Serie A Match of the Day Round 24 – Inter vs. Sampdoria (2/17/19)

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The Black and Blues responded to a four-game winless run with a couple of wins and they will remain in the 3rd spot in Serie A whatever happens in this one. The game between Inter and Sampdoria will take place at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on February 17th, 2019.

INTER vs. SAMPDORIA

Three-Way: 1: Inter -182; X: +300 Draw; 2: Sampdoria +550 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1: Inter +104; Sampdoria -114

Total 2.5 goals: Over -120; Under +100

INTER

Goals could be at a premium in this Serie A encounter, as no less than 17 of Inter Milan’s 23 league matches this season have seen at least one team keep a clean sheet. Inter themselves have 12, and five in their last ten league games. Relevantly, nine of Inter’s 11 SA home games have seen a clean sheet from either side or ended 0-0.

However, it should be noted that Inter has sustained three of their overall six league losses in their last ten SA outings (W4, D3, L3). The home form remains solid though, as only three sides have more home points than Inter, who have seven wins in their last ten SA home fixtures (W7, D1, L2).

Inter bounced back from a four-game winless run with a pair of narrow road victories over Parma and most recently, Rapid Vienna in the opening leg of the Europa League 1/16 finals as Lautaro Martinez scored the game’s only goal from the penalty spot in the 39th minute.

Luciano Spalletti will be without Sime Vrsaljko who is out with a knee injury, while Mauro Icardi is questionable to face Sampdoria for the same reason.

Betting Trends:

  • Lautaro Martinez has five goals in his last ten competitive games
  • Inter scored 13 of their 32 SA season goals (40.63%) after the 75th minute

SAMPDORIA

Sampdoria’s league matches also have a form for clean sheets, with 12 of their 23 SA clashes this season witnessing a clean sheet either way or ending goalless. Yet, with three losses in their last five league games (W1, D1, L3), they are on the brink of falling away from the top six for good.

The visitors’ away form makes for grim reading with just one win in eight SA trips (W1, D3, L4), no clean sheet and 20 goals conceded. In fact, they remain the joint-fifth worst defense in the away SA table with 21 conceded on the road overall.

Sampdoria failed to score in the last two games which they lost and although a 3-0 defeat to Napoli on the road came as no surprise, a 1-0 loss to Frosinone at home surely was. Daniel Ciofani scored the only goal in the 25th minute and that was the lone shot on target from the visitors, while the hosts had 69 percent of ball possession and seven attempts on target but couldn’t find the back of the net.

Marco Giampaolo doesn’t have any new injury-related concerns as almost all of the players are healthy and ready to go as only Gianluca Caprari is doubtful as he is recovering from a broken leg.

Betting Trends:

  • Fabio Quagliarella has five SA goals against Inter – four of them away from home
  • A majority (seven) of Sampdoria’s 12 SA away games have been level at half-time
  • Sampdoria scored 24 of their 39 SA season goals (61.54%) after the break

Inter won six out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1, L3) including the last three, while the Black and Blues were victorious in four of the past five meetings at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Inter also beat Sampdoria in the first duel of this season when Marcelo Brozovic scored a winner in the 94th minute and although the visitors will be looking for revenge here, I am backing the home team to get a victory. Now, I don’t think they will destroy Sampdoria and I am going with the visitors to cover the +1 spread, so in case Inter get a one-goal victory, we will get our stake back.

MY PICK: AH +1 Sampdoria (-114)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Three of the previous four H2H meetings produced three or more goals and Sampdoria conceded two or more in each of their last five road games, and I am backing Inter to score at least two but I also expect the visitors to contribute with minimum one. That’s why I am backing BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (+125)

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