Serie A Match of the Day Round 29 – Inter vs. Lazio (3/31/19)

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A 3-2 away victory in the Milan derby last time out will have Inter in high spirits for the visit of Lazio, a team they’ve beaten in four of the previous five Serie A H2H matches (W4, D1). The game between Inter and Lazio will take place at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on March 31st, 2019.

INTER vs. LAZIO

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Three-Way: 1: Inter +129; X: +229 Draw; 2: Lazio +220 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Inter -141; Lazio +129

Total 2.5 goals: Over +100; Under -120

INTER

The hosts are unbeaten in nine of their last ten home league games (W8, D1, L1), conceding just two goals across those fixtures – more than three times less than any other team during that period.

However, Inter hasn’t scored much themselves, netting an average of just 1.62 goals per SA home match this season. As such, games at the Giuseppe Meazza have seen a joint-league-low average of 2.08 match goals per fixture. If the Nerazzurri do hit the net, it could be late on – Inter scored 47.62% of their home league goals after the 75th minute.

Inter responded to Europa League elimination in the best way possible as they beat the city rivals Milan in the previous round of Serie A. Matias Vecino scored the opening goal in the 3rd minute before Stefan de Vrij doubled Inter’s lead early in the second half and even though Tiemoue Bakayoko scored his first goal for Milan to cut Inter’s lead, Lautaro Martinez restored a two-goal lead from the penalty spot in the 67th minute. Mateo Musacchio did make it 3-2 with 20 minutes to go but Inter secured three points and surpassed Milan in the standings.

Luciano Spalletti will be without Sime Vrsaljko (knee), while Mauro Icardi (knee), Radja Nainggolan (calf), and Stefan de Vrij (thigh) are listed as doubtful to face Lazio.

Betting Trends:

  • Lautaro Martínez netted for Argentina over the international break and has scored in two of his last three SA games, while four of his previous five league goals arrived after half-time
  • Inter still didn’t concede a goal within the first 30 minutes of any SA home match
  • Over half (53.85%) of Inter’s SA home fixtures have been goalless at half-time

LAZIO

Lazio conceded just three goals during this period across their SA away games this season, but have won just one of their last four road trips (W1, D1, L2).

Additionally, with both teams scoring in three of the visitors’ last four SA matches, and six of the last eight top-flight H2Hs held here, this game could be destined for goals at both ends.

Lazio is unbeaten in last four games and they didn’t have problems in the latest league clash with Parma at home as they secured a comfortable 4-1 victory. Adam Marusic, Luis Alberto with a brace, and Senad Lulic all scored in the opening 45 minutes, while Mattia Sprocati only softened defeat with a goal in the 77th minute.

Simone Inzaghi cannot count on Jordan Lukaku who is out with a knee injury but all the other payers are healthy and raring to go on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • Ciro Immobile leads Lazio’s SA scoring charts (13 goals) but last scored against Inter in SA back in 2013/14 as a then Torino player
  • There have been goals scored in both halves in Lazio’s last four SA matches

Inter won five of the previous ten H2H encounters including the reverse fixture this season when they beat Lazio 3-0 in Rome, but the Nerazzurri are without a win in the past three meetings at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. However, Lazio failed to get three points in their last three road matches and it’s going to be hard to get a win here, and I am going with a draw despite the fact that the rivals only drew once in the last ten H2H duels.

MY PICK: Draw (+229)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Nine of the previous 12 H2H matches produced at least three goals and Lazio must attack from the start here, so I expect to see goals on both ends. The +125 odds for over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring are rather attractive and I am not going to pass on the opportunity to make a profit here.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 and YES (+125)