Serie A Match of the Day Round 32 – Milan vs. Lazio (4/13/19)


The Rossoneri are not playing well recently and Lazio will be looking for a chance to get three points as six teams are fighting for the remaining two UCL spots. The game between Milan and Lazio will take place at the Stadio San Siro on April 13th, 2019.


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Three-Way: 1: Milan +160; X: +229 Draw; 2: Lazio +175 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Milan -112; Lazio +104

Total 2.5 goals: Over +100; Under -125


Currently winless in four league matches (D1, L3), AC Milan’s top four chances have taken a real hit recently. Despite boasting the fifth best defense in Serie A (SA), a pressing issue of late for Gennaro Gattuso’s side has been a leaky back four – his team has failed to keep a clean sheet in five top-flight fixtures.

Another problem for Milan across their last four games has been a lack of goals. They have averaged just one goal per game during that period, yet in the four league games prior to that, they were averaging 2.25 per match. Notably, of the 13 goals Milan scored across those combined eight games, eight arrived in the second half.

The Rossoneri got to a 1-0 lead against the weakened Juventus side on the road but the Old Lady responded through Paulo Dybala and Moise Kean in the second half to give Juve a 2-1 victory.

Gennaro Gattuso will be without Giacomo Bonaventura (knee), Andrea Conti (thigh), Gianluigi Donnarumma (muscle), and Lucas Paqueta (ankle).

Betting Trends:

  • There haven’t been many better strikers in Europe this season than Milan’s Krzysztof Piatek, he has three goals in his last five league matches
  • Milan conceded 68.75% of their home league goals in the second half


Lazio travel here having won three of their previous six league matches (W3, D2, L1). Despite only conceding five goals in that period, all five arrived in the second half, showing a fragility after half-time. However, impressively their average of 1.83 goals scored per match across that six-game period is an improvement on their overall season average of 1.47 per match.

Although they lost just once in the last seven games, Lazio is without a win in the previous two and they barely salvaged a point at home against Sassuolo. Ciro Immobile opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 53rd minute but Rogerio and Domenico Berardi gave the visitors a 2-1 lead before Senad Lulic equalized in the 95th minute to make it 2-2.

Simone Inzaghi cannot count on Jordan Lukaku who is out with a knee injury, while Valon Berisha is doubtful with an illness.

Betting Trends:

  • Lazio’s star forward Ciro Immobile has three goals in his previous five SA matches – two of which came from the penalty spot
  • There have been four penalties awarded across Lazio’s previous six SA matches

Milan won four of the previous ten H2H encounters and is unbeaten in the last five, while the Rossoneri were victorious in two of the past three meetings at the Stadio San Siro. This fixture often favors a draw as the outcome. In the previous seven competitive meetings, this match has finished as a stalemate on five occasions, with each side winning one apiece. I am not impressed with Milan’s form of late and I am going with a draw in this one as well.

MY PICK: Draw (+229)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Seven out of the previous ten H2H duels produced under 2.5 goals including the last four and I don’t expect to see more than two goals here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a goalless stalemate and that’s why I am going with under.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 (-125)