San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings NBA Expert Free Picks 02/04/19

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The Sacramento Kings (27-25; 30-21-1 ATS) are battling bravely to make it to the playoffs after a 12-year drought, sitting at the 9th spot of the Western Conference table just one game behind the Los Angeles Clippers. They’ve won two games in a row, beating the Hawks 135-113 and the Sixers 115-108, and will try to extend their streak when they welcome the Spurs Monday night. San Antonio (32-22; 31-23 ATS) is on a five-game winning streak following a 113-108 victory to the New Orleans Pelicans, sitting at the 5th spot of the conference four games ahead of the Kings.

These two foes will meet each other for the second time this season, and the Kings lead the series with a 104-99 victory as 2.5-point home dogs, while the Spurs have won 14 of their last 15 meetings with Sacramento.

Injuries/Suspensions

The Spurs will be without Derrick White (heel) who got injured against the Pelicans, while Dante Cunningham is listed as probable. On the other side, the Kings can count on all their players.

The Line

San Antonio opened as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 227.0 points and the Kings at +105 money line odds. Sacramento is 6-0 straight up and ATS in its last six games on the home court, and the under is 5-1 during that span. San Antonio is 5-3 straight up and 6-2 ATS in its previous eight showings on the road, and the over is 6-2 during that stretch.

Interestingly, the Spurs are 7-1 straight up and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight H2H duels in Sacramento, and half of these games were finished in the over.

What’s at Stake?

This is a big game for the Kings who are just one game behind the No. 8 seed in the West. The Spurs are in a more comfortable position, but they could be in big trouble if they lose a few games in a row, so we can say there’s a lot at stake for both sides here.

The Spot

Both teams had one day to rest, playing this past Saturday at home.

However, the Spurs will start their eight-game road trip, and after the clash at Sacramento, they will visit the reigning champions Golden State Wednesday night before a back-to-back matchup at Portland. This is why I’ve mentioned a possible losing streak for the Spurs. On the other side, the Kings stay at home this week, and their next rival is Houston Wednesday night.

The Matchup

The Kings have been playing very well at home lately, and it’s a similar case with San Antonio on the road, but the Spurs have never been road warriors. The Kings have already beaten the Spurs at Golden 1 Center this season, but it was back in November and was their first home win over the Spurs since 2014. Buddy Hield will lead the Kings, and he’s averaging 21.9 points and 5.1 rebounds over his last ten games, while De’Aaron Fox is tallying 15.7 points and 6.7 assists in his previous nine apps. On the other side, the Spurs will rely on their dynamic duo, as DeMar DeRozan is averaging 21.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game, while LaMarcus Aldridge is adding 21.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per contest this season.

Sacramento is scoring 109.5 points per 100 possessions (17th in the league) on 46.6% shooting from the field (11th) and 38.1% from beyond the arc (3rd), making 24.9 assists (10th) and grabbing 43.2 rebounds (25th). They are allowing 110.9 points per 100 possessions (tied-20th) on 46.6% shooting from the field (22nd) and 34.4% from beyond the arc (8th).

On the other side, the Spurs are scoring 113.5 points per 100 possessions (5th in the league) on 48.1% shooting from the field (3rd) and 40.8% from beyond the arc (1st), making 25.2 assists (8th) and posting 44.8 rebounds (15th). They are conceding 110.9 points in a return (tied-20th) on 46.4% shooting from the field (21st) and 35.8% from downtown (16th).

The Bets

Considering the stats, we should see a close game, and the odds are suggesting the same thing. Their first H2H duel of the season was decided by five points, and you can take any team to win within one and five points around +130 odds. It’s tough to nail the winner, as both teams are playing well at the moment, so I would pass on this wager and take the totals instead.
Although the first clash was a low-scoring affair, I think we will see a bunch of points on this one.

Both San Antonio and Sacramento are struggling on the defensive end, while they are executing very well on the other side of the ball. Also, both these foes are so dangerous from beyond the arc, so we could easily see a lot of triples tonight. The Kings’ pace is the 2nd-fastest in the league with 103.4 possessions per 48 minutes, while the Spurs are recording 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd), so I’m backing the over on this one.

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