Spanish La Liga Match of the Day Round 5 – Villarreal vs. Valencia (9/23/18)


The 46th Derbi de la Comunitat takes place this weekend with Villarreal looking to maintain their excellent recent record against their more illustrious neighbors of just one defeat in the last seven meetings (W5, D1, L1), including three-straight wins. The game between Villarreal and Valencia will take place at the Estadio de la Ceramica on September 23rd, 2018.


Three-Way: 1: Villarreal +125; X: +225 Draw; 2: Valencia +229 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Villarreal -102; Valencia -105

Total 3.5 goals: Over -135; Under +129


Normally good at home, ending last season with three wins and a draw, Villarreal have lost both home games this season and sit in the 14th position (W1, D1, L2). With just two goals this season in La Liga, only two sides have scored less (Betis and Valladolid).

A 2-2 midweek draw in the Europa League at home to Rangers came after Villarreal’s first win of the La Liga season last weekend at Leganes, but considering that they were ahead twice in the clash with the Scottish side, the final outcome was disappointing for the Yellow Submarine. Carlos Bacca opened the scoring in the 1st minute, while Gerard Moreno scored the second goal for the hosts but Scott Arfield and Kyle Lafferty salvaged a point for the visitors who were more than happy with a point in the bag.

Betting Trends:

  • All four Villarreal games this season have been draws at half-time
  • The victory here would mark Villarreal’s best ever winning streak against Valencia


A draw here would mark three on the bounce in La Liga for Valencia, a feat last achieved at the same stage last season, just before the side went on an eight-game winning streak. Valencia probably had high hopes after last season’s efforts, but things haven’t gone to plan and the club sit the fourth bottom with no wins (D3, L1). A midweek home loss in the Champions League to ten-man Juventus won’t have lifted the mood for a side that has now just one goal in three competitive home games.

The Bats had an extra man since the 29th minute when Cristiano Ronaldo received his first-ever Champions League red card, but despite attempting 28 shots on goal, they suffered a humbling 2-0 defeat, courtesy of Miralem Pjanic who scored a brace from the penalty spot.

Betting Trends:

  • Valencia failed to score in three out of their last five matches
  • Valencia won just one out of the previous six away games in La Liga

Villarreal won five out of the previous six H2H encounters including the last three, while the Yellow Submarine was victorious in two out of the past three meetings at the Estadio de la Ceramica. Villarreal is without a home victory in the last three matches in La Liga, while neither team experienced a good start of this campaign, so I am backing a draw on this one as I cannot select a winner.

MY PICK: Draw (+225)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Six of the last seven H2Hs have produced under 2.5 goals with just one side scoring, but there’s only ever been one 0-0 La Liga result between the sides in 36 games, and never at Villarreal, so I am pretty sure this one will not finish without goals. I am not impressed with their respective defenses, so I am backing both teams to score.

MY PICK: Both teams to score YES (-137)