South Alabama vs. Troy College Football Betting Pick 10/16/19


The South Alabama Jaguars and Troy Trojans will go head-to-head on the turf at Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN2 and kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.

South Alabama at Troy Betting Odds 10/16/2019

Troy is favored by 15 points in this SBC game. The Jaguars are currently getting +510 moneyline odds while the Trojans are -750. There will likely be some decent live betting scenarios while the game’s taking place.

The Jaguars are 1-5 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Trojans are 2-3 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play. The Jaguars are down 3.0 units so far in 2019 and 3-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-5.

The Trojans have lost 3.5 units this season. The team is 1-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-2.

The Jaguars came up short to Georgia Southern 20-17 in a game where their defense allowed the Eagles to run for 310 yards on 66 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Shai Werts had a good day for the opposition in that one with 102 rushing yards on 20 attempts. On the offensive side, Cephus Johnson completed just eight passes on 15 attempts for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Tra Minter (45 rushing yards on 17 attempts) mounted the ground attack in the loss. Kawaan Baker (four receptions, 126 yards, one TD) and Minter (three catches, eight yards) shared the receiving duties.

Troy most recently suffered a 42-10 loss to Missouri. The defense allowed the Tigers to run for 165 yards on 36 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Kam Scott had a solid showing, recording 88 yards on five catches for Missouri. As a group, the Trojans collectively completed 20-of-35 passes for 150 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Kaleb Barker went 15-for-26 for 92 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while Gunnar Watson was five-of-nine for 58 yards. Trevon Woolfolk (62 rushing yards on 18 attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Reggie Todd (six receptions, 44 yards) and Kaylon Geiger (four catches, 22 yards) led the receiving attack.

South Alabama has run the ball on 64.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Troy has an overall rush percentage of 46 percent. The Jaguars have produced 170 rush yards/game (including 158 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have seven scores via handoffs this year. The Trojans are averaging 149 rushing yards per contest and have seven total rush TDs.

It appears that the Trojans ought to own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has produced 4.3 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 2.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Jaguars have rushed for 4.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.6 to opponents.

The Jags have averaged 149 yards in the air overall (154 per game versus conference opposition) and have six passing scores so far. The Trojans have put up 304 pass yards per outing and have 14 total pass TDs.

Defensively, South Alabama should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 201 yards and throw for 199 yards per game. Troy has allowed 93.8 rushing yards per game and 308.6 to opponents in the air. The Jags are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.49 to opposing QBs, while the Trojans have given up a staggering 9.56 ANY/A.

Johnson is up to 594 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 46-of-86 attempts with five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Johnson has a 4.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.00 over the last two outings.

Tra Minter (327 rushing yards, two rush TDs, 122 receiving yards this season), Kawaan Baker (332 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Jalen Tolbert (174 receiving yards, one TD) have all played significant roles of late.

Kaleb Barker has accounted for 1,092 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs for Troy. His ANY/A sits at 7.86 for the season and 4.62 over his past two outings.

Reggie Todd (183 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), DK Billingsley (247 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Kaylon Geiger (299 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined for 423 total yards and two touchdowns over the last two games.

When these two squads faced one another a year ago, Troy knocked South Alabama off by three touchdowns 38-17.

South Alabama Jaguars vs. Troy Trojans Free Pick

SU Winner – South Alabama, ATS Winner – South Alabama


Team Betting Notes

The Jaguars offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Trojans have accounted for five such plays.

The South Alabama defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Troy has given up 11 such plays.

The South Alabama offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Troy has created five such run.

The Jaguars defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Trojans have given up one such run.

The Troy defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times this year. South Alabama has registered nine sacks.

South Alabama has produced 4.0 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.2 over its last two.

Troy has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.1 over its last two.

Over its last three games, Troy is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for South Alabama’s last game was 44.5. The under cashed in the team’s 20-17 defeat to Georgia Southern.

Over its last three games, South Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The Over/Under for Troy’s last matchup was 65.5. The under cashed in the 42-10 loss to Missouri.

Troy has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 28-point win over Akron on September 21st accounting for the only victory over that stretch.


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