Serie A Match of the Day Round 12 – Milan vs. Juventus (11/11/18)

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Once immovable equals, these colossal north-western rivals clash for the 229th time in all competitions and the in-form Milan has an opportunity to cut the deficit to seven points with a potential victory here. The game between Milan and Juventus will take place at the Stadio San Siro on November 11th, 2018.

MILAN vs. JUVENTUS

Three-Way: 1: Milan +375; X: +275 Draw; 2: Juventus -139 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +0.5: Milan +116; Juventus -137

Total 2.5 goals: Over +100; Under -125

MILAN

Though Milan has fallen off the pace, the “Rossoneri” have been strong at the San Siro this season (W4, D1, L0) scoring 2+ goals in each of their last seven league games here. Albeit against weaker opposition than champions Juventus, Milan have also scored first in each of their last five home league games – but there is a cautionary overtone, as the visiting side has scored the second goal of the game on four occasions.

Gennaro Gattuso’s side is playing well recently as they are unbeaten in the last four matches in all competitions; three consecutive wins in the Serie A and the latest 1-1 draw with Betis on the road in the Europa League. Giovani Lo Celso gave the Spanish side a 1-0 lead in the 12th minute but Suso managed to equalize in the 62nd and set the final score. Milan is now sitting in the second position with seven points, one behind Betis, while they are leveled with Olympiakos and will likely decide who is going to continue in the knockout phase with the H2H clash in Athens in the final round.

Gennaro Gattuso cannot count on several key players including the former Juventus striker Gonzalo Higuain who is suffering from back injury. Also, the coach will be without Giacomo Bonaventura (knee), Davide Calabria (ankle), Lucas Biglia (calf), Mattia Caldara (Achilles tendon rupture), and Ivan Strinic (heart problems).

Betting Trends:

  • Milan won the first half in six of their last seven home league games
  • Milan failed to score just once in their 15 games in this season

JUVENTUS

Juventus got their first come-from-behind away win of the season on their last road trip. That win (2-1 win at Empoli – Oct 27) maintained their perfect record of five straight away league wins and also saw them score 2+ goals for the fifth away league game in succession.

The H2H history implies that Juventus will face no such comeback challenge in this one, having opened the scoring in each of their last six matches against Milan. Their first goal could well arrive ten minutes either side of the break, with the “Bianconeri” scoring at least once in the 35-55 minute zone in four of their last five league games.

Massimiliano Allegri’s side suffered the first defeat of the campaign as they fell short at home to Manchester United in the Champions League. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a well-taken volley in the 65th minute but the lucky visitors first equalized through Juan Mata in the 86th thanks to the Spaniard’s fantastic free-kick, while Leonardo Bonucci’s own goal handed the Red Devils an unlikely 2-1 victory.

Allegri doesn’t have big injury problems like Gattuso as he will be without Federico Bernardeschi (hip), Emre can (illness), and Douglas Costa (groin).

Betting Trends:

  • Cristiano Ronaldo has scored or assisted a goal in the second-half of Juventus’ last three matches (all competitions)
  • Juventus scored at least a goal in each of their 15 games in this campaign

Juventus’ record against Milan since January 2013 reads: W14, D1, L1 and they are on a five-game winning streak against Rossoneri, while the Old Lady lost at the San Siro only twice in the Serie A since 2012. Juve will be eager to respond to a surprising defeat to Man United but it’s not going to be easy against Milan who is without a home loss in the league this season. Gonzalo Higuain’s absence is a huge blow for the hosts and that could prove to be the major obstacle for Milan here, so I am going with Juventus.

MY PICK: Juventus (-139)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Four of the last five H2H meetings between these sides have produced over 2.5 goals, while both teams scored in four out of the previous five duels. It’s going to be hard for the hosts to score without their top scorer, so I am not convinced Milan will find the net here and therefore, I am not going to back BTTS here. Juve scored at least two goals in each of the last five H2H duels, so I wouldn’t be surprised they score three on this one, so I am backing over 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 (+100)