Serie A Match of the Day Round 20 – Napoli vs. Lazio (1/20/19)

0

Napoli remains unbeaten at home this league campaign (W8, D2), something only Serie A leaders Juventus can also boast. There’s every possibility that could continue here, as Lazio comes to town with just one win in their last four Serie A away games (W1, D2, L1). The game between Napoli and Lazio will take place at the Stadio San Paolo on January 20th, 2019.

NAPOLI vs. LAZIO

Three-Way: 1: Napoli -110; X: +260 Draw; 2: Lazio +300 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Napoli -108; Lazio +100

Total 2.5 goals: Over -125; Under +100

NAPOLI

Three clean sheets in their previous four home league fixtures (W3, D1) indicates how important a solid defense has been to Napoli this season. That’s been particularly clear in the last half-hour of games where the Naples outfit has conceded just one goal across ten home matches, whilst scoring 12 themselves – more than half (52%) their total home goal tally this campaign.

With 37 goals overall, Napoli is Serie A’s third-best attacking team and have managed to find the back of the net in 14 consecutive top-flight meetings with Lazio (W10, D2, L2). They bounce back from a 1-0 away loss to Inter with a pair of victories over Bologna, and most recently, over Sassuolo in Coppa Italia.

Arkadiusz Milik opened the scoring in the 15th minute and Fabian Ruiz sealed the win in the 74th minute as Napoli progressed to the quarter-finals of the domestic cup.

Carlo Ancelotti will be without Allan, Lorenzo Insigne, and Kalidou Koulibaly, who are all suspended for this clash, Marek Hamsik is out with a thigh injury, while Vlad Chiriches (knee) and Simone Verdi (illness) are listed as doubtful.

Betting Trends:

  • In-form Arkadiusz Milik has netted seven goals in his last six domestic appearances
  • Napoli scored in both halves in 50% of their Serie A home matches this season

LAZIO

The visitors have picked up four Serie A away wins (W4, D2, L3), with three of those accompanied by a clean sheet. Interestingly, Lazio’s matches have been a lot tighter on the road than at home this season, with just 22% of their away league games featuring over 2.5 goals, in contrast to 60% of their home matches.

If the team from Rome are to record their first SA win at Napoli since May 2015, it could come down to their second-half performance – 80% of Lazio’s away goals have come after the break. Lazio is without a loss in the previous four games and they showed strong display in the most recent 4-1 victory over Novara in Coppa Italia.

Lazio scored all four goals in the opening 45 minutes as Ciro immobile with a brace, and Luis Alberto and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic with a goal apiece helped their team to create a massive halftime lead, and the hosts could afford to relax in the second half and concede one goal.

Simone Inzaghi cannot count on Adam Marusic who is suspended for this game, while Felipe Caicedo (muscle) and Senad Lulic (knee) are listed as questionable for this tilt with Napoli.

Betting Trends:

  • Ciro Immobile’s ten Serie A goals put him seven ahead of Lazio’s next top scorer
  • Lazio has been losing 1-0 at half-time in four of their nine SA away games

Napoli won six out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1, L2) including the last four, while they were victorious in two out of the past three meetings at the Stadio San Paolo. Lazio is without a win here since May 2015 and although the hosts will be without several key performers, I don’t think the visitors will leave this venue with three points in the bag. Napoli won each of their last five home games but it’s not going to be easy in this one and I am backing a draw.

MY PICK: Draw (+260)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Six out of the previous eight H2H duels produced at least three goals and four out of the last five produced goals on both sides, and I believe that’s going to be the case here and that’s why I am backing BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (+110)

Leave a Reply