Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Free Pick 01/07/20


Pacific Division foes will clash when the Phoenix Suns (14-22) take on the Sacramento Kings (14-23) at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Phoenix opened as a 5.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 226.5 points. Action starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 7, 2020, and it can be seen on NBC Sports – California.

Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns Betting Preview

The last time the Kings played, they beat the Golden State Warriors, 111-98, comfortably covering as 2.5-point favorites. With 18 points and six rebounds, Trevor Ariza had a solid game for Sacramento. Sacramento’s 0.574 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Golden State, who had a rate of 0.424. The Kings’ mark was above their season average of 0.520, while the Warriors’ was below their season average of 0.487. The two teams combined to put up 209 points, which was well under the O/U total of 228.

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The Suns are hoping for a better outcome after failing to cover as 7-point favorites in their 121-114 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in their last outing. Devin Booker was the game’s high scorer with 40 points on 13-for-20 shooting. Memphis was lights out from beyond the arc (18-42; 42.9 percent). Phoenix, on the other hand, held the Grizzlies to an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.1 (below their season average of 22.2). The two squads combined to put up 235 points, which was just under the O/U total of 236.

These two teams have already met three times this year, with the Suns winning three of them. Booker scored a game-high 32 points in the most recent game, in which the Suns beat the Kings 112-110, covering as 2.5-point underdogs. He also recorded 10 assists. The two teams combined to put up 222 points, which was just 5 points above the projected point total of 217 points. Phoenix had a better offensive rebounding percentage (19.4 vs. 17.5). Sacramento, meanwhile, had a better free throw rate (0.190 vs. 0.151).

In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. Sacramento games have gone under 55.6 percent of the time, while 58.3 percent of games featuring Phoenix have finished over. Both teams have middling straight up (SU) records (14-23 for Sacramento; 14-22 for Phoenix), but the Suns have the edge against the spread (ATS). Phoenix is 20-15-1 ATS, while the Kings are 18-18.

Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Kings, it’s been Buddy Hield, who has averaged 23 points,7.0 rebounds,4.2 assists, while the Suns have received solid contributions from Booker (34 points,7.0 assists).

The aggressive Phoenix offense might be getting to the free throw line a lot in this contest. The Suns currently rank sixth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.215, while Sacramento ranks 19th in FTA rate allowed (0.211). It could also be a sloppy game for the Kings’ offense, which ranks 25th in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.6 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Suns, which forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (14.9 percent).

Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns ATS Prediction

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Suns, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Over


Betting Notes:

The Suns average 18.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the league. The Kings rank 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).

Sacramento ranks fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.9) while Phoenix ranks 10th (12.6).

Phoenix averages 7.8 steals per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Sacramento ranks 24th in steals allowed per game (8.2).

Phoenix ranks 11th in three pointers attempted per game (33.9) while Sacramento ranks 13th in three pointers allowed per game (33.3).

Sacramento is 12-7 ATS on the road, while Phoenix is 10-9-1 ATS at home.

The total has gone over in 14 of the Suns’ 20 home games, while 10 of the Kings’ 19 road games have gone under.

Phoenix is 2-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Sacramento is 7-2.

When scoring more than 100 points, the Kings are 13-16 and the Suns are 14-18.

The Kings rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.1) while the Suns rank 13th (45.2).

Phoenix ranks first in assists per game (28.3) while Sacramento ranks 23rd (22.6).

The Kings rank seventh in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while the Suns rank 26th (5.7).

The Kings rank first in fast break points allowed per game (11.2) while the Suns rank seventh (12.2).

Phoenix ranks 10th in points in the paint per game (48.5) while Sacramento ranks 26th (44.1).

Bettings Trends:

Phoenix is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Over its last five games, Sacramento is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.

The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 1.0 for the season.

During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 111.2 points per game (5.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.6 points per game (3.9 above their season average).

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