Serie A Match of the Day Round 22 – Roma vs. Milan (2/3/19)


The gap between the two rivals is only one point and the winner of this tilt will have a better chance to reach the champions league next season. The game between Roma and Milan will take place at the Stadio Olimpico on February 3rd, 2019.


Three-Way: 1: Roma +114; X: +250 Draw; 2: Milan +240 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Roma +110; Milan -143

Total 2.5 goals: Over -139; Under +114


Roma rode the Serie A rollercoaster at Atalanta last week as the highs of being 3-0 up after 40 minutes quickly disappeared as they conceded three goals to no reply (3-3). That, followed by a 7-1 cup hammering at Fiorentina midweek – only the sixth time in Roma’s history they’ve conceded seven goals in a match – made it four consecutive games where the Giallorossi had seen four or more total goals.

However, with just one defeat at the Stadio Olimpico this SA campaign (W6, D3, L1), Roma will have confidence they can gain all three points. If they do, it probably won’t come with a clean sheet – five of their six league victories here have featured both teams scoring.

They are currently sitting in the 5th position in the league with 34 points, even 25 points behind the reigning champions and leaders Juventus, but only one behind their next opponents Milan, while Roma is a couple of points ahead of the city rivals Lazio.

Eusebio Di Francesco will be without Bryan Cristante and Steven N’Zonzi who are both suspended; Juan Jesus (knee) and Cengiz Under (thigh) are out with injuries, while Diego Perotti is questionable due to a muscle injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Stephan El Shaarawy netted in Roma’s last two SA games following an injury layoff, bringing his league tally to seven for the season
  • There have been over 1.5 first-half goals in 60% of Roma’s SA home matches


Unbeaten in five Serie A road trips (W2, D3), AC Milan should make this a tough encounter. With only Juventus conceding fewer goals on the road than Milan’s eight, the visitors could be the team to stop Roma’s often rampant attack.

Just four goals have been scored across the combined first halves of Milan’s ten SA away fixtures this campaign, so a cagey beginning wouldn’t be surprising. However, the Rossoneri have a habit of opening up games after the break, with 75% of their away goals scored, and 87.5% conceded, during the second half.

Milan reached the semi-finals of Coppa Italia after a 2-0 home victory over Napoli as their newly arrived striker Krzysztof Piatek bagged a brace in the opening 30 minutes of the tilt, which turned out to be the final score of the game.

Gennaro Gattuso cannot count on Lucas Biglia (calf), Giacomo Bonaventura (knee), Mattia Caldara (calf), and Pepe Reina (muscle), while Cristian Zapata is doubtful to play on Sunday due to a thigh injury.

Betting Trends:

  • New signing Krzysztof Piatek netted 13 goals for Genoa this season before Milan splurged a reported 35 million euros on the Polish hitman – and he scored twice on his full debut in the cup
  • 60% of Milan’s SA away fixtures have been 0-0 at half-time

Roma won five out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D2, L3) but Milan won the last two, while the Giallorossi were victorious in three of the past six meetings at the Stadio Olimpico. It’s going to be a tight affair that could go either way and although Roma has been playing well in front of their own fans, Milan drew even five of their ten away games in Serie A this season and that’s why I am backing a draw in this one.

MY PICK: Draw (+250)

ADDITIONAL PICK: The last five H2Hs held here featured under 2.5 goals and this matchup is not the one to bet on the over 2.5 goals as six of the last ten duels produced under 2.5 goals, and that’s why I am backing a low-scoring tilt and under.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 (+114)