The Miami Heat (27-12) can continue a six-game home winning streak when they go head-to-head against the San Antonio Spurs (17-21) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 222.5 points with Miami set as a 5.5-point favorite. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 15, 2020, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southwest.
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat Free Preview
The Spurs edged the Toronto Raptors in their last outing, 105-104, despite being 4.5-point underdogs. DeMar DeRozan was the top scorer from either team with 25 points on 7-for-12 shooting. The Spurs made 22 of their 30 free throws (73.3 percent) and held the Raptors to an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.0 (below their season average of 22.7). The two teams combined to score 209 points, which finished under the O/U total of 220.
In the Heat’s last game, they were 7.5-point favorites and fell to the New York Knicks, 124-121. Jimmy Butler led Miami in scoring with 25 points on 8-for-15 shooting. New York had a turnover percentage of 5.5 (better than their season average of 12.2). Miami, on the other hand, did a great job of getting and making free throws (23-28; 82.1 percent). Combined, the two clubs scored 245 points, which came in well over the projected point total of 215.5.
The high-octane offense of Miami (fifth in the league with an offensive efficiency of 110.3) will clash against the porous defense of San Antonio (22nd in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 110.0). The Heat should have the advantage on that side of the ball. The Spurs should have an advantage in terms of ball security. They rank 5th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.4 percent). Conversely, the Heat force the eighth-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.3 percent).
Both of these teams have typically finished over the projected point total. San Antonio games have gone over 60.5 percent of the time, while games featuring Miami have gone over 61.5 percent of the time. The Heat come into this game with a clear advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 27-12 SU and 21-16-2 ATS, while the Spurs are 17-21 SU and 14-22-2 ATS.
This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Heat won both matchups played against each other last season. In the most recent matchup, Miami won 110-105. Miami’s 0.558 effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over San Antonio, who had a mark of 0.511.
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat Betting Prediction
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over
The Heat rank 14th in three pointers attempted per game (33.3) while the Spurs rank 29th (27.9).
Miami ranks 20th in steals per game (7.5) while San Antonio ranks 26th (6.6).
San Antonio ranks 11th in fast break points per game (14.4) while Miami ranks 25th (11.1).
Miami ranks 26th in second chance points per game (11.7) while San Antonio ranks 27th (11.6).
San Antonio is 8-8-2 ATS on the road with 11 overs, 6 unders and 1 push.
Miami is 12-5-1 ATS at home with 12 overs and 6 unders.
San Antonio is 1-0 when they allow under 100 points, while Miami is 5-1.
The Spurs are 17-17 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 26-7.
The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while the Spurs rank 15th (45.7).
San Antonio ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while Miami ranks 26th (19.0).
The Spurs rank seventh in blocks per game (5.7) while the Heat rank 27th (4.1).
The Heat rank 23rd in points in the paint per game (45.7) while the Spurs rank 27th (44.4).
Miami ranks 10th in assists per game (25.1) while San Antonio ranks 26th in assists allowed per game (25.6).
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in its last five games.
Across its past five games, San Antonio is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
The Heat have been outscored by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 3.7 points.
During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 119.8 points per game (5.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.6 points per game (1.6 above their season average).