Serie A Match of the Day Round 21 – Lazio vs. Juventus (1/27/19)

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In the chase for a Champions League qualification spot, the Eagles will face one of their toughest tests of the season as they host Serie A leaders, the Old Lady, who have won five of their previous six SA meetings against Lazio (W5, L1). The game between Lazio and Juventus will take place at the Stadio Olimpico on January 27th, 2019.

LAZIO vs. JUVENTUS

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Three-Way: 1: Lazio +320; X: +250 Draw; 2: Juventus -111 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +0.5: Lazio +100; Juventus -109

Total 2.5 goals: Over +100; Under -120

LAZIO

The Rome-based hosts are winless in their last two Serie A games (D1, L1) and have registered just two victories in their previous five league matches (W2, D1, L2). At home though, Lazio is unbeaten in 80% of their games (W5, D3, L2), and is currently undefeated in their last five matches here (W2, D3).

Lazio was on a four-game unbeaten run before they traveled to Napoli and faced the vice-champions who beat them, 2-1. Jose Callejon opened the scoring in the 34th minute while ArkadiuszMilik doubled Napoli’s lead only three minutes later. Ciro Immobile managed to cut the deficit to half in the 65th minute but Francesco Acerbi received the second yellow card with 20 minutes to go and the visitors didn’t have enough strength to avoid a defeat.

The Eagles are currently in the 6th position in the Serie A with 32 points, even 24 behind their next opponents and the league leaders Juventus, but only two behind Milan who is sitting in the 4th place that leads to the Champions League next season.

Simone Inzaghi will be without suspended Acerbi and Adam Marusic, while the rest of the squad is healthy and at the coach’s disposal for the Sunday’s game against the Old Lady.

Betting Trends:

  • Ciro Immobile has 11 goals in 20 Serie A appearances for Lazio
  • Lazio’s last eight matches (across all competitions) have seen both teams score

JUVENTUS

Juventus remains unbeaten during this current Serie A campaign (W18, D2) and also rank as the best away side in the competition with eight wins from nine matches (W8, D1). Only two sides have scored more goals than the visitors’ 19 on the road this term, while with just six conceded, Juve can boast SA’s best away defense.

Across all competitions, Juventus is undefeated in their previous seven trips to Lazio (W6, D1), winning each of the last five to nil. The Old Lady is currently on a four-game winning streak as they beat Sampdoria, Bologna (Coppa Italia), Milan (Super Cup), and most recently Chievo Verona in the league.

Douglas Costa and Emre Can scored first-half goals against Chievo; Cristiano Ronaldo missed the penalty in the 53rd minute but that didn’t affect the final outcome as Juve added another goal through Daniele Rugani in the 83rd minute to set the final result, 3-0.

Massimiliano Allegri cannot count on Andrea Barzagli (thigh) and Mario Mandzukic (thigh), while Mehdi Benatia (thigh), Joao Cancelo (calf), Juan Cuadrado (knee), Sami Khedira (knee), and Miralem Pjanic (calf) are listed as doubtful to face Lazio.

Betting Trends:

  • Ahead of this round, Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus) is one of three top scorers in Serie A with 14 goals
  • Seven of Juventus’ last eight away wins (in all competitions) have been accompanied by a clean sheet
  • Juventus didn’t concede a goal in the last three games

Juventus won eight out of the previous ten H2H games including the last two, while the Old Lady was victorious in the past five meetings at the Stadio Olimpico. Lazio’s last win over Juventus here occurred in January 2013 in Coppa Italia and they will be eager to finally snap the negative streak against Juve at home and even though the visitors will be without some integral players, I don’t think they will get a win and I am going with a draw here, especially because these sides haven’t drawn an H2H match in any of the past 19 competitive meetings (including extra-time).

MY PICK: Draw (+250)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Even nine out of the previous 11 H2H duels ended with under 2.5 goals but Lazio conceded in each of their last nine games at home and I am sure they will allow goal or two here, while I am also backing them to find the net. Although they didn’t score against Juve in the last two encounters, I am going with the hosts to score at least one and help us win the over 2.5 goals bet.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 (+100)