Serie A Match of the Day Round 4 – Napoli vs. Fiorentina (9/15/18)

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Napoli is looking for redemption in front of their own fans following a heavy defeat to Sampdoria, but the visitors collected maximum points out of two games and will be a tough nut to crack on this one. The game between Napoli and Fiorentina will take place at the Stadio San Paolo on September 15th, 2018.

NAPOLI vs. FIORENTINA

Three-Way: 1: Napoli -175; X: +320 Draw; 2: Fiorentina +475 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1: Napoli +100; Fiorentina -109

Total 3 goals: Over +100; Under -119

NAPOLI

With two second-place finishes and a third in the last three years, Napoli will surely mount another challenge this season under the ‘old warhorse’ Carlo Ancelotti. After starting the season in fine fashion with victories over Lazio and Milan, Napoli came unstuck at Sampdoria last time out, suffering a shocking 3-0 defeat.

That loss was just their second reversal in the last 14 Serie A games (W8, D4, L2), while at home they remain strong with only two losses in the last 25 league games (W19, D4, L2). Still, a defeat to Sampdoria raised eyebrows and Napoli practically has an imperative to beat the Lilies on Saturday, so another failure would not go well with the fans.

Betting Trends:

  • Napoli conceded first in each of their three games this season
  • Napoli scored two or more goals in six out of the last seven games at home

FIORENTINA

The Viola won their opening two games 14 times since their first Serie A participation in 1931/32, but on seven of those occasions, they have drawn their third game while losing five. Yet if they do win, they’ll have a chance to match their best ever start to a season of four-straight wins achieved in 1998/99 and 1969/70.

The recent 1-0 home win over Udinese confirmed Fiorentina’s perfect start, but history shows they are unlikely to win this one. Still, Stefano Pioli’s side is playing well and they dominated the latest game against Udinese as Marco Benassi gave them three points with a goal in the 73rd minute to make it two out of two.

Betting Trends:

  • Fiorentina have scored first in seven of their last eight away games
  • Fiorentina scored at least a goal in eight out of their previous nine Serie A games on the road

Napoli won seven out of the previous 12 H2H encounters including two out of the last four, while the Little Donkeys were victorious in four out of the past five meetings at the Stadio San Paolo. What’s more, these sides have played four times in Serie A during September since 1983/84 and Napoli are unbeaten (W3, D1). I am backing the hosts to bounce back from a disappointing display at Sampdoria but I am not sure they will beat Fiorentina by more than one goal.

MY PICK: AH Fiorentina +1 (-109)

ADDITIONAL PICK: The historical Serie A goals per game average for this fixture is 2.30, below the all-time SerieA average of 2.54 dating back to 1929/30. Let’s speak about the recent history, though, as only two out of the last nine H2H tilts produced more than three goals, so I am backing under 3 on this one.

MY PICK: Under 3 goals (-119)