St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Free Pick 10/03/19

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The Atlanta Braves are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS. The series gets officially underway at 5:02 p.m. ET and the game will be televised on TBS.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves Odds

Atlanta (-125) is hosting this one as the favorite against St. Louis (+115) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this day game at 8 runs (-125 for the over and +105 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Cardinals +1.5 (-180) and Braves -1.5 (+160).

In the regular season, the Braves are 97-65 straight up (SU) and 80-82 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 17.4 units for moneyline bettors while earning 2.6 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 91-71 SU and have gone 85-77 against the spread. They’re up 4.3 units for moneyline gamblers and 4.5 units ATS. St. Louis is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.

Atlanta games have an over/under record of 78-76-8 in 2019. The Cardinals have been a great under bet with a total record of 67-83-12.

Miles Mikolas will get the start for the Cards. The right-handed Mikolas is 9-14 with a 4.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with nine strikeouts and a 3.86 ERA against Atlanta this year.

The Braves are handing the ball to lefty Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA), who has 91 strikeouts and 39 walks as well as a 1.37 WHIP. Keuchel hasn’t faced the Cardinals yet this year and did not record a start against them in 2018.

As a unit, Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.6 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starters have a 4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.3 K/9.

The Atlanta offense is putting up 5.3 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game over its last 10 games and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .265/.346/.416 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

The Braves’ offense has been led by second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Freddie Freeman. Albies is slashing .295/.352/.500 with 24 home runs, 86 RBIs, 102 runs and 15 stolen bases, while Freeman is hitting .295 with 38 homers, 121 RBIs and 113 runs.

In the other dugout, St. Louis’ pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 8.07 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.88, along with a WHIP of 1.30 and a K/9 of 9.74.

Cardinals hitters have slashed .245/.324/.415 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game this year, including 5.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and second baseman Kolten Wong continue to lead St. Louis’ hitters. Goldschmidt is slashing .260/.346/.476 with 34 home runs, 97 RBIs and 97 runs scored, while Wong is hitting .285/.361/.423 with 11 homers, 59 RBIs, 61 runs and 24 steals.

The Cardinals have lost 1.2 units and are 16-18 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 19 of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 13.3 units and are 62-63 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 59 of those games, compared to 61 that went under the total.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

St. Louis has tallied 14 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Atlanta has 15 XBH over its last five.

The Cardinals have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 12 over their last 10.

The Cardinals have an OPS of .739 this season, including an OPS of .763 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .791 overall and .781 against lefties.

Atlanta has recorded 20.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.4 over its last five.

The Braves have dropped five of their last six games SU.

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