170</td>
<td width="96">+150</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-180</td>
<td width="96">+160</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-190</td>
<td width="96">+165</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">-200</td>
<td width="96">+170</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
At -200 it is a thirty cent line, which is just that much more difficult to beat. It is almost cost-prohibitive to be taking the favorite and needing to win 66% of the time to just maintain is, well, very difficult. There is declining value in taking the underdog at +170 and having to win 37% to break even, as opposed to if it were a dime line, or +190, which changes the rate we need to 34%. Three percent, three more wins or three less losses out of 100. It sounds like an insignificant number, but to professional bettors it's the difference between winning and losing.

With that in mind you are rarely going to find a dime line on a favorite that high, but occasionally you might. The point is that there are better numbers available from <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/us/"><strong>sportsbooks</strong></a> just as there are for any other commodity.

Baseball money lines are a commodity just as gold and silver are. You would not pay more for the gold bracelet at the jewelers across the street, so don't leave your money with the sports book for no good reason other than convenience. At the end of the day you will have cost yourself as much by doing that as the teams on the field.

MLB Run Line Betting - How To Explained

Sportbook Promotions

Sports Betting Articles and Picks

Online Sportsbook Reviews

Home

UFC/MMA

Preview of UFC 304

UFC Fight Night Preview

UFC Fight Night Preview for July 2024

UFC 303 Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night Louisville Preview

UFC 301 Betting Preview

Previewing the Massive UFC 300 Card

<p>The Flames and Devils are set to face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Devils will host the game at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. This non-conference matchup has an over/under of 5.5 goals, and the Devils are favored by -1.5 against the Flames.</p><h3>CALGARY FLAMES VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: New Jersey Devils -1.5</p><p>This game will be played at Prudential Center at 7:00 ET on Thursday, March 20th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE NEW JERSEY DEVILS:</h3><ul><li>Coming in as 1.5 goal favorites, our projections have the Devils picking up a  4-3 win.</li><li>Take the Devils on the moneyline</li><li>On the spread, we like Flames (+1.5)</li></ul><h3>Do the Flames Stand a Chance in Newark?</h3><p>Calgary’s 4-2 loss to the Oilers moved their record to 31-25-11. The Flames fell behind early, allowing a goal just 20 seconds into the first period. As +1.5 goal underdogs, Calgary failed to cover the puck line, and the total of 6 goals came in just under the pre-game line of 6.5.</p> <p>After trailing 2-0, the Flames tied it up with goals in the second and third periods, but the Oilers responded with two more, including an empty-netter with 3 seconds left. Anthony Mantha and Yegor Sharangovich were the goal scorers for Calgary.</p><p>Calgary fired 31 shots on goal but only managed to find the net twice in their 4-2 loss to Edmonton. Anthony Mantha scored his fourth goal of the season on a power play, while Yegor Sharangovich added his first goal, tying the game 2-2 in the third period.</p> <p>The Flames had 22 giveaways and were held scoreless in the first period. They got on the board with Mantha's goal 4:33 into the second period. Tyson Barrie picked up his first assist of the season, and Mikael Backlund added his fourth. Kevin Bahl also contributed with his fifth assist on Sharangovich’s goal.</p><p>Defensively, the Flames will look to bounce back after giving up the first two goals in their previous game against the Oilers. They had tied the game at 2-2, but their defense allowed two more goals, including one with 10:10 left in the 3rd period and an empty netter with just 3 seconds remaining. Dan Vladar made 27 saves, posting a 90% save percentage, and the defense added 4 takeaways and 13 hits.</p><h3>Can New Jersey Secure a Home Victory?</h3><p>New Jersey’s 3-0 loss to the Flames dropped the Devils to 37-26-6 this season. The game was scoreless until the third period, when the Flames scored three times.</p> 

<p>As -1.5 goal favorites, New Jersey failed to cover the puck line. The total was set at 6.5 goals, but the combined score of 3 fell well short of that figure.</p><p>New Jersey’s offense struggled in their 3-0 loss to Calgary, failing to find the net despite taking 22 shots on goal. They were shut out for the first time this season and had 19 giveaways.</p> <p>The Devils were held scoreless through all three periods, including a 0-0 tie after two. They had no power play goals or assists in the game.</p><p>New Jersey's defense held strong through the first two periods, but they gave up three goals in the third, leading to a 3-0 loss to Calgary. The first goal came at 5:34 in the third, followed by another at 14:54, and an empty-netter at 16:45. The Devils' defense finished with 5 takeaways and 22 hits.</p>

Calgary Flames vs New Jersey Devils Betting Pick & Prediction 3/20/25

<strong>Reverse Line Movement</strong> - If you've heard the term but don't know what it's referencing, then in a few hundred words you will. Remember, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. So, here we go.

These days there are any number of sites that publish the ticket count for games, which is exactly what it says, ticket count. Specifically, the number of bets on the game and <a href="http://bangthebook.com/fading-betting-public-perceptions-realities/"><strong>betting consensus</strong></a>. Often times you will see cases where there are far more tickets on one team than the other, and yet the line is moving away from the team with more bets. That means there is more MONEY on the team with less tickets.

Here's an the rotation for May 15th.

<img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-406200" src="http://bangthebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/odds-300x150.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="150" />

The column marked "spread" is the run line, and obviously the <a href="http://bangthebook.com/value-betting-mlb-baseball-run-line/"><strong>ML column reflects the money line</strong></a>. I don't think I need to explain "total." As you can see, the Astros are attracting 73% of the ML tickets, and yet after opening at -118 they are down to -109. The same can be said for Toronto, grabbing 87% of the tickets yet moving down to -131. Quite simply, that is RLM.

However, there's more to it. First of all there are only 1086 tickets on the Houston game, which isn't much. For comparison's sake an NFL game will have tens of thousands of tickets on it. You've also got to factor in the time of day, since often times a syndicate will move a line one way, knowing they want to come back and take the other side at a better number. That's more common than you might think.

Since there are multiple sites with bet percentages, you'll often see different numbers on the same game. You might ask how is that possible, and I'll give you the answer. Most sites have affiliations with a specific set of sportsbooks, so they'll get different numbers. Each cross-section of <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/us/"><strong>sportsbooks</strong></a> might be different. So, if you're going to use these numbers it's advisable to use the same site over and over, because over time you will see patterns, and that's what we're looking for.

I get asked fairly often how many tickets is enough to make a judgment call, and the answer is always different. Obviously in baseball there are going to be less tickets, so the baseline will differ. The time of day matters, so you've got to "take readings" at similar times.

As I spoke about earlier, it's not uncommon for a service to give out the team with the reverse line movement in their favor, and typically late in the day. Actually, it's quite common. You don't need a service to tell you that. More importantly, if you're late to the party you are just not (ever) going to get the best number. That doesn't mean we shouldn't bet the game.

If you're going to use this method on your own, you've got to do one of two things. Either develop yourself a baseline of parameters as to what is and what is not a bet, or alternatively bet them all. The reason for betting them all is that there is no way you (or anyone, for that matter) can truly tell you what is and what is not sharp money every single time. You're using a system is all.

It can work, but don't be fooled by people telling you they are truly handicapping a game when they're giving these picks out an hour before first pitch. To be brutally honest, I'll follow some of them myself, but I'll make it clear that that's what we're doing, because many recreational bettors don't even have the time to look themselves.

Dave Essler is a handicapper from Pregame, featured on ESPN, Fox Sports, CNN, &amp; more.
​

Reverse Line Movement Betting Strategy

<p>Planning on watching today's Bobcats and Eagles game? Catch the action at Reese Court in Cheney, WA, as the Eagles hosts this showdown at 5:00 ET on ESPN+. The over/under for this game is set at 155 points, and Eastern Washington is favored by -10.5 vs. Montana State in a Big Sky conference matchup.</p><h3>MONTANA STATE BOBCATS VS EASTERN WASHINGTON EAGLES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Montana State Bobcats +10.5</p><p>This game will be played at Reese Court at 5:00 ET on Saturday, March 2nd.</p><h3>WHY BET THE MONTANA STATE BOBCATS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Eagles.</li><li>Even though we have Eastern Washington winning straight-up, we like Montana State at +10.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 155 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.</li></ul><h3>Will Montana State Make it Happen on the Road?</h3><p>Montana State has a record of 13-16 this season and they are 8-8 in Big Sky Conference games. On the road, the Bobcats have gone 4-9, and they are 6-10 as the underdog.</p>

<p>In their last game, Montana State took down Idaho by a score of 62-48. Over their last 10 games away from home, they have gone 3-7.</p><p>Montana State has been an underdog in 16 games this season, and they have gone 9-7 against the spread in those games. On the road, the Bobcats have an ATS mark of 7-6 this year and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games vs. the spread away from home.</p><p>This season, the over/under record for Montana State games is 13-13 and today's line of 155 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (143.1). Over their last three games, their games have averaged 125 points.</p><p>The Montana State offense is coming off a game where they scored 62 points against Idaho. They posted a field goal percentage of 46.9% and connected on 8 threes. On the offensive front, the Bobcats have a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, ranking 129th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 72nd in terms of percentage and 76th in three-pointers made.</p><p>The Bobcats' defense is presently ranked 203rd nationally, allowing an average of 73.2 points per contest. Against Idaho, the Bobcats' defense gave up 48 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Idaho only made 7 free-throws.</p><h3>Will the Eagles Secure A Victory as Home Favorites?</h3><p>Eastern Washington has been dominant at home this season, going 8-1 with an average scoring margin of +11.6 points per game. They have won their last two games and are 13-3 as the favorite this season. The Eagles are 19-10 overall and 13-3 in Big Sky play.</p>

<p>Montana State enters this game as the underdog, and they have gone 4-7 in that role this season. Eastern Washington's average scoring margin at home is +11.6, compared to -2.6 on the road.</p><p>Eastern Washington has an overall ATS record of 18-9 this season. At home, they are 5-4 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Eagles are 4-6 vs. the spread. Their ATS record vs. the spread when favored this season is 10-6.</p><p>This season, the over/under record for Eastern Washington games is 17-9-1. So far, the average scoring total in their games is 154.8 points, which is 4.4 points higher than the average over/under line of 150.4. Today's over/under line of 155 is similar to the average scoring total in their last three games (158 points) and their last five games (164 points). Over their last 10 games, their over/under record is 6-3-1.</p><p>Coming off their recent game, the Eastern Washington offense tallied 89 points in a matchup against Montana. Their field goal percentage for the game was 53.6%, and they made 5 threes. Offensively, the Eagles hold a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, placing them 28th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 47th in terms of percentage and 60th in three-pointers made.</p><p>So far, the Eagles' defense is ranked 222nd in the country at 73.8 points per contest. In today's game vs. Montana State, the Eastern Washington defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Eastern Washington made 24 free-throws vs. the Eagles.</p>

Montana State Bobcats vs Eastern Washington Eagles Betting Pick & Prediction 3/2/24

As we know, in-game wagering is evolving on a regular basis. Professional bettors are utilizing it perhaps more than the full-game, set-it-and-forget-it bets. Now, if you're just throwing some milk-money on games for action, that's one thing. If you're truly trying to grow your bankroll, it's quite another.

If you have the time and are following your bets as they're being played out, there's no reason you shouldn't be progressive.

A lot of very successful bettors I know bet nothing but bet first-five innings in baseball. They can be much easier to handicap simply because we're taking the bullpens completely out of the equation. But, there's much more to it than that. They create more opportunities for <a href="http://bangthebook.com/tips-play-wagering-live-betting-sports/"><strong>in-game wagering</strong></a> at some great prices with very little risk, if any.

Last night's game in Washington between the Orioles and Nationals is a textbook example to use. We had taken the "over" for first five innings and had it won when the Orioles scored in the top of the fifth inning to take a 5-1 lead. But, at the time Wade Miley had already thrown 100 pitches, and the Orioles bullpen had been abused the last two nights. We knew Washington would at least have chances somewhere along the line if they could shut down Baltimore. They did and of course won the game in the ninth.

We bet the Nationals to win the game, live wagering. A double win for us at a great price.

That was clearly the best case scenario, and of course they don't all work out that well. But wait, there's more. Let's look at totals for a minute. Let's assume we bet a game to go "over" 8 runs. In the first two innings they've got five runs so we're looking great. We've got that ticket cashed! Well, maybe we do and maybe we don't, because we all know that games like that often end 4-3.

But, rather than think we've got it won, let's think how we might maximize that position we're in. The new in-game total that the book throws up between innings might be twelve. Well, if that game had "12" written on it before it started we'd have bet heavily on the under, more than likely. So, why wouldn't we take an in-game under and have a shot to middle, or hit both sides? Especially if we're not involving half-runs, because we could easily "push" one and win one.

The point here is that we cannot limit our thinking. Yes, if you're a recreational bettor with two small children and a job, that does create a higher degree of difficulty, which is why finding a <a href="http://bangthebook.com/touts-thoughts-buying-sports-picks/"><strong>"good tout"</strong></a> might help. But, if you have the time there is no reason why you wouldn't want to be looking for opportunities. They don't happen every game, or even every night. But they present themselves in a big way if you're paying attention.

We know that a very small percentage of people make money gambling. That is in spite of claims to the contrary, and I am actually a tout. A tout that's trying to help educate people. If Apple comes out with an iPhone 8, people will line up for the newest thing, or at the very least explore it. If a bookmaker offers something new and different, at the very least you owe it to yourself to explore it.

If you don't know, ask. The saying that there are not stupid questions, only stupid answers, definitely applies. I ask people that are much sharper than me in some niche's a question almost every day.

Remember, think long term and act short term. It's the only way and there are no shortcuts.

Dave Essler is a professional handicapper from Pregame, featured on ESPN, CNN, Fox Sports, and more.

Strategy for Betting Live In Game and First 5 Innings